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December 15-16 Mixed Bag of Precip


nj2va
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Does the RDPS normally run colder than most models? The Freezing Rain totals are prolific, even if you cut them in half here..
zr_acc.us_ma.png

Anecdotally, the Canadian hi-res stuff tends to run cold and overdo precip.

That said, I’m considering a pivot off from my plans to go to Deep Creek for snow (looking less likely) to head to Staunton if it looks like a serious ice storm. Supposed to head that way Friday night anyway but might arrive a day or two earlier to scout out a real ice storm, if it comes to pass.
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6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Does the RDPS normally run colder than most models? The Freezing Rain totals are prolific, even if you cut them in half here..

zr_acc.us_ma.png

 

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah that's a weenie model.

It bullseyes my county, so no it’s not. Lol

In actuality, I think there is zero chance of 2” of freezing rain verifying here, but would love to see it (minus the requisite power outages and accidents, of course).

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I learned last year that in these marginal setups, these positive snow depth change maps almost never verify for MBY.  But hey, we'll get on the board in some way maybe?
 
gfs_asnowd_neus_15.png

It doesn’t take much looking at the soundings to know that map is unfortunately off base, but it’s a fairly impactful (icy) run for everyone outside of the cities/SE.

It’s not horrifically far off at the mids and pretty close at the surface tho - wouldn’t take too much trending to get the ice impacts further East, as others have already said.
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22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Well we certainly don't need any thing close to the Nov 2018 ice storm over here in the central valley....that was a crazy night booms & cracks and bright lights flashing in the sky.... Although that was more of a prolonged period of lighter rain/heavy drizzle...

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Yeah, increasingly becoming likely Cumberland west to deep creek see ice warning criteria met. Dews are in the teens out there at onset with temps during the storm in the mid to upper 20s. Only positive is precious looks to be moderate to heavy at times which should limit the accretion. But still a potentially high impact event out there followed by upslope snow showers Friday night/Saturday. 

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15 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

One word sleet.

      That's not correct.    The snowfall includes sleet, so those 10:1 maps are useless in any type of mixed event.    The map being shown, though, is the change in snow depth which correctly applies a very low ratio with sleet.     I'm not saying that this GFS map will verify - just saying that it's not the same issue as with 10:1 snowfall maps.

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14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, increasingly becoming likely Cumberland west to deep creek see ice warning criteria met. Dews are in the teens out there at onset with temps during the storm in the mid to upper 20s. Only positive is precious looks to be moderate to heavy at times which should limit the accretion. But still a potentially high impact event out there followed by upslope snow showers Friday night/Saturday. 

Please correct if wrong, but from a purely climo POV high impact all ZR events at DCL are more rare than locations where CAD is climatologically favored.  Meaning, 9/10 times I see ZR in the zones for Garrett, it turns out to be PL/SN or nothing at all.

Noting these things seem to occur as a seasonal trend, and pointing out there was 24 hours of ZR / freezing fog at DCL just this past weekend (forecast verified), and it was anything but a high impact event there (WWA maybe didn't entirely verify).  That said, it did get me wondering about all those depictions of mid level warm air being more than just a modeling anamoly vs. maybe a hint of a sesonal trend (hoping not).

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1 hour ago, RIC_WX said:

Please correct if wrong, but from a purely climo POV high impact all ZR events at DCL are more rare than locations where CAD is climatologically favored.  Meaning, 9/10 times I see ZR in the zones for Garrett, it turns out to be PL/SN or nothing at all.

Noting these things seem to occur as a seasonal trend, and pointing out there was 24 hours of ZR / freezing fog at DCL just this past weekend (forecast verified), and it was anything but a high impact event there (WWA maybe didn't entirely verify).  That said, it did get me wondering about all those depictions of mid level warm air being more than just a modeling anamoly vs. maybe a hint of a sesonal trend (hoping not).

Yes, CAD doesn't hold on as long on the ridges/mountains vs valley areas - places like Cumberland west to Frostburg are better spots for icing.  Similarly, I've seen plenty of setups where Garrett holds onto all snow longer than higher elevations in WV (Canaan) that flip earlier to sleet once the mid levels warm.  In our 6 years of having our house out there, I've been there for a few 0.25"+ ice accretions but wasn't high impact in terms of power disruptions, etc.  The one that does come to mind was maybe 2 (or 3) years ago where Deep Creek got over 0.5" of ice accretion and had power outages and we lost two trees on our property.  I'm terrible at remembering dates/exacts of events and we weren't there for it, but that was one of the more memorable ones that I can recall.  

^^That's a good first call for ice out there IMO

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39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Verbatim, 18z EURO is nasty for the mountains and favored spots but doesn't get much into the metro.

1671123600-rvdPbampJpE.png

 

Unlike past runs, though, it transitions NMD to snow for a time -- basically jumped the trace line ~50m to the south.

1671138000-2FXoTsGHrGk.png

Was just looking through the 18z Euro and agree that its  better for the far western zones in that it flips back to sleet/snow from freezing rain during the event.  The 6” line is close to the M/D border in western MD.

image.thumb.png.85cc2ba8253cd268d15fb980eb783e9c.png

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25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Marginal event so every bit matters -- 18z EPS keeps nearly everyone 1-2F colder at the surface during the event timeframe. 850s are 1-2C colder -- which is a pretty big jump. Can't see 925s unfortunately.

tuvohIl.gif

Sounding at/near IAD during the onset.

BC483056-3D4E-4359-B3F5-06F701E2FB74.jpeg

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