LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 18 hours ago, Rjay said: It's favorable. There's just no true arctic air anywhere. Gotta rely on dynamics and that's a tough game to play. thats why you cant be too optimistic about this period, everything is down to nowcasting rain snow lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 hours ago, North and West said: Wild stuff if confirmed. . moral of the story : we need to lower air regulations to counteract climate change lol I remember a similar thing happened when the Clean Air Act took effect in the 70s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Snow:Rain Ratios for New York City for March (1950-2022): 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Snow:Rain Ratios for New York City for March (1950-2022): This is excellent Don, but wouldn't this apply to the entire winter? I made the following chart 37 or above-- doesn't accumulate 33-36 5:1 30-33 10:1 28-30 12:1 25-33 15:1 20-25 20:1 15-20 25:1 under 15 40:1 Only the January 2004 event fulfilled the highest snow ratio category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: This is excellent Don, but wouldn't this apply to the entire winter? I made the following chart 37 or above-- doesn't accumulate 33-36 5:1 30-33 10:1 28-30 12:1 25-33 15:1 20-25 20:1 15-20 25:1 under 15 40:1 Only the January 2004 event fulfilled the highest snow ratio category. No. This approximation doesn’t consider conditions in the snow growth zone. Winter snow growth is usually better resulting in higher ratios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: No. This approximation doesn’t consider conditions in the snow growth zone. Winter snow growth is usually better resulting in higher ratios. Yes and also higher winds can result in lower ratios. This is just a handy way of using surface temps to try and predict snowfall amounts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes and also higher winds can result in lower ratios. This is just a handy way of using surface temps to try and predict snowfall amounts lol. When it comes to each storm, using the soundings is far better. My point was to illustrate that in March, one should be cautious about using 10:1 maps. To illustrate my point about winters and somewhat higher ratios, for January, 10:1 or above ratios for 32° or below temperatures in NYC occurred 46% of the time and 12:1 or above ratios occurred 25% of the time. 15:1 or above ratios occurred 13.5% of the time, just slightly below the frequency of 12:1 ratios for March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I would love to have some little cabin at 7,000 feet in the Sierra and just get epically buried for 6 months. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12 hours ago, tdp146 said: I would love to have some little cabin at 7,000 feet in the Sierra and just get epically buried for 6 months. Be careful with that, 11 bodies found already, massive power outages and those people were trapped in their homes under all that snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Be careful with that, 11 bodies found already, massive power outages and those people were trapped in their homes under all that snow. Good afternoon Liberty. It certainly gives credence to the “be careful what you wish for” truism. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 42. And lite rain in new city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Also 42 and light rain. We are now London. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: Also 42 and light rain. We are now London. London had a huge snowstorm this season, I think about a foot of snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 We are now not London. Lisbon? Catania? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 19 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: We are now not London. Lisbon? Catania? I think those might be better comparisons lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Be careful with that, 11 bodies found already, massive power outages and those people were trapped in their homes under all that snow. And little cabin's roof might collapse when it has 4" of rain soak into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 28 minutes ago, jm1220 said: And little cabin's roof might collapse when it has 4" of rain soak into it. We had that a week or so after the January 1996 blizzard..... roofs of homes and a supermarket collapsed when we had that big rain storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzwalker Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 At Sams Point near Ellenville last Monday. Snow was found. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 12 hours ago, Blizzwalker said: At Sams Point near Ellenville last Monday. Snow was found. wow I love those deep blue skies! How high up is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzwalker Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow I love those deep blue skies! How high up is that? About 2300 ft. I did saturate the blue a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 I can't believe I have to say this, but an "atmospheric river" isn't a real river (the geological definition of a river requires that it MUST be liquid!) but it's an easier way to visualize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 i am sick of this winter! i'm literally done tracking for this storm too, it just doesn't want to produce i'm done. Good luck to eastern Long Island and New England this storm looks to underperform for most in my opinion but I hope i'm wrong but i'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The 18z gfs shut down the whole forum, never seen one run do that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said: The 18z gfs shut down the whole forum, never seen one run do that. Maybe in a way it's a good thing lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe in a way it's a good thing lol? The 18z euro just woke it back up lol amazing what these models do to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 10:16 AM, donsutherland1 said: Periodic update on the extreme forecast for NYC for 3/1-4/15: 5° below normal; 20" snow. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58486-winter-banter-thread/?do=findComment&comment=6823796 Based on the latest guidance, the first 10 days of March will average around 1° below normal. For the overall 3/1-5/15 period to average 5° below normal, the remainder of the period would need to average 6.1° below normal. The 1991-2020 normal temperature for 3/11-4/15 is 46.9°. That means the period would need to have a mean temperature of 40.8° or below for the extreme forecast to verify. The last time that happened was in 1956. Future updates will be based on actual data. Don, With NYC at +2 for 3/1-11, it will be an even bigger challenge for JB to get his -5 for 3/1-4/15. The latest forecasts seem to suggest that NYC may cool off enough to allow 3/1-20 to almost get back down to right at the 1991-2020 normal. But even if so, that would still require -9 for 3/21-4/15. The 3/21-4/15 cold in both 1956 and 1940 would get him close (to a -4). The last time it almost got to -9 for 3/21-4/15 was right at the turn of the century, the 20th century! That 1900 cold would be just cold enough for him to get his -5 with rounding. The last one to get him -5 without rounding was 1888. So, his chances continue to drop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Don, With NYC at +2 for 3/1-11, it will be an even bigger challenge for JB to get his -5 for 3/1-4/15. The latest forecasts seem to suggest that NYC may cool off enough to allow 3/1-20 to almost get back down to right at the 1991-2020 normal. But even if so, that would still require -9 for 3/21-4/15. The 3/21-4/15 cold in both 1956 and 1940 would get him close (to a -4). The last time it almost got to -9 for 3/21-4/15 was right at the turn of the century, the 20th century! That 1900 cold would be just cold enough for him to get his -5 with rounding. The last one to get him -5 without rounding was 1888. So, his chances continue to drop. at this rate March may even not finish below normal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 this has to be one of the worst storm threads I’ve had the misfortune of reading in a long time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Nibor said: this has to be one of the worst storm threads I’ve had the misfortune of reading in a long time. Good morning Nibor. I enjoyed the Winter Weather Briefing and the Sams Point photo. Stay well, as always …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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