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Winter 2022/23 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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13 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Near miss on Wed-Thurs system followed by cold push puts us in no mans land. Wonder if this CAD lasts longer than 12 days like December 

new gig has me managing snow removal operations throughout the midwest for a national snow removal firm. Headed to Wisconsin today and if necessary Ohio next week. If the snow won't come to me I'll come to it. I'll provide real pics of what snow on the ground looks like for my friends in Chicago....snow piles,even, maybe

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3-4 wintry shots in the short to medium range, using ensemble guidance (EPS and GEFS). 

1/22-23 looks like a light deal.

1/25-26 moderate event, has potential higher ceiling

Maybe a clipper-ish type system somewhere in-between the above and below

1/30-31 same as 1/25-26, but too far out to have much confidence

I wouldn't get too high or too low with the op runs right now, as they're essentially just another ensemble member in the medium/long range. Just my opinion, but I'd rather be north of the modeled snow swath in the "long" short and medium range at this point, based off pattern on the ensembles. Regardless, best potential for a sustained wintry pattern (longer than 5 days) for a lot of us this winter.  

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Next 10 days look very snowy on the Canadian for just about everyone. Euro and GFS leave north-central Indiana out of most of the action, offering a frustrating solution with heavy snowfall narrowly missing us every time, whether to the north or south. Meanwhile GDPS and GEM place us in a bulls-eye and leave us with 8" or more on the ground when all is said and done. Whatever happens, it looks like a lot of us will see a lot of snow next weeksnod-imp.conus.png

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

there was a time long long ago in a land far,far away where you could get a winter storm to move from New Orleans to Toledo. True story.

Now they track thru chicago/cmi or inland up i95. Stuck in betweenzzzz. I've always said a low has a hard time staying dominant/taking the track you stated as a transfer to a secondary occurs often. Once In awhile you'll get a low to stay dominant and take your stated track but seems like 10+ years since it's happened.

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38 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Now they track thru chicago/cmi or inland up i95. Stuck in betweenzzzz. I've always said a low has a hard time staying dominant/taking the track you stated as a transfer to a secondary occurs often. Once In awhile you'll get a low to stay dominant and take your stated track but seems like 10+ years since it's happened.

2/24/16

 

20160224 19z SPC MCD.gif

(couldn't find my tracks map)

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The weekend deal is a step back from some of the GFS runs that had earlier phasing. That looks unlikely now. The southern wave gets embedded in the northern stream trough but not quite a full phase until later Sunday-Sunday night off to the east. Overall enough large scale ascent at the mid and upper levels plus saturation in the DGZ for light to moderate snow rates and accumulations.

Current global and majority of ensemble guidance evolution would suggest that suppression by the northern stream is less likely but the ceiling for snow amounts is probably up to 3-4" if enhanced banding materializes and a general 1-3" otherwise.

Suppression remains on the table if there's destructive interference between the northern stream and southern stream. Also some of the op models and ensemble members, most notably the GFS, are gapping some areas due to subsidence outside of banding.



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