December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[frd]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One troubling feature, even on the better looking long range guidance, the central pacific ridge is still healthy and centered exactly where we don't want it.  The EPS at times is getting a good look by extending that ridge all the way into western N American and even at times linking with the AO/NAO.  But that's just tenuous at best and unlikely a sustainable longwave pattern. 

Several thoughts -  the impact later in a season when the Nina starts to weaken, and if so, the Pac might improve in Feb to March, even though most Ninas are front loaded  in our area cold and snow-wise.  

Also, we are nearing the potential for a - 4 SD AO.  Implications for another - AO regime later in the winter seems a higher probability. 

Snow cover, during the past 5 years NH snow cover has been very impressive. many thought with such a wide expanse of snow cover over the NH and especially over North America it would increase the odds of a cold Jan the last few years. But, what evolved the last few years is around mid December most of the North America snow cover was reduced drastically during a turn to warmer conditions accompanied by a - PNA, + AO,  + NAO regime.  History may not repeat this December to the degree of the last few Decembers. 

If we can keep the snow cover and repeat in Jan with a - EPO reload / - AO / - NAO we might score .  However,  we still need the Pac to improve somewhat, at  least for a short window of time.  Even the end of this month may exhibit a short window for snowfall. 

 

[frd]

The Pac can not get modeled correctly.  Or,  what psu said.  Don't assume any colder scenarios until inside day 7 . 

However,  there have been looks such as the trough in the West with mild air over the East that did have change rapidly in a week's time leading to  East Coast snow. 

 

 

[poolz1]

I don't know if saying the can is being kicked or things are "delayed" is correct?  I mean, losing the TPV rolling under the block to SE Can and becoming a stable 50/50 feature forced the whole pattern to take on a different look.  That TPV was the original catalyst for cold mid and low level flow and would be in place right now.  We are now required to manufacture our own beast of a 50/50 or wait for the PAC to cooperate.  This is different from modeling being slow on the cold press and things are just taking their time evolving.  

[CAPE]

I have said this before, but in recent ENSO neutral/Nina/weak ass Nino winters, since 2016, the -NAO periods(mostly bootleg) have generally been too marginal (with stale/ Pacific origin cold) to get it to snow in the MA lowlands. Best outcomes have been in more progressive patterns during periods where the PAC was more favorable, mostly -EPO, with real deal cold air delivery. More of a thread the needle situation but it seems to work out better esp in a Nina. Need cold first! HL blocking during a CP moderate Nino has been gold- maybe we get that combo next winter, and we can see if that still works.

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I don't know if saying the can is being kicked or things are "delayed" is correct?  I mean, losing the TPV rolling under the block to SE Can and becoming a stable 50/50 feature forced the whole pattern to take on a different look.  That TPV was the original catalyst for cold mid and low level flow and would be in place right now.  We are now required to manufacture our own beast of a 50/50 or wait for the PAC to cooperate.  This is different from modeling being slow on the cold press and things are just taking their time evolving.  

Bingo

[psuhoffman]

@frd I agree with most of what you said...and its not hopeless, but one thing I wanted to point out...there have been a few times I can remember people "banking" on the nina fading thing...but I see no statistical evidence it really increases our chances of snowfall.  In the last 50 years there are 4 Nina's that were fading significantly during the winter season.  1971-72, 83-84, 2011-12, and 2016-17.  None of them had a blockbuster finish.  Almost all the snow in 1972 did come in Feb but it was from one really fluke storm, maybe the weirdest of all the KU's that defied pattern and normal expectations.  1984 did turn colder and blocky in March but didn't do our area that much good...we did get a couple moderate snowfalls late.  2012...ya no.  2017 we got that ice storm in March but that was about all we got from the late season.  Furthermore, several Nina's that didn't fade also had a period of blocking and or cold/snow in March.  1999 and 2018 notably.  Statistically there just isnt any proof that a nina fading during winter helps our snow chances at all.  I think due to the lag affect its just not a factor...unless the nina fades by the start of winter...its too late to help us much in establishing a new winter pacific base state.  

[Maestrobjwa]

28 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I don't know if saying the can is being kicked or things are "delayed" is correct?  I mean, losing the TPV rolling under the block to SE Can and becoming a stable 50/50 feature forced the whole pattern to take on a different look.  That TPV was the original catalyst for cold mid and low level flow and would be in place right now.  We are now required to manufacture our own beast of a 50/50 or wait for the PAC to cooperate.  This is different from modeling being slow on the cold press and things are just taking their time evolving.  

 

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Bingo

What I gather from this (and what I've seen the last few years) is...that the TPV does is difficult to predict in general, isn't it?

[Kleimax]

1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

The winter of ever delays! It feels like this may the case.

How about the 45 day Snow outlook.. I think maybe something is showing up on this in the southeast! We get that Nina split too! Painful. Reminds me or 2010 - 2011 season

Even Mexico gets more snow than we do 

[poolz1]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

What I gather from this (and what I've seen the last few years) is...that the TPV does is difficult to predict in general, isn't it?

I really don't know to be honest.  I would have thought that modeling would have at least been in the ballpark with this particular TPV.  It was certainly a large feature in the NH and usually those are handle fairly well in the LR.  But, maybe someone can correct me.  To see that thing bounce like a rubber ball back to the west was a true Lucy yanking the football situation!

[CAPE]

37 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I don't know if saying the can is being kicked or things are "delayed" is correct?  I mean, losing the TPV rolling under the block to SE Can and becoming a stable 50/50 feature forced the whole pattern to take on a different look.  That TPV was the original catalyst for cold mid and low level flow and would be in place right now.  We are now required to manufacture our own beast of a 50/50 or wait for the PAC to cooperate.  This is different from modeling being slow on the cold press and things are just taking their time evolving.  

I suppose "delayed" in the sense that we won't have a more favorable pattern in place until later than guidance was previously suggesting. But you are right, we won't be getting that same pattern, because there was significant model simulation error in the interaction between important features that resulted in that outcome. That happens a lot in the LR, as we all know. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I few years ago I hypothesized based on observation that the MJO impact is most significant when it is in phase and conjunction with the base state and often has little impact when its weak and out of phase with the base state.  For example...a strong phase 8-1 during el nino will initiate a great pattern.  But when we were waiting all winter for the MJO to weakly meander into phase 8 during a Nina...when it did finally do so it had no real impact other then to make the pattern perhaps a little less awful for a week.  

Interesting take. I have always thought that the Phase of the MJO 8-1 aligns with a cold pattern in the east during our prime climo. But the amplitude effects how active the pattern is? I may be wrong on this though. 

[NorthArlington101]

Super quick Fri/Sat check-in… the GFS and it’s ensembles are getting colder, but at the moment the GFS/EURO are looking they meet in the middle to make a chillier rain. Lame.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Interesting take. I have always thought that the Phase of the MJO 8-1 aligns with a cold pattern in the east during our prime climo. But the amplitude effects how active the pattern is? I may be wrong on this though. 

It does...but I have a theory that the MJO has a more symbiotic relationship rather than a pure cause/effect one with the pattern.  Convection in regions 8/1 is preferable yes.  But convection there is also an effect of a nino pattern.  So in a favorable pacific pattern we tend to get the MJO cycling through phases 8/1 strongly...and we get a great pattern...creating the "correlation".  Phase 8/1=cold/snow.  But I've also noticed that often when the pacific base state is in a bad phase...and the usual suspects are relying on the MJO to get into cold phases to "save us".... what happens is even if the MJO does eventually make it weakly into phases 8/1 it doesn't do us any good.  The impact on the pattern isn't as extreme, and often by the time the pattern even starts to evolve from the awful one we are in...the effect wanes and the base state re-establishes.  

 

To simplify...waiting on the MJO to save us when we're in a bad pacific base state has mostly been futile over the years.  

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Super quick Fri/Sat check-in… the GFS and it’s ensembles are getting colder, but at the moment the GFS/EURO are looking they meet in the middle to make a chillier rain. Lame.

That’s great.  Gets us in the board.  Snow is snow even a car topper.  Good stuff!

[WxUSAF]

These op GFS runs are just allergic to generating any legit cold air in North America and especially bringing any east of the Rockies. I miss the days of the always reliable D10+ blizzards.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

These op GFS runs are just allergic to generating any legit cold air in North America and especially bringing any east of the Rockies. I miss the days of the always reliable D10+ blizzards.

Imagine what Ji is going through.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

These op GFS runs are just allergic to generating any legit cold air in North America and especially bringing any east of the Rockies. I miss the days of the always reliable D10+ blizzards.

If we are picking useless long range OP runs I nominate the CMC

[WxUSAF]

^extrapolating a D13 KU there 

[nj2va]

I'd like to see CNE/SNE cash in on a snowstorm since it seems like in years past, especially in the midst of pattern changes (or RELOADED pattern changes), mid ATL scores after we miss a few chances that hit New England.  Probably unpopular opinion here but seems like general evolution in storm chances here in prior years.

[Scraff]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^extrapolating a D13 KU there 

Triple Phaser. LFG! 

[WxUSAF]

Lol just a few changes on the GEFS 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Lol just a few changes on the GEFS 

D10 +PNA!  

[aldie 22]

37 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Imagine what Ji is going through.

Pretty sure we won't have to imagine at some point today

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Lol just a few changes on the GEFS 

Looking more EPS like. 

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Lol just a few changes on the GEFS 

 

20 minutes ago, nj2va said:

D10 +PNA!  

 

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looking more EPS like. 

I’m on my phone so hard to post too many graphics but that forecast trend out west has totally flipped.

It’s handling the Siberian PV a lot more like the eps. Seems to be all somewhat due to a much more extended Pac jet. Maybe due to an East Asian mountain torque event?

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE we agree 100% on the less ideal NAO look up top...but the reason I said its not hopeless is that while the latest depictions of the high latitudes are not a true block and really just higher heights from the extension of a full latitude ridge... that look can quickly/easily become good.  For example...if a system were to amplify into the lakes/northeast...the heat transfer from that into the high latitudes could pump the ridge...and eventually cut it off into a true block.  It wouldn't take much.  Then we still have to deal with the whole no cold air anywhere problem...but one thing at a time.  Just saying...while its disapointing, even if expected, that things aren't perfect...I would much prefer where we are now over seeing some consolidated blue ball of death up top.   That would be game over...a central pac ridge with +++AO/NOA is the stuff our total shutout winters like 2020 are made out of.  This currently blah pattern at least leaves the door open we could head in a better direction.  I have a low bar.  

[psuhoffman]

@WxUSAF watch the EPS go the other way now 

[CAPE]

Go Canada!

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF watch the EPS go the other way now 

We're watching PSU get more cynical by the year  But seriously I get ya...the way we've been goin' the last 6-7 years you almost look for it

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE we agree 100% on the less ideal NAO look up top...but the reason I said its not hopeless is that while the latest depictions of the high latitudes are not a true block and really just higher heights from the extension of a full latitude ridge... that look can quickly/easily become good.  For example...if a system were to amplify into the lakes/northeast...the heat transfer from that into the high latitudes could pump the ridge...and eventually cut it off into a true block.  It wouldn't take much.  Then we still have to deal with the whole no cold air anywhere problem...but one thing at a time.  Just saying...while its disapointing, even if expected, that things aren't perfect...I would much prefer where we are now over seeing some consolidated blue ball of death up top.   That would be game over...a central pac ridge with +++AO/NOA is the stuff our total shutout winters like 2020 are made out of.  This currently blah pattern at least leaves the door open we could head in a better direction.  I have a low bar.  

Seeing +Height anomalies in the HL regions(not the norm) is always better than the inverse. We have something to work with.