tunafish Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Cries in AEMATT! you and i (and Ray) are all in the pork zone for the next two systems as it stands right now. climo and blocking FTL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 OT Side note: Newest member to Amwx is FrankieMcDNovaScoti MAJOR WINTER STORM INCOMING. CHARGE YOUR DEVICES, BUY YOUR PEPSI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Euro would prob be an inch or two here Sunday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 12z Euro is a good hit for next weeks system on 12/16 for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 54 minutes ago, weathafella said: Given the rest of the guidance regarding end of next week-GFS appears to be a far outlier. So we know it's a SWFE and the only question is how much cold can hold. I know it's very early but this may be a near replica 15 years later. Dumbfounded... Easily could evolve from SWFE to Nor’easter. looks detached from primary very early for a real SWFE. Redevelopment potential for sure. Lots of qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 EPS also ticked southwest/more hugging with 12/16 track of 50/50 low feature and block still in flux, we could see very different solutions after Sunday's system clears 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 EPS looks pretty sweet. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 The cold air on the backside of next weekends system looks like it could pretty frigid too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Gonna have a very long period of snowpack inland areas of SNE if not right to the ocean in TAN 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, wxsniss said: EPS also ticked southwest/more hugging with 12/16 track of 50/50 low feature and block still in flux, we could see very different solutions after Sunday's system clears We need to get rid of that cluster over NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Lol, just seeing the GFS. Congrats Bermuda. Awesome run to run continuity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Still some tucky tucky members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We need to get rid of that cluster over NYC. That seems to predominate today discarding gfs. Fortunately we’re 7 days out so plenty of time to make this great or terrible…lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Easily could evolve from SWFE to Nor’easter. looks detached from primary very early for a real SWFE. Redevelopment potential for sure. Lots of qpf Start small...There's always room for increases, and damage potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Start small...There's always room for increases, and damage potential. Euro is a beast for a lot of peeps. Congrats Hunchie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Lots of good cold around here for the foreseeable future. Hope one of these systems can hit. Need that blocking to be a little less intense, to ease up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Euro still tucks, GFS shreds so take the middle solution I'm thinking it's gonna be a miller B with secondary off Delmarva. Coastal huggers are very unlikely in a strong blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Greg said: Lots of good cold around here for the foreseeable future. hope one of these systems can hit. Need the blocking to be a little less intense. Less intense blocking would probably run next week’s system up the St Lawrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Kind of interesting toggling the 12z and 00z EPS individual cyclone members. The primary is weaker and further south, the high to the north is stronger, but there are definitely more huggers in the 12z EPS suite despite those two previous variables. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 At least one trustworthy model has to trip dopamine switches… That’s all that matters - This is why NCEP can’t get forecasts better than 50% accurate outside of four days … Their analysis method is way off 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Kind of interesting toggling the 12z and 00z EPS individual cyclone members. The primary is weaker and further south, the high to the north is stronger, but there are definitely more huggers in the 12z EPS suite despite those two previous variables. I think the reason for this is that the ocean storm (50/50 low) from 12/12 is further east on the 12z EPS than 00z, so there is a bit more room for the huggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Destroys N ORH county to Berks and CNE. Kind of like a Dec '92 shifted north a bit.I can’t think of many events that had pac energy close off near the Rockies, stay closed off in the plains, then be forced under a block and redevelop to a coastal. I’m sure they exist just can’t think of one. Most events with closed ULLs dive out of Canada, like Dec 2000.Can you think of any similar setups? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro is a beast for a lot of peeps. Congrats Hunchie Yeah NNE people sitting and smiling…for a few hours anyway… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 … You know that reminds me of 1992 now… I don’t like to compare anything to that one because I hold that one in very high esteem lol. But it does when I’m not at work later I might look that up in the library Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 25 minutes ago, wxsniss said: EPS also ticked southwest/more hugging with 12/16 track of 50/50 low feature and block still in flux, we could see very different solutions after Sunday's system clears Looks like 2 camps one SWFE camp and 1 Miller B camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Lots of those eps members ride right over SNE. Can’t have that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: I can’t think of many events that had pac energy close off near the Rockies, stay closed off in the plains, then be forced under a block and redevelop to a coastal. I’m sure they exist just can’t think of one. Most events with closed ULLs dive out of Canada, like Dec 2000. Can you think of any similar setups? . Pretty sure the 1/12/11 storm was a closed low almost the entire length of the CONUS. It wasn't as deep as the current modeled system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Lots of those eps members ride right over SNE. Can’t have that If it’s over the cape that’s fine but a lot of them go into western mass. Hopefully the offshore and inland runner camps meet in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Lots of those eps members ride right over SNE. Can’t have that GFS is probably way off on the suppression..but I don't think it should be easily discarded like it used to be. Still within the realm of possibilities, as is a NYC hugger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: I can’t think of many events that had pac energy close off near the Rockies, stay closed off in the plains, then be forced under a block and redevelop to a coastal. I’m sure they exist just can’t think of one. Most events with closed ULLs dive out of Canada, like Dec 2000. Can you think of any similar setups? . I’ve seen it before… I’ve been referring to it as a “tumbler” during the day for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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