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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Yes, very minimal SO2 release, but directly injected a massive amount of H2O to the strat and mesosphere. My colleagues have estimated a couple tenths of a degree warming over next couple years from this. Nature paper from Nov 19 finds a net climate warming signal already. 

Basically the article indicated if that was above sea level we would be in near Nuclear Winter already

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43 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Carbon copy fella

image.thumb.png.16688cc07030410e4813bd617575ede7.png

image.png.5c16977717042e7c8892b1827e3ca512.png

The blocking needs more time to establish itself. December 6th is TOO EARLY! It might even *gasp* RAIN! Does that mean it’s time to call off the epic pattern and 20+ inch December for all of SNE? HELL NO! Look at what happened in the analogs for this coming pattern that people talked about (Dec 2010, Jan 2011, Mar 2018, Feb 2013, Mar 2013, ect). The snow blitz didn’t start as soon as the blocking set up, it took some time for the pattern to develop. We’re gonna have to wait most likely. Anyone who’s panicking because the OP runs aren’t showing multiple blizzards should keep in mind, that’s because well, they aren’t supposed to start coming until later in December. That’s 3 weeks from now minimum, if we make it to January without anything then it’s time to panic.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is extreme high stakes. Mets expectations as a rule here are thru the roof. Some weenies with them.. some are worried that high stakes may turn into age 75 and over strip Bingo that ends badly. Lines drawn in sand . One group will end up happy .. other will be like an obese nude beach . 

There’s nothing wrong with age 75....

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18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Let’s snapshot to d10 o ensembles.

 

 

6EEC02AD-FBFB-4363-9D66-D063F77F82D1.png

Nice, but Don’t waste your time Jerry.  He is hell bent on showing us that this isn’t going to happen.  Nothing wrong with dissenting opinions when it can be backed up with facts. He posts a snapshot of the pattern just as it is getting established, and tries to pass it off as a fail…so disingenuous. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is extreme high stakes. Mets expectations as a rule here are thru the roof. Some weenies with them.. some are worried that high stakes may turn into age 75 and over strip Bingo that ends badly. Lines drawn in sand . One group will end up happy .. other will be an obese nude beach . 

What group are you in Kev?  The other day you said you were all in…so I take it you’re in the Mets through the roof group. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What group are you in Kev?  The other day you said you were all in…so I take it you’re in the Mets through the roof group. 

I think winter is coming .. but it’s going to be a long , slow , tedious process that me and most of the Mets and weenies here aren’t prepared to mentally accept 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think winter is coming .. but it’s going to be a long , slow , tedious process that me and most of the Mets and weenies here aren’t prepared to mentally accept 

Nah…we all gonna be fine. Good things come to the patient. It’s gonna mature right at the right time…we want it to kick in about mid December, which it looks like it just may. 

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nah…we all gonna be fine. Good things come to the patient. It’s gonna mature right at the right time…we want it to kick in about mid December, which it looks like it just may. 

I can tell you most of us here .. Mets and weenies do not have that patience . It’s been pushed back a  good week already . Which I expected and posted I thought would happen . If it is pushed back another 7-10 days.. Katy bar the GD door ! Some of these Mets can’t hold off 

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3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

He wasn't the only one. Lots of gnashing of teeth. And then boom!

I was actually just perusing the Jan 2015 discussion thread. There was a more bullish bent to the conversation starting around the 20th with the 1/24 system and the models showing big potential for 1/27. I forgot about the sloppy 1/24 storm, but then that one acted as a dirty transitory block for the big dog. 

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