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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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52 minutes ago, Ji said:

i always try to start the season with normalcy and a new "ji"....it tends to fall apart between Dec 26-January 3 when all the models show an end to winter and eternal SE ridge

One excellent solution to maintain reality is do not consider anything beyond 5 days as a forecast.  When a 1040 high in the right place is represented in the 5 day or less then we have something.  When it’s shown in the 7-15 day it’s useless. . 

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO vs. everyone else for Fri/Sat. Best run in several cycles — too bad everything else is drying the system up.

f72ab20e8bb96e2dca8bf5ed0a6e86d4.jpg

I suppose there was a time when I would take the euro verbatim over the other models, but sadly those days are gone. It’s kind of a weird depiction that doesn’t make a lot of sense IMO, but here’s to hoping that this is the beginning of a trend reversal!

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Good news is that the “pattern change”, such as it’s morphed into, seems locked in on all the ensemble systems and the Op runs are generally reflecting that as well if that makes a difference to you. Next week’s big cutter plus the Siberian PV initiate this. Even earlier, this late weekend storm also seems to play a part by blowing up offshore and helping rebuild the -NAO. 
 

After the cutter, we get a -EPO/-AO/-NAO combo, but it also comes with probably a -PNA. Ironically (??), this is very much like what the pattern was supposed to be circa thanksgiving weekend. But with the -EPO, we look to get some cross polar flow and rebuild the cold in Canada. That is an overrunning/southern slider type pattern, but it can be very productive. Don’t want a big wound up low still, which could cut. Also don’t want that -PNA to dig to Baja. 
 

But seems we are getting a pattern change finally. 

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29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good news is that the “pattern change”, such as it’s morphed into, seems locked in on all the ensemble systems and the Op runs are generally reflecting that as well if that makes a difference to you. Next week’s big cutter plus the Siberian PV initiate this. Even earlier, this late weekend storm also seems to play a part by blowing up offshore and helping rebuild the -NAO. 
 

After the cutter, we get a -EPO/-AO/-NAO combo, but it also comes with probably a -PNA. Ironically (??), this is very much like what the pattern was supposed to be circa thanksgiving weekend. But with the -EPO, we look to get some cross polar flow and rebuild the cold in Canada. That is an overrunning/southern slider type pattern, but it can be very productive. Don’t want a big wound up low still, which could cut. Also don’t want that -PNA to dig to Baja. 
 

But seems we are getting a pattern change finally. 

for some reason I wondered why you were laughing after you said "Also don't want that -PNA to dig"

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