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December 2022


dmillz25
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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The December blocking episodes have become more south based since the 1970s. So this allows the block to link up with the Southeast Ridge at times. This will be the case again for the storm on Friday. The one common denominator is the increasing record warm pool to our east. This allows the blocks to extend further south than during eras when the SSTs were much colder.

Great post (as usual), Chris.  Might be a silly question, but how far south do these have to extend before they’re not even classified as “blocking” anymore?  (For example, a robust SE ridge isn’t considered “low-latitude blocking, right?)

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4 hours ago, USCG RS said:

That's funny. Wife and I are literally considering buffalo rn. 

I'd look at the towns south and east rather than the city proper because it's closer to the outdoorsy stuff but I don't really know enough to provide guidance other than through observations. There are a few places south of Rochester that also look good. 

@forkyfork nice maps. I hope they're wrong. 

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Morning thoughts…

A soaking rain will arrive during the late morning or early afternoon hours.  High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 54°

It will be rainy and windy tomorrow. Afterward, it will turn sharply colder.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 42.5°; 15-Year: 43.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 44.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.3°; 15-Year: 45.3°

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose to +55.74 today. That is the highest figure since April 2, 2011 when the SOI stood at +62.15.

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7 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Great post (as usual), Chris.  Might be a silly question, but how far south do these have to extend before they’re not even classified as “blocking” anymore?  (For example, a robust SE ridge isn’t considered “low-latitude blocking, right?)

The block extending so far south has resulted in the forecast for record December low pressures north of the Lakes. Pressures around 970mb or lower have usually been associated with storm tracks very close to the coast. So it’s an impressive merger of a -3 to -4 -AO block and the SE Ridge. The colder storm track the Euro was showing last Thursday would have been closer to our old climo  for +PNA -AO storm tracks.

New December record low pressures possible 

82C25B76-22F8-48C3-9C08-B4F015F6F0C0.thumb.png.c2b8d92f69dac0f7154a6c8b521990dc.png

 

Old forecast from last Thursday more traditional track


70BBD8E9-F6BD-4D55-BAEC-A53D68556534.thumb.png.4532cbc63498f2e846d41a3c9411395e.png

 

New run much stronger SE Ridge over the record warm Gulf Stream

 

41E705EA-20C0-41E3-9870-98C83176953F.thumb.png.13e6bb8f4b21b5424442bb91432a6f00.png

 


05D61383-C903-4469-8DAF-47FEEDBD9B4E.thumb.png.022c6b2586e12deca9890352a0c45f35.png

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47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New all-time low temperature record: This morning, the temperature fell to -42° at Casper, WY. That smashed the daily record of -33°, which was set in 1983. It also surpassed the December and all-time record of -41° from December 21, 1990. 

With a wind chill of -57 too, crazy

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54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New all-time low temperature record: This morning, the temperature fell to -42° at Casper, WY. That smashed the daily record of -33°, which was set in 1983. It also surpassed the December and all-time record of -41° from December 21, 1990. 

Continuation of the coldest temperatures staying to our west in recent years.

 

 

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The next 8 days are averaging   29degs.(23/35) or -5.

Month to date is    40.0[-0.3].         Should be   36.9[-1.6] by the 30th.

Reached 42degs. here yesterday.

Today:    Rising T's(48 by midnight), wind e. to s.-gusty starting in PM, Rain{up to 2"-end as snow?} from Noon on., 48 tomorrow AM.       Temperature should drop by 42 degrees in 24 hours---from Friday AM-Saturday AM.  

Gusts of 30+ from e. to s. to w. will be possible from this evening to Saturday 11am.    Peaks early Friday:

1671786000-RMbuDOnwMvM.png

Pressure headed for   29.17"?

39*(66%RH) here at 6am.       40* at 7:30am(P=30.41").    41* at 8am(P=30.38")     45* at 10am(P=30.35").      47* at Noon(P=30.28").       48* a 3pm(P=30.18")         49* at 5pm(P=30.10").       50* at 7pm(P=30.00)       51* at 10pm(P=29.82").

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Continuation of the coldest temperatures staying to our west in recent years.

 

 

Yeah we need another atmospheric shakeup like the 15/16 super El Nino to break this up. 3 below average snowfall winters since that year (18/19, 19/20, 21/22 and potentially this year).

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Outside of 14/15 where central park waited till mid January, does anyone know the last time Central Park didn't have a measurable snowfall till January and still ended up above average snowfall?

NYC has finished every La Niña season in last 30 years with under 20” of seasonal snowfall following a December with under 3”. It must be due to the snowy La Niña seasons having a nice early frontloaded snowfall period. December snowfall doesn’t matter as much in El Niño’s like 14-15 or neutral years like 12-13. Those have traditionally had better backloaded periods.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0

 


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0

 


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 7
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Given the previous 2 El Ninos sucked donkey balls....I'm not convinced it's the answer. Sometimes you just whiff on a decent pattern.

Surprised we only got the minor 12/11 event out of this, but that's the way it goes sometimes. We've gotten blasted on worse looks

 

 

 

Dec9-19_2022.gif

Another great post by ORH wxman. 

I feel like we were due to miss on a good pattern. This century until 18/19 we seemed to hit on EVERY pattern.

Hell, only 7 below average snowfall seasons in 21 years.

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