jm1220 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said: does GFS and CMC actually show some snow at the tail end of the storm on Friday evening or that's not going to work out? . Highly doubtful. Anything behind the cold front would get downsloped to death reaching us on the westerly winds. Wouldn't trust the clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said: does GFS and CMC actually show some snow at the tail end of the storm on Friday evening or that's not going to work out? . No it's just Tropical Tidbits being weird. If you look at the same map on Pivotal Weather none of that is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 57 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said: does GFS and CMC actually show some snow at the tail end of the storm on Friday evening or that's not going to work out? . I think we all have a chance but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 7 hours ago, bluewave said: The December blocking episodes have become more south based since the 1970s. So this allows the block to link up with the Southeast Ridge at times. This will be the case again for the storm on Friday. The one common denominator is the increasing record warm pool to our east. This allows the blocks to extend further south than during eras when the SSTs were much colder. Great post (as usual), Chris. Might be a silly question, but how far south do these have to extend before they’re not even classified as “blocking” anymore? (For example, a robust SE ridge isn’t considered “low-latitude blocking, right?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Despite the very cold anomalies coming, I actually think the warm anomalies for Dec 30 - Jan 10 will be even greater. I think one or two days could even make a run at 70+ 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Despite the very cold anomalies coming, I actually think the warm anomalies for Dec 30 - Jan 10 will be even greater. I think one or two days could even make a run at 70+ I think so, widespread low 60s at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 the meso models show a line of convection with heavy rain along the front. that is the worst possible scenario for flash freezing 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 32 minutes ago, forkyfork said: It will be what it is …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 4 hours ago, USCG RS said: That's funny. Wife and I are literally considering buffalo rn. I'd look at the towns south and east rather than the city proper because it's closer to the outdoorsy stuff but I don't really know enough to provide guidance other than through observations. There are a few places south of Rochester that also look good. @forkyfork nice maps. I hope they're wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Morning thoughts… A soaking rain will arrive during the late morning or early afternoon hours. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 54° It will be rainy and windy tomorrow. Afterward, it will turn sharply colder. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.5°; 15-Year: 43.4° Newark: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 44.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.3°; 15-Year: 45.3° The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose to +55.74 today. That is the highest figure since April 2, 2011 when the SOI stood at +62.15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 New all-time low temperature record: This morning, the temperature fell to -42° at Casper, WY. That smashed the daily record of -33°, which was set in 1983. It also surpassed the December and all-time record of -41° from December 21, 1990. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 West Yellowstone Montana currently -40 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 6 hours ago, forkyfork said: the meso models show a line of convection with heavy rain along the front. that is the worst possible scenario for flash freezing The wind that will come with front will help limit any potential flash freeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The temperature in Chicago will drop to below zero this evening and is not expected to go above zero until some time on Saturday when it will get to the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Ive seen one flash freeze in my life despite the many calls for one. Im banking on the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 7 hours ago, Eduardo said: Great post (as usual), Chris. Might be a silly question, but how far south do these have to extend before they’re not even classified as “blocking” anymore? (For example, a robust SE ridge isn’t considered “low-latitude blocking, right?) The block extending so far south has resulted in the forecast for record December low pressures north of the Lakes. Pressures around 970mb or lower have usually been associated with storm tracks very close to the coast. So it’s an impressive merger of a -3 to -4 -AO block and the SE Ridge. The colder storm track the Euro was showing last Thursday would have been closer to our old climo for +PNA -AO storm tracks. New December record low pressures possible Old forecast from last Thursday more traditional track New run much stronger SE Ridge over the record warm Gulf Stream 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Its as cold or even colder in parts of the U.S than it is in Antarctica right now. That's crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: New all-time low temperature record: This morning, the temperature fell to -42° at Casper, WY. That smashed the daily record of -33°, which was set in 1983. It also surpassed the December and all-time record of -41° from December 21, 1990. With a wind chill of -57 too, crazy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: Its as cold or even colder in parts of the U.S than it is in Antarctica right now. That's crazy Yes quite a bit colder in some locations. Currently -18 at the south pole. Of course it is almost summer down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: New all-time low temperature record: This morning, the temperature fell to -42° at Casper, WY. That smashed the daily record of -33°, which was set in 1983. It also surpassed the December and all-time record of -41° from December 21, 1990. Continuation of the coldest temperatures staying to our west in recent years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(23/35) or -5. Month to date is 40.0[-0.3]. Should be 36.9[-1.6] by the 30th. Reached 42degs. here yesterday. Today: Rising T's(48 by midnight), wind e. to s.-gusty starting in PM, Rain{up to 2"-end as snow?} from Noon on., 48 tomorrow AM. Temperature should drop by 42 degrees in 24 hours---from Friday AM-Saturday AM. Gusts of 30+ from e. to s. to w. will be possible from this evening to Saturday 11am. Peaks early Friday: Pressure headed for 29.17"? 39*(66%RH) here at 6am. 40* at 7:30am(P=30.41"). 41* at 8am(P=30.38") 45* at 10am(P=30.35"). 47* at Noon(P=30.28"). 48* a 3pm(P=30.18") 49* at 5pm(P=30.10"). 50* at 7pm(P=30.00) 51* at 10pm(P=29.82"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, floridapirate said: Ive seen one flash freeze in my life despite the many calls for one. Im banking on the latter. The most recent one 2011-15 timeframe if I recall correctly had little or no wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: Continuation of the coldest temperatures staying to our west in recent years. Yup. And a continuation of the cutter/suppression track of the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: Continuation of the coldest temperatures staying to our west in recent years. Yeah we need another atmospheric shakeup like the 15/16 super El Nino to break this up. 3 below average snowfall winters since that year (18/19, 19/20, 21/22 and potentially this year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Yup. And a continuation of the cutter/suppression track of the past few years. Yup only 1 above average snowfall winter starting 18/19. Thank goodness for 20/21 (great season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Outside of 14/15 where central park waited till mid January, does anyone know the last time Central Park didn't have a measurable snowfall till January and still ended up above average snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Outside of 14/15 where central park waited till mid January, does anyone know the last time Central Park didn't have a measurable snowfall till January and still ended up above average snowfall? NYC has finished every La Niña season in last 30 years with under 20” of seasonal snowfall following a December with under 3”. It must be due to the snowy La Niña seasons having a nice early frontloaded snowfall period. December snowfall doesn’t matter as much in El Niño’s like 14-15 or neutral years like 12-13. Those have traditionally had better backloaded periods. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 7 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Given the previous 2 El Ninos sucked donkey balls....I'm not convinced it's the answer. Sometimes you just whiff on a decent pattern. Surprised we only got the minor 12/11 event out of this, but that's the way it goes sometimes. We've gotten blasted on worse looks Another great post by ORH wxman. I feel like we were due to miss on a good pattern. This century until 18/19 we seemed to hit on EVERY pattern. Hell, only 7 below average snowfall seasons in 21 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 55 degrees to 12 degrees, after 1-2 inches of rain. Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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