donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Very similar to 2018 actually, that also had 4 storms in March and 1 in April I think? 1996 was similar, 3 4"+ snowstorms in March and 1 in April (for JFK)? March-April 1996 had 2 4" or above snowstorms at JFK Airport. There was an additional 3" storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 1:51 PM, GaWx said: A big part of the problem here and in other CFS Twitter posts is that the CFS is strongly cold biased, especially over snowcover. And the CFS often has snowcover when it isn't realistic. It has snowcover when it shouldn't because it is cold biased. So, it becomes a vicious cycle. Just as an example of this strong CFS cold and snow bias since RDU is one of the cities analyzed, I'll analyze all of the major 0Z 3/8 model runs for hour 132 at RDU (for 12Z on Monday 3/13): First of all, RDU NWS has a forecast for RDU Sun night of rain and a low in the lower 40s: "SUNDAY NIGHT RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT." The 0Z 3/8 CFS has ~1" of snowcover as of 12Z on 3/13 because it is cold biased and had a high near 36 the day before with wintry precip falling vs a high from the mid 40s to low 50s on the other models with rain/no snowcover on the other models: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=snod-imp&rh=2023030800&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Partially as a result of this snowcover, the 0Z 3/8 CFS has RDU at an unrealistically cold 32 as of 12Z on 3/13: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023030800&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Now, I'll compare the CFS' 32 with the 0Z 3/8 runs of the other major models and the already mentioned NWS for 12Z on 3/13 at RDU (they all have rain and no snowcover): Euro 49 UKMET 43 GFS 43 CMC 42 ICON 42 NWS 42 CFS 32 Followup for @donsutherland1 and others: 1. RDU did actually get snow and sleet yesterday, but there was only a trace vs that CFS run's wintry precip that lead to 1" of snowcover. 2. The actual high yesterday was only 41. So, although the CFS' ~36 did end up too cold, the other models with their mid 40s to low 50s were all too warm with some ~10 too warm. 3. The actual 12Z (8AM EDT) temperature today was 40. So, the CFS' 32 verified 8 too cold. But the Euro's 49 was 9 too warm. The other 4 along with the NWS were also too warm but only by 2-3. 4. In summary the CFS verified too snowy and cold as expected, but the others were too warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: March-April 1996 had 2 4" or above snowstorms at JFK Airport. There was an additional 3" storm. Don, was there a 7 inch snowstorm in the middle of March that melted on the same day, I remember something like that. But that 7 inch report was from Massapequa. The sun came out as soon as the snow ended and it warmed up quickly. It was an amazing day, we had mid winter and late spring on the same day lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 every storm has the same nam run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: every storm has the same nam run You never really spoke about this storm. Deep down I knew we had nothing at the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Noise canceling earbuds are firmly inserted so I don't have to listen to all of this wasted precip 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: This is the run that gave NYC 36 inches lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: This is the run that gave NYC 36 inches lol It was still a good storm though we had a foot of snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2023 Author Share Posted March 14, 2023 23 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: You never really spoke about this storm. Deep down I knew we had nothing at the coast He actually had lots to say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Good morning all. It’s been a difficult cold season for frosty. Now with snowflakes falling on a wet postage stamp he can sense the siren call of soon to bloom daffodils. Stay well all, as always … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 storm is a complete bust for rain in the nyc area a few days ago 1.50 inches was predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Gore webcam looks better than I can remember ... they're reporting 24" from this storm so far and 43" for first two weeks of March. Great stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 6 hours ago, nycwinter said: storm is a complete bust for rain in the nyc area a few days ago 1.50 inches was predicted yeah this would've been a 6 to 10" snowstorm for most had it been cold enough. Probably more east as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 20 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: enjoyed the snow too much wind anyone who weenies me will be condemned and sanctioned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: in 12 hours you will be unable to use the global financial system i hope you have a lot of dogecoins saved up my man Seeing as my financial adviser is @snowboy19 and his reckless capitalistic mindset all I can say is, I have the fascists on my side. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 32 minutes ago, Nibor said: Seeing as my financial adviser is @snowboy19 and his reckless capitalistic mindset all I can say is, I have the fascists on my side. well snowboy19 is the yin to snowman19's yang so that's no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Since I’m into climo convos and feel this is more appropriate space to discuss than the storm thread what if we broke down NYC metro into following zones that seem to relatively have similar climo. NJ Coast NYC/LI/Central NJ Eastern Bergen/Southern/Westchester/CT Coast Western Bergen, Passaic, Rockland, Northern Westchester/inland SW CT Sussex, Orange, Putnam, Eastern Ulster, Dutchess Sullivan, Western Ulster 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Since I’m into climo convos and feel this is more appropriate space to discuss than the storm thread what if we broke down NYC metro into following zones that seem to relatively have similar climo. NJ Coast NYC/LI/Central NJ Eastern Bergen/Southern/Westchester/CT Coast Western Bergen, Passaic, Rockland, Northern Westchester/inland SW CT Sussex, Orange, Putnam, Eastern Ulster, Dutchess Sullivan, Western Ulster Morris County?. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 22 minutes ago, North and West said: Morris County? . Honestly less familiar with that area but I’d assume similar to western Bergen? Depends also if it has elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Honestly less familiar with that area but I’d assume similar to western Bergen? Depends also if it has elevation? Further west than most of Bergen; the climate is similar to Mahwah.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, North and West said: Further west than most of Bergen; the climate is similar to Mahwah. . Yea I’d assume similar to other places along 287 corridor. I’d probably lump in it with the 4th zone on my list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 @donsutherland1 Looks like Joe Bastardi’s forecast of -5F for temps and 20+ inches of snow for NYC from 3/1 - 4/15 is in some trouble….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @donsutherland1 Looks like Joe Bastardi’s forecast of -5F for temps and 20+ inches of snow for NYC from 3/1 - 4/15 is in some trouble….. IDK why anyone follows him anymore. I haven’t read one of his forecasts in at least 10 years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @donsutherland1 Looks like Joe Bastardi’s forecast of -5F for temps and 20+ inches of snow for NYC from 3/1 - 4/15 is in some trouble….. It is. Things are falling apart more and more each day. Only a March 16-April 15, 1956 outcome would produce both the snow and cold he forecasts. In coming days even that won't be enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 5 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: Since I’m into climo convos and feel this is more appropriate space to discuss than the storm thread what if we broke down NYC metro into following zones that seem to relatively have similar climo. NJ Coast NYC/LI/Central NJ Eastern Bergen/Southern/Westchester/CT Coast Western Bergen, Passaic, Rockland, Northern Westchester/inland SW CT Sussex, Orange, Putnam, Eastern Ulster, Dutchess Sullivan, Western Ulster I wholeheartedly endorse this list. And as much as I love Dons posts, I wish he could take out Philadelphia from the daily updates and any reference to it. Regarding the zones you propose Philadelphia is only relevant to a small portion of zone 2, no others. They have their own forum let them stay there. Maybe substitute HPN for Philadelphia in the temperature references? In the updates it much better serves regions 2-6 than any reference to Philadelphia. Just one Eagle hating persons opinion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 58 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I wholeheartedly endorse this list. And as much as I love Dons posts, I wish he could take out Philadelphia from the daily updates and any reference to it. Regarding the zones you propose Philadelphia is only relevant to a small portion of zone 2, no others. They have their own forum let them stay there. Maybe substitute HPN for Philadelphia in the temperature references? In the updates it much better serves regions 2-6 than any reference to Philadelphia. Just one Eagle hating persons opinion. I could go on forever about the different LI climate zones by themselves and what’s favored here vs NYC but I digress lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 6 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: Since I’m into climo convos and feel this is more appropriate space to discuss than the storm thread what if we broke down NYC metro into following zones that seem to relatively have similar climo. NJ Coast NYC/LI/Central NJ Eastern Bergen/Southern/Westchester/CT Coast Western Bergen, Passaic, Rockland, Northern Westchester/inland SW CT Sussex, Orange, Putnam, Eastern Ulster, Dutchess Sullivan, Western Ulster You know the big problem this would solve, the constant references like "oh boy just saw the Euro we're done". And I always think who's done? It's a big forum, is Suffolk done Nassau, the Jersey coast, SW CT, Orange Sussex and Putnam, NYC? I dream of a world where we can declare the GFS says we're done for zones 1 & 2, but 5 & 6 get buried. Rgem just annihilated zones 3 & 4, 5 & 6 not so much. That is my Utopia, a man can dream can't he? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 19 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: enjoyed the snow too much wind anyone who weenies me will be condemned and sanctioned Good evening Will. GasX …… never leave home without it. Stay well and deflated, as always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 You know the big problem this would solve, the constant references like "oh boy just saw the Euro we're done". And I always think who's done? It's a big forum, is Suffolk done Nassau, the Jersey coast, SW CT, Orange Sussex and Putnam, NYC? I dream of a world where we can declare the GFS says we're done for zones 1 & 2, but 5 & 6 get buried. Rgem just annihilated zones 3 & 4, 5 & 6 not so much. That is my Utopia, a man can dream can't he?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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