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Winter 2022/23 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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The GFS has consistently shown an Indiana into Ohio snowstorm for Thursday night and the Euro now agrees. Where is the thread? Where is the discussion at all? GFS drops up to 20" at 10:1. Obviously much less would accumulate with the warm surface, but we are talking about 1-2" per hour for 12 hours; This would be a major storm and the Euro now also shows a deep Low over OH on Friday morningimage.png.b50e8c52c286b00f1766971ab1552206.pngimage.png.156eab81fc1e03bd60a8c4fdd5cb7120.png

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1 hour ago, SnOvechkin said:

The GFS has consistently shown an Indiana into Ohio snowstorm for Thursday night and the Euro now agrees. Where is the thread? Where is the discussion at all? GFS drops up to 20" at 10:1. Obviously much less would accumulate with the warm surface, but we are talking about 1-2" per hour for 12 hours; This would be a major storm and the Euro now also shows a deep Low over OH on Friday morningimage.png.b50e8c52c286b00f1766971ab1552206.pngimage.png.156eab81fc1e03bd60a8c4fdd5cb7120.png

Nowadays it's best to wait until 3 or so days out before starting a storm thread. This is the first run the euro showed anything close for the east part of the forum. 

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18 hours ago, Chinook said:

The GEFS members have temps above freezing for much of this time frame

download (1).png

download.png

 

4 hours ago, mimillman said:

DTW gonna reel in a few inches. 

Detroit proper - not a chance. Points N maybe. If I had to put $$ I'd go with NMI (perhaps CMI) being cold enough. More cold rain in my forecast no doubt. Helps with low hydro so hard to complain too much. 

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While it's a tenuous setup and the antecedent air mass isn't good, it has my attention since there's nothing else to track until possibly reshuffling the pattern later in the month.

Aside from the late season like air mass, the synoptic pieces are good if things work out well: A juiced southern stream wave associated with the latest potent California AR event, deepening surface low tracking near the Ohio Valley into the eastern Lakes, and a 1030-1035 mb high pressure spreading in from the northern Plains.

Not particularly optimistic yet for the Chicago metro since the improved GFS and ECMWF runs (vs 00z last night) still would put us too far northwest. But at least don't have to squint to see what we'd need to get a swath of heavy wet snow farther northwest: early enough negative tilt of the main wave and/or phasing or constructive interaction with an incoming northern stream wave.

Unfortunately it remains a thread the needle type setup due to the air mass and needing things to break right as described above. It does have a more classic synoptic setup than the closed low depiction of GFS runs Saturday and prior that would be heavily reliant on dynamic cooling (while the ECMWF runs had no cold air to speak of), so *maybe* a bit better chance of success.



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25 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Nowadays it's best to wait until 3 or so days out before starting a storm thread. This is the first run the euro showed anything close for the east part of the forum. 

And that's just for disco, lol. Getting anything to break right for this region has been like scoring on 4th and 60.  

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19 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

What a nice little surprise here eh? Verbatim it’s 3-6” for NW Ohio with maybe a little lake enhancement occurring for Ottawa and Erie counties. As others have said though there’s a good bit of warm air to overcome, need the low to trend a little stronger here to wrap more cold air in

None of which has gone our way this winter or last. No matter how rosy model portrayals are, most of my qpf has fallen as liquid. I'm still shaking my head that I had to record a Storm Warning for what ended up being just 2.5" of snow. 

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2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

What a nice little surprise here eh? Verbatim it’s 3-6” for NW Ohio with maybe a little lake enhancement occurring for Ottawa and Erie counties. As others have said though there’s a good bit of warm air to overcome, need the low to trend a little stronger here to wrap more cold air in

It's the catch 22 cross we bare here in NW OH.  Too strong, NW trend and dry slot...Weaker and rides to our south.  That track of the 12Z Euro is almost too perfect for us.  Never seems to work out.  Ya never do know though.  

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58 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

It's the catch 22 cross we bare here in NW OH.  Too strong, NW trend and dry slot...Weaker and rides to our south.  That track of the 12Z Euro is almost too perfect for us.  Never seems to work out.  Ya never do know though.  

Always. I mean our gold has always been the Apps Runner

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18 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Nowadays it's best to wait until 3 or so days out before starting a storm thread. This is the first run the euro showed anything close for the east part of the forum. 

And I argue that waiting for the Euro to show something is foolish. GFS has been the best performer this year medium range AINEC. (In terms of showing a threat... obviously none of them can nail details that far out, with all the cLiMaTe ChAnGe nonsense with which they're programmed)

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25 minutes ago, SnOvechkin said:

And I argue that waiting for the Euro to show something is foolish. GFS has been the best performer this year medium range AINEC. (In terms of showing a threat... obviously none of them can nail details that far out, with all the cLiMaTe ChAnGe nonsense with which they're programmed)

I think there's a correlation between arguing the GFS is the best performer and denying climate change. On a weather forum of all places. Nonce.

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45 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I think there's a correlation between arguing the GFS is the best performer and denying climate change. On a weather forum of all places. Nonce.

Silly me for noticing that the GFS is always ahead of the curve. Now that the EC is showing what the GFS has been printing for, oh, three days we have your attention. Cute. 

Why do they even run the GFS? lol sn10_acc-imp.conus.png

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47 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I think there's a correlation between arguing the GFS is the best performer and denying climate change. On a weather forum of all places. Nonce.

Also you lose an argument when you start name-calling. Which means you lost before it even began. Excuse me while I pick up this W

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4 minutes ago, SnOvechkin said:

Silly me for noticing that the GFS is always ahead of the curve. Now that the EC is showing what the GFS has been printing for, oh, three days we have your attention. Cute. 

Why do they even run the GFS? lol sn10_acc-imp.conus.png

If you were paying attention you'd know that the GFS was lagging a full day behind literally every other model with this storm until about two days ago. No idea where you're getting your info from. 

I also have no intention of arguing with you because people that actually think climate change doesn't exist are beyond reason. There was never a W to pick up in the first place.

Dumbass. 

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14 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

If you were paying attention you'd know that the GFS was lagging a full day behind literally every other model with this storm until about two days ago. No idea where you're getting your info from. 

I also have no intention of arguing with you because people that actually think climate change doesn't exist are beyond reason. There was never a W to pick up in the first place.

Dumbass. 

I don't share his stance on climate change, but let's face it, there really isn't anything that an individual person can do to impact the climate in a meaningful way.  And even if everybody in the United States including all of our politicians believed in climate change... great.  What about the rest of the world?

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't share his stance on climate change, but let's face it, there really isn't anything that an individual person can do to impact the climate in a meaningful way.  And even if everybody in the United States including all of our politicians believed in climate change... great.  What about the rest of the world?

I agree that it's very obnoxious that society seems to try very hard to put the blame on individuals (plastic straws, etc) while we largely ignore the impact of industrial/corporate contributions. And yeah, the rest of the world is also gonna be a bitch. But as far as weather models are concerned?

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Sunspots. That's it. It's a sunspot cycle. And it can be back-tested for thousands of years. You aren't a weather enthusiast. You're a socialist conspiracy theorist. Cope harder. The name-calling surely wins people over to your ridiculous assertion that it is man, and not the sun, which drives changes in climate

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3 minutes ago, SnOvechkin said:

Sunspots. That's it. It's a sunspot cycle. And it can be back-tested for thousands of years. You aren't a weather enthusiast. You're a socialist conspiracy theorist. Cope harder. The name-calling surely wins people over to your ridiculous assertion that it is man, and not the sun, which drives changes in climate

Why can't both be factors?

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9 minutes ago, SnOvechkin said:

Sunspots. That's it. It's a sunspot cycle. And it can be back-tested for thousands of years. You aren't a weather enthusiast. You're a socialist conspiracy theorist. Cope harder. The name-calling surely wins people over to your ridiculous assertion that it is man, and not the sun, which drives changes in climate.

Let's assume that you're right. Shouldn't we still try to stop the affects of whatever bullshit you're talking about? Don't exactly see why we'd be okay with losing land to the ocean. 

And rising temperatures are just one very small part of a much greater issue. You can't blame the sun for driving countless species to extinction or absolutely trashing the developed world.

I don't get how greenhouse gasses are such a mystery to people. How does it not make sense to you that burning a fuck load of fuel and letting all of the products of the reaction sit in the atmosphere might not be a great idea for the future?

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20 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

None of which has gone our way this winter or last. No matter how rosy model portrayals are, most of my qpf has fallen as liquid. I'm still shaking my head that I had to record a Storm Warning for what ended up being just 2.5" of snow. 

I would actually say a warning was warranted for the conditions. I was driving in them and it was quite brutal. Most roads had snow rutted much deeper than that, lots of places were 6 to 8" or more because of blowing from in nearby fields and what not Besides think of all the advisories DTW issues for what should be warnings. At the end of the day it's just the public's warning mechanism and nothing more.  Also we really have not had much Winter rain in recent years so I can't really complain from that aspect, but I never ever want winter rain to begin with lol.

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re: "if you were paying attention two days ago GFS was lagging"

Two days ago EC showed zero snow for any locations in the cont US aside from Washington State or Maine and a very weak (never reaching sub 1000mb) low spreading rain across the country while the GFS was already depicting a deepening low and a rain to moderate snow event for the midwest. 
 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png 

vs.

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png

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17 minutes ago, SnOvechkin said:

re: "if you were paying attention two days ago GFS was lagging"

Two days ago EC showed zero snow for any locations in the cont US aside from Washington State or Maine and a very weak (never reaching sub 1000mb) low spreading rain across the country while the GFS was already depicting a deepening low and a rain to moderate snow event for the midwest. 
 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png 

vs.

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png

I would argue that the Euro's thermal issues are no worse than the GFS being off by a day. Also let's wait till we see what actually happens before playing this game to begin with. Not even arguing that the GFS is that bad compared to the other models I just don't know why you feel the need to fellate it full force

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