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Winter 2022/23 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

I would argue that the Euro's thermal issues are no worse than the GFS being off by a day. Also let's wait till we see what actually happens before playing this game to begin with. Not even arguing that the GFS is that bad compared to the other models I just don't know why you feel the need to fellate it full force

The point is the Euro never showed a snow storm -- for anyone. Never showed a deepening low. Until yesterday morning. The GFS made it clear there was a winter storm brewing. It's generally the first model to show winter storm setups IMO and I find it irresponsible to toss its ideas until the Euro starts to agree.

For example in my area the GFS has been consistently showing snow. GFS was giving us up to 18" in my county on some runs while NWS was "rain likely" for the duration, not even the mention of a 'chance' for snow or rain/snow. Obviously there was a chance. GFS needs to be respected a little more is all I'm saying

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30 minutes ago, SnOvechkin said:

The point is the Euro never showed a snow storm -- for anyone. Never showed a deepening low. Until yesterday morning. The GFS made it clear there was a winter storm brewing. It's generally the first model to show winter storm setups IMO and I find it irresponsible to toss its ideas until the Euro starts to agree.

For example in my area the GFS has been consistently showing snow. GFS was giving us up to 18" in my county on some runs while NWS was "rain likely" for the duration, not even the mention of a 'chance' for snow or rain/snow. Obviously there was a chance. GFS needs to be respected a little more is all I'm saying

The timing of the phasing is key and no model will pin that down until within 24 hrs or less. So who cares what model saw it first. I don't think anyone respects any model nowadays. 

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38 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

The timing of the phasing is key and no model will pin that down until within 24 hrs or less. So who cares what model saw it first. I don't think anyone respects any model nowadays. 

Nobody said anything about pinning down details. I suppose you think they should forego making any forecasts past the 24 hour range :lol:.  A weak rain storm all the way to the Atlantic is not a lake-cutting deep low with a deformation snow band. 

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7 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Two days ago the GFS was also showing a decent ice storm across I-80 in Indiana and Illinois. Good thing mets didn't sound the alarm about that because it's long gone now. They waited to see if there would be model consensus. Shocking concept!

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That was one run and the point is the GFS showed a rain-to-snow winter storm for each and every run. We are likely getting a rain-to-snow winter storm. They didn't mention the chance. Only rain. Don't move goalposts. Nobody said anything about details

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None of the models have done all that great in the mid-range with winter IMO, and the GFS was horrific trash with the strong storm shortly before xmas.  It was showing 2-3ft of snow for much of the western sub for several runs.  Other models were also over-amping too early, but the GFS was lol worthy compared to them.

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1 hour ago, SnOvechkin said:

Nobody said anything about pinning down details. I suppose you think they should forego making any forecasts past the 24 hour range :lol:.  A weak rain storm all the way to the Atlantic is not a lake-cutting deep low with a deformation snow band. 

I dont know what you want? Lol. Mets aren't going to forecast much this far out other than mentioning a possible active  end of the week. And with our luck recently, new threads aren't made until 3-4 days out. Let's be honest, nobody other than us weenies care about/track the weather 3 days away in the middle of the winter.

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12 hours ago, SnOvechkin said:

Sunspots. That's it. It's a sunspot cycle. And it can be back-tested for thousands of years. You aren't a weather enthusiast. You're a socialist conspiracy theorist. Cope harder. The name-calling surely wins people over to your ridiculous assertion that it is man, and not the sun, which drives changes in climate

Yes, adding billions of tons of man-made gasses into the atmosphere per year and gradually changing the composition and viscosity of where our weather forms has no impact. The sun is the only thing that matters! You can safely add a couple teaspoons of bleach to the glass of water you drink and it’ll be fine, because all that water originates from the faucet that you’ve been safely and reliably drinking from for years. 

And thank God we have the plucky band of  oil tycoons funding Fox News hosts to expose the malicious claims made by thousands of worldwide climatologists. I mean, clearly these climatologists got into the field not for their passion, but for the 5-digit incomes that leads them to a life of extravagant middle class luxury. Oil tycoons on the other hand lead a very modest and simple life off of the millions and billions they make, so it’s not like they’ve got a vast amount of wealth to potentially lose. 

And it’s just sheer coincidence that 3 times as many record high temperatures are broken per year than record cold temperatures, or that 10% of all weather stations, the vast majority of which are over 100 years old, in the U.S. had their all-time record temperatures broken in 2021.

Nope. Definitely a socialist conspiracy. 

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2 hours ago, RobertSul said:

Yes, adding billions of tons of man-made gasses into the atmosphere per year and gradually changing the composition and viscosity of where our weather forms has no impact. The sun is the only thing that matters! You can safely add a couple teaspoons of bleach to the glass of water you drink and it’ll be fine, because all that water originates from the faucet that you’ve been safely and reliably drinking from for years. 

And thank God we have the plucky band of  oil tycoons funding Fox News hosts to expose the malicious claims made by thousands of worldwide climatologists. I mean, clearly these climatologists got into the field not for their passion, but for the 5-digit incomes that leads them to a life of extravagant middle class luxury. Oil tycoons on the other hand lead a very modest and simple life off of the millions and billions they make, so it’s not like they’ve got a vast amount of wealth to potentially lose. 

And it’s just sheer coincidence that 3 times as many record high temperatures are broken per year than record cold temperatures, or that 10% of all weather stations, the vast majority of which are over 100 years old, in the U.S. had their all-time record temperatures broken in 2021.

Nope. Definitely a socialist conspiracy. 

cArBoN dIoXiDe iS BlEaCh

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5 hours ago, RobertSul said:

Ah, I see your understanding of how metaphors work is just as comprehensive as your understanding of science. 

Yes I am just lost in the wilderness -- it wasn't a critique of your metaphor. Bleach is a harmful chemical solution that only serves one purpose. Carbon is the basic building block of life. It's defined as: "the life-giving element." 

You're right that one of us is lacking even a basic understanding of this stuff

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15 hours ago, SnOvechkin said:

Yes I am just lost in the wilderness -- it wasn't a critique of your metaphor. Bleach is a harmful chemical solution that only serves one purpose. Carbon is the basic building block of life. It's defined as: "the life-giving element." 

You're right that one of us is lacking even a basic understanding of this stuff

Oceans absorb excess carbon dioxide, which disrupts the chemical equilibrium and leads to acidification. The Permian-Triassic extinction event of 250 million years ago, in which 90% of all life on land and in the sea perished, was a result of ocean acidification. There’s already a higher concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than the Earth has seen in 4 million years, and it’s shot up drastically in the past 50 years and it’s still increasing.
 

Case closed. That’s all I’m going to say on the matter.

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5 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Euro and GFS all have a signal for a potential snowstorm somewhere in the Great Lakes area next Thursday. There's nothing else track-worthy so I'm all in on this one.


You know winter has sucked when your focus has shifted to a potential snowstorm 7+ days out. Even michsnowfreak can’t polish this turd (still love your endless optimism) 

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