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Winter Banter Thread


Rjay
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May I make a meta-banter comment/question?  One thing that always amazes me on this board is that I often see an account post, don't recognize the handle, and then see that it's made thousands (sometimes tens of thousands) of posts, and has been on the board for years, yet, unless I'm totally losing my marbles,  I'm seeing the handle for the first time.  I can't figure out how that's possible.  Is it just me?

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1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

May I make a meta-banter comment/question?  One thing that always amazes me on this board is that I often see an account post, don't recognize the handle, and then see that it's made thousands (sometimes tens of thousands) of posts, and has been on the board for years, yet, unless I'm totally losing my marbles,  I'm seeing the handle for the first time.  I can't figure out how that's possible.  Is it just me?

Any examples? People change their handles too so that's a possibility 

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I bet March 1967 had a larger snowcover, that was a historic winter with historic cold in March.

 

First, corrections for 1956, as I took the numbers from the wrong column:

March 16-17: 4.2"

March 18-19: 12.4"

In terms of snowcover, March 1967 easily had more than 1956 at Patchogue (2 N):

1956:

Peak snowcover: 10"; Average monthly snowcover: 0.6"; Biggest snowfall: 12.4", March 18-19

1967:

Peak snowcover: 15"; Average monthly snowcover: 2.5"; Biggest snowfall: 16.1", March 22-23

 

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

First, corrections for 1956, as I took the numbers from the wrong column:

March 16-17: 4.2"

March 18-19: 12.4"

In terms of snowcover, March 1967 easily had more than 1956 at Patchogue (2 N):

1956:

Peak snowcover: 10"; Average monthly snowcover: 0.6"; Biggest snowfall: 12.4", March 18-19

1967:

Peak snowcover: 15"; Average monthly snowcover: 2.5"; Biggest snowfall: 16.1", March 22-23

 

Thanks, Don!  Is that March 1967 snowstorm considered the greatest spring snowstorm for our area?  I think it eeks out that April snowstorm from the early 1900s that dropped 19" in PHL but only about 11" here.

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13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, Don!  Is that March 1967 snowstorm considered the greatest spring snowstorm for our area?  I think it eeks out that April snowstorm from the early 1900s that dropped 19" in PHL but only about 11" here.

Southampton had 16.0" in the April 3-4, 1915 snowstorm.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Southampton had 16.0" in the April 3-4, 1915 snowstorm.

Don,

 You might find it interesting that NC cities such as Raleigh, Greensboro, and Fayetteville had 5-10" of snow from this early April of 1915 snowstorm! These are by far the heaviest April snows there on record. A trace even fell at least as far south as Columbia, SC. Many all-time record April low highs (still to this day) were set deep into the SE (including Jacksonville) along with cold rains. Savannah had a high as low as 46 and lows in the upper 30s with rain.

Edit:  Per meteorologist Eric Webb, this was at the tail end of a moderate El Niño.

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1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Don,

 You might find it interesting that NC cities such as Raleigh, Greensboro, and Fayetteville had 5-10" of snow from this. These are by far the heaviest April snows there on record. A trace even fell at least as far south as Columbia, SC. Many all-time record April low highs (still to this day) were set deep into the SE (including Jacksonville) along with cold rains. Savannah had a high as low as 46 and lows in the upper 30s with rain.

Yes. Raleigh picked up 10". A photo from North Carolina's State Archives:

RaleighApril1915-2.jpg

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21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

amazing, 19 inches in Philly?  someone in our area must have gotten 20 inches out of this

 

The storm's heaviest snow extended from eastern PA across central NJ. There were a lot of 16" and 17" amounts in that area with Philadelphia's 19.4" being perhaps the highest figure.

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29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The storm's heaviest snow extended from eastern PA across central NJ. There were a lot of 16" and 17" amounts in that area with Philadelphia's 19.4" being perhaps the highest figure.

ironic that we were fringed in mid April lol

must have been a very long duration very cold storm, 10:1 or less?

 

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Thank God it is officially, painfully, finally and thankfully in the books / over and done with !!!! Next FALL -> I will take a Halloween snowsfall or an early November snowstorm and pray that it does not mean a less snowy winter later. Buh Bye winter of 2023 don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out and Let the countdown to next fall and more importantly winter begin !!! :clap:

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34 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Thank God it is officially, painfully, finally and thankfully in the books / over and done with !!!! Next FALL -> I will take a Halloween snowsfall or an early November snowstorm and pray that it does not mean a less snowy winter later. Buh Bye winter of 2023 don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out and Let the countdown to next fall and more importantly winter begin !!! :clap:

Easiest winter grade EVER

F-----------------------------------------------------------------------

that F could stand for a few other things too lol

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Yeah, I don’t have any clever jokes or anything, this winter just absolutely sucked. Miserable. Downright depressing. 

It’s tough for me because winter is my season, where I’m engaged and on pins and needles with each model run. I don’t feel that for any other season. 

I’ve tracked tornadoes and tornado outbreaks my whole life, and I’ll track hurricanes of course. But northeast winters are the only season I have any real investment in. I’m just not a warm weather guy. 

Back to my volcano watching. At least the Aleutians might be waking up. 

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, I don’t have any clever jokes or anything, this winter just absolutely sucked. Miserable. Downright depressing. 

It’s tough for me because winter is my season, where I’m engaged and on pins and needles with each model run. I don’t feel that for any other season. 

I’ve tracked tornadoes and tornado outbreaks my whole life, and I’ll track hurricanes of course. But northeast winters are the only season I have any real investment in. I’m just not a warm weather guy. 

Back to my volcano watching. At least the Aleutians might be waking up. 

Just wait til you start tracking a historic heatwave!  You'll love it!  July 1993 got me hooked!

 

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27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Just wait til you start tracking a historic heatwave!  You'll love it!  July 1993 got me hooked!

 

You have no idea how much I pray for a VEI 7 to knock us back a few decades of warming. It's one of the only things that can (temporarily of course, but I'll take it).

The thought of going through something like that recent PNW heatwave gives me pre-emptive heatstroke.

Lol nah man you do you, I respect it. I just suspect the way things are headed you'll have plenty of heatwaves to track. I'd like the opportunity to track at least one serious cold wave that isn't a short, sharp cold shot. Yes the Boston blast this year was impressive but it was here and gone within like 36 hours. Give me one serious several week long cold wave, of real, legitimate 18th-19th century cold focused into the northeast. And I'll feel a lot better. I'd even happily let you get your giga heatwave the following summer :D.

You know what I mean, though? I just feel like the scales are so imbalanced toward warm seasons that aside from me preferring the cold it’s just so boring anymore to hear about heat and warmth. Not even boring, borderline upsetting. It seems to be the main thing we still do well around here, apart from an isolated major snowstorm. January last year was technically a cold month, but comparatively? Weak sauce. Like I said, give me some proper 18th century ‘Washington crossing the frozen Delaware’ level cold that doesn’t get booted out the next day by the seat of its pants, and I’ll be satisfied for a while. 

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33 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

You have no idea how much I pray for a VEI 7 to knock us back a few decades of warming. It's one of the only things that can (temporarily of course, but I'll take it).

The thought of going through something like that recent PNW heatwave gives me pre-emptive heatstroke.

Lol nah man you do you, I respect it. I just suspect the way things are headed you'll have plenty of heatwaves to track. I'd like the opportunity to track at least one serious cold wave that isn't a short, sharp cold shot. Yes the Boston blast this year was impressive but it was here and gone within like 36 hours. Give me one serious several week long cold wave, of real, legitimate 18th-19th century cold focused into the northeast. And I'll feel a lot better. I'd even happily let you get your giga heatwave the following summer :D.

You know what I mean, though? I just feel like the scales are so imbalanced toward warm seasons that aside from me preferring the cold it’s just so boring anymore to hear about heat and warmth. Not even boring, borderline upsetting. It seems to be the main thing we still do well around here, apart from an isolated major snowstorm. January last year was technically a cold month, but comparatively? Weak sauce. Like I said, give me some proper 18th century ‘Washington crossing the frozen Delaware’ level cold that doesn’t get booted out the next day by the seat of its pants, and I’ll be satisfied for a while. 

well thats why 1993-94 and 2009-11 were ideal.....think about it, we had 102 degrees in July 1993 and then -2 in January 1994!  In 2009-11 we had 20 inch snowstorms and then 104 degree heat and then back to 20 inch snowstorms!

 

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Continuing the discussion arising from high-visibility extreme forecasts continually pushed on Social Media that regularly fail, I ran through numerous tweets from calls about weather, climate, and markets. I also relied on literature relevant to forecasting and cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, anchoring, escalation of commitment, etc. 

Based on this assessment, I believe I have reasonably captured the elements of bad forecasting frameworks (I limited domain/contextual knowledge here to weather/climate given that this is a weather board) and those that define good forecasting.

Good forecasting should not be confused with perfect forecasting. Good forecasting is defined by forecasts that consistently, but not always, prove realistic or reasonable against the outcomes of those forecasts. Error cannot be eliminated. However, in most cases, enormous errors are infrequent.

image.png.ae75f16199fa55273a41b370d852b670.png

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53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Continuing the discussion arising from high-visibility extreme forecasts continually pushed on Social Media that regularly fail, I ran through numerous tweets from calls about weather, climate, and markets. I also relied on literature relevant to forecasting and cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, anchoring, escalation of commitment, etc. 

Based on this assessment, I believe I have reasonably captured the elements of bad forecasting frameworks (I limited domain/contextual knowledge here to weather/climate given that this is a weather board) and those that define good forecasting.

Good forecasting should not be confused with perfect forecasting. Good forecasting is defined by forecasts that consistently, but not always, prove realistic or reasonable against the outcomes of those forecasts. Error cannot be eliminated. However, in most cases, enormous errors are infrequent.

image.png.ae75f16199fa55273a41b370d852b670.png

Today is the actual first day of spring and it feels like it, the birds as well recognize it as the first day of spring as I've seen them doing their normal spring rituals for the first time this year.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Today is the actual first day of spring and it feels like it, the birds as well recognize it as the first day of spring as I've seen them doing their normal spring rituals for the first time this year.

Astronomical spring arrived yesterday. Today is the first full day of astronomical spring and it certainly feels like the season. If you're outdoors, enjoy it.

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Astronomical spring arrived yesterday. Today is the first full day of astronomical spring and it certainly feels like the season. If you're outdoors, enjoy it.

He’s totally gone off the deep end this winter. This is way worse than his “vodka cold” bust of 01-02. He’s Casey Jones on the runaway train
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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


He’s totally gone off the deep end this winter. This is way worse than his “vodka cold” bust of 01-02. He’s Casey Jones on the runaway train

Dude it has snowed many times in the past in late March but this time it will not.

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22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


He’s totally gone off the deep end this winter. This is way worse than his “vodka cold” bust of 01-02. He’s Casey Jones on the runaway train

I saw it. The control run is among the worst tools when it lacks support from the other ensemble members and when there is no run-to-run continuity. New England very likely hasn't seen its last snowfall, but there is little support for the kind of solution shown on that map.

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Continuing the look at extreme forecasts and forecasting failure...

The gap between what's needed for forecast verification for an extreme March 1-April 15 scenario for New York City has continued to swell. No prior cases exist within New York City's climate that would even approach what is now needed to verify the forecast.

image.png.32fb3cbfa1db3fb12be936edca48cbaa.png

Blame is now being deflected. The implied assumption is that the warmth of the oceans precluded a good forecast.

image.png.b53630a34bc77e1735a824f5ee9fb116.png

I could not disagree more strongly with the implied assumption. We are not living in 1985. 1985 is completely irrelevant. Today's circumstances are what matters.

As noted in discussions earlier in this thread, the extreme forecast for a March 1-April 15 temperature anomaly of 5° below normal and 20” of snow in New York City was always very likely to fail, especially in today's warmer climate. The same held true for very cold and snowy forecasts for Boston, Philadelphia, Providence, and Washington, DC for the same timeframe.

The all but certain high-profile forecasting failures in question are directly the result of the forecaster's denial of climate change. That he is now "waking up" to today's much warmer ocean temperatures is a consequence of having been unaware of what was actually occurring. He was rejecting science and stubbornly clinging to an increasingly misaligned forecasting framework all the while things were changing dramatically. 

Had he accepted the science related to climate change, he would have:

•    Understood why the oceans are warming (they absorb 90% of the heat from the enhanced greenhouse effect) and why they will continue to warm for the foreseeable future.
•    Recognized that the shift in ocean temperatures and the increased incidence of marine heatwaves have large-scale implications for the MJO, synoptic patterns, etc.
•    Known that old analogs from a colder climate regime that no longer exists are irrelevant or even misleading.

There's a lot of high quality and accessible literature available on climate change.  He should ignore the siren call of the dying climate denial movement. He should turn to science for the answers.

Acceptance of scientific reality, even now, would very likely lead to far better forecasts. Acceptance of science would have helped avoid some high-profile forecasting failures. Ignorance or rejection of crucial domain and contextual knowledge, such as that related to climate change and its implications, can only undermine forecast quality and amplify the risk of error.

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32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Continuing the look at extreme forecasts and forecasting failure...

The gap between what's needed for forecast verification for an extreme March 1-April 15 scenario for New York City has continued to swell. No prior cases exist within New York City's climate that would even approach what is now needed to verify the forecast.

image.png.32fb3cbfa1db3fb12be936edca48cbaa.png

Blame is now being deflected. The implied assumption is that the warmth of the oceans precluded a good forecast.

image.png.b53630a34bc77e1735a824f5ee9fb116.png

I could not disagree more strongly with the implied assumption. We are not living in 1985. 1985 is completely irrelevant. Today's circumstances are what matters.

As noted in discussions earlier in this thread, the extreme forecast for a March 1-April 15 temperature anomaly of 5° below normal and 20” of snow in New York City was always very likely to fail, especially in today's warmer climate. The same held true for very cold and snowy forecasts for Boston, Philadelphia, Providence, and Washington, DC for the same timeframe.

The all but certain high-profile forecasting failures in question are directly the result of the forecaster's denial of climate change. That he is now "waking up" to today's much warmer ocean temperatures is a consequence of having been unaware of what was actually occurring. He was rejecting science and stubbornly clinging to an increasingly misaligned forecasting framework all the while things were changing dramatically. 

Had he accepted the science related to climate change, he would have:

•    Understood why the oceans are warming (they absorb 90% of the heat from the enhanced greenhouse effect) and why they will continue to warm for the foreseeable future.
•    Recognized that the shift in ocean temperatures and the increased incidence of marine heatwaves have large-scale implications for the MJO, synoptic patterns, etc.
•    Known that old analogs from a colder climate regime that no longer exists are irrelevant or even misleading.

There's a lot of high quality and accessible literature available on climate change.  He should ignore the siren call of the dying climate denial movement. He should turn to science for the answers.

Acceptance of scientific reality, even now, would very likely lead to far better forecasts. Acceptance of science would have helped avoid some high-profile forecasting failures. Ignorance or rejection of crucial domain and contextual knowledge, such as that related to climate change and its implications, can only undermine forecast quality and amplify the risk of error.

Don,

 JB sounds desperate and he's clearly not admitting to his impending major forecast failure. So now he's citing underwater volcanoes as a potential indirect main cause of GW as you've undoubtedly read:

 
75% of volcanic activity is underwater and we know virtually nothing about it . Given that even Al Gore admits how hot the center of the earth is, would it not stand to reason that scrutiny of that input should be a major priority?"
--------------
 
 Where the heck is he getting this from? What do you know about underwater volcanoes and their effect on ocean temperatures? In trying to be as open-minded as possible to what sounds to me like BS, is there any reasonable chance that they can be having a significant effect on ocean temperatures? Is it possible for the absolutely massive volume of water in the oceans to somehow be significantly affected? I don't see it, but still want to read your feeling about this.
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9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Don,

 JB sounds desperate and he's clearly not admitting to his impending major forecast failure. So now he's citing underwater volcanoes as a potential indirect main cause of GW as you've undoubtedly read:

 
75% of volcanic activity is underwater and we know virtually nothing about it . Given that even Al Gore admits how hot the center of the earth is, would it not stand to reason that scrutiny of that input should be a major priority?"
--------------
 
 Where the heck is he getting this from? What do you know about underwater volcanoes and their effect on ocean temperatures? In trying to be as open-minded as possible to what sounds to me like BS, is there any reasonable chance that they can be having a significant effect on ocean temperatures? Is it possible for the absolutely massive volume of water in the oceans to somehow be significantly affected? I don't see it, but still want to read your feeling about this.

There's no basis to the claim about volcanoes. In fact, oceans are warming fastest closer to the surface. That's the opposite of what one would expect from the bottom-up warming that would be occurring had volcanoes and geothermal activity been responsible.

image.thumb.png.b753248f703d336124d0f78d27e35004.png

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content

 

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1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

I never know when to apply it.  They say as soon as the forsynthia starts to bloom.  

That’s a general rule of thumb. You want consistent soil temps in the 50s which seems to come earlier and earlier each year. That said, under best case scenarios the preventer MAY last four months so if it goes down too early you can still get some late season crabgrass. There are various types of crabgrass that germinate at different times of the season. 

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