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Winter 2022/23 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You are NOTHING like beavis. For one thing you spend winters in Florida   and don't like cold. Cold and snowcover are far more important to him than snowstorms, he is very similar to me.  Oh and by the even tho theres been more than 2" of snow on the ground for 2 weeks, 2"+ depth plus some cold (i forget what) is the threshold for some sort of beavis winter day stat he concocted. So today is definitely a beavis approved day here.

Why do you think I spend my winters in florida? One major reason was I got sick of the lack of big snows lol. Ghd 1 storm played a big part. Plus after multiple surgeries and almost 40 now, my body feels better down here. I don't mind cold just not the shit below 20. I'll def fly back for snow but haven't once in the last 5 winters. That should tell you something.

I seen the cold up there today but kinda weird how short lived it'll be as you'll be right back into almost 40 tomorrow. Usually when it gets cold,  it sticks around for atleast a few days

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9 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Why do you think I spend my winters in florida? One major reason was I got sick of the lack of big snows lol. Ghd 1 storm played a big part. Plus after multiple surgeries and almost 40 now, my body feels better down here. I don't mind cold just not the shit below 20. I'll def fly back for snow but haven't once in the last 5 winters. That should tell you something.

I seen the cold up there today but kinda weird how short lived it'll be as you'll be right back into almost 40 tomorrow. Usually when it gets cold,  it sticks around for atleast a few days

I totally understand as we always say, different strokes were different folks. Not sure if you're counting 2017-18 or not, but that was a good snowy winter. Since then it's been much more "average" overall but February 21 was definitely a good month to see deep snow and we did have an 11" snow storm. But again regarding beavis I would bet my last dollar that if you offered him a Winter with 80" of snow including 2 storms over a foot but constant thaws/torches leaving more bare ground than snow...or a Winter with 35" of snow, constant cold and no bare ground the entire Winter he would take the latter in a heartbeat.

It's been a pretty cold week but we are gonna warm up this week.  I got some tears while walking in the park yesterday due to the cold. But that's after being out for prolonged period. Just stepping in-and-out even the bitterest cold doesn't bother me at all.

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I totally understand as we always say, different strokes were different folks. Not sure if you're counting 2017-18 or not, but that was a good snowy winter. Since then it's been much more "average" overall but February 21 was definitely a good month to see deep snow and we did have an 11" snow storm. But again regarding beavis I would bet my last dollar that if you offered him a Winter with 80" of snow including 2 storms over a foot but constant thaws/torches leaving more bare ground than snow...or a Winter with 35" of snow, constant cold and no bare ground the entire Winter he would take the latter in a heartbeat.

It's been a pretty cold week but we are gonna warm up this week.  I got some tears while walking in the park yesterday due to the cold. But that's after being out for prolonged period. Just stepping in-and-out even the bitterest cold doesn't bother me at all.

Yep, snow cover for me. Thats why Im down to about 4ish weeks left of cheering for winter. After that unless it's an absolute monster 12" storm I want 40s-50s and spring haha. I know climo says enjoy 2-4" of wet snow followed by 38F and cloudy in mid March-early April but those just really annoy me haha. 

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29 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Yep, snow cover for me. Thats why Im down to about 4ish weeks left of cheering for winter. After that unless it's an absolute monster 12" storm I want 40s-50s and spring haha. I know climo says enjoy 2-4" of wet snow followed by 38F and cloudy in mid March-early April but those just really annoy me haha. 

A spring snow can be incredibly scenic while it's going on and shortly thereafter, but you want to forget about snow cover by that point.  We've had a 2-5" type snowfall 3 years running now in late April (Apr 17, 2020, Apr 20, 2021, Apr 18, 2022). Makes for incredible photo ops but is mostly gone in a day or two.  It's been nice the past few weeks to have a solid snowpack but the coming week looks like crap. Quite optimistic for later February into March tho.
 

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9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

But again regarding beavis I would bet my last dollar that if you offered him a Winter with 80" of snow including 2 storms over a foot but constant thaws/torches leaving more bare ground than snow

You just described my winter so far this year and I can say it is nice in short periods and fairly pathetic at how fast it melts.  I'd take your second scenario for sure.

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On 2/3/2023 at 1:25 PM, CheeselandSkies said:

I bet Beavis would have thoroughly loved the Midwest winters of the late '70s. I'm not sure if he's old enough that he remembers them from his childhood or what (I'm about ten years too young for that) but one of my other hobbies is railfanning, and I've often seen photos from that era of train crews battling huge piles of snow. In fact, those winters contributed to crippling the already struggling Milwaukee Road (Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Paul and Pacific Railroad) leading to its demise in the mid-'80s.

I could see how someone who came of age in that era could get the impression that was "normal" climo for a 40-44°N winter.

My main interest in weather is severe local storms (and chasing them) so I'm here to discuss that. Of course that requires warm, humid conditions to thrive, so to me a Wisconsin winter is something to be endured/tolerated only because it leads into spring chase season (which hasn't exactly been blockbuster in most recent years, either). I can appreciate a good photogenic snowfall or ice event, but not if I have to travel in it and I certainly could do without my constantly bleeding/itching knuckles on days like today.

Guilty. 

After the pathetic stretch of 87/88/89 winters in SEMI, I could and DID move to the NWMI snow-belts. Not every winter is great there, but during my 7 years there, I got to experience some of the region's more historic winters. I lived in Beavis' winter paradise. 

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8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

A spring snow can be incredibly scenic while it's going on and shortly thereafter, but you want to forget about snow cover by that point.  We've had a 2-5" type snowfall 3 years running now in late April (Apr 17, 2020, Apr 20, 2021, Apr 18, 2022). Makes for incredible photo ops but is mostly gone in a day or two.  It's been nice the past few weeks to have a solid snowpack but the coming week looks like crap. Quite optimistic for later February into March tho.
 

Caught stretching, lol. DTW had depth of 0" before the morning of the 23rd (you can't count the day of our first snowfall on the 22nd a "pack" since it was new). Therefore to my counting we're at 13 days including today the 4th. I have enjoyed this snow cover and its origin storm much better than either of last winter's systems despite all the warmth during and after the storm itself. The amount of snow on the trees was like nothing I can remember save perhaps for 11/29/11 which was a good wet plastering as well. 

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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Caught stretching, lol. DTW had depth of 0" before the morning of the 23rd (you can't count the day of our first snowfall on the 22nd a "pack" since it was new). Therefore to my counting we're at 13 days including today the 4th. I have enjoyed this snow cover and its origin storm much better than either of last winter's systems despite all the warmth during and after the storm itself. The amount of snow on the trees was like nothing I can remember save perhaps for 11/29/11 which was a good wet plastering as well. 

You are indeed correct. Tomorrow will mark the 14th day in a row with 1"+ on the ground, and it will be the 23rd day this season so far. Been a sucky winter but could be worse.

Snow depth is taken at 7am. On January 22nd, snow started just after that time. By 9am it was 1" So essentially the day was white but it will still go into the books as 0 depth. Having a set observation time for depth is a good thing though because it all averages out in the long run. December 29th, our 7th and final day and the Christmas snow cover stretch had 1" on the ground at 7 AM but it was down to patches by late morning and gone by evening. Pre 1950 the obs depth was 7pm. 

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Not directed at you…but why are people’s expectations so low in our subforum? Even for the locations that got a bit more than 1-3” in the pre-Christmas storm, the snow melted by New Years. So, it was yet another disappointment for all. Yes, we had a little bit of snow and short lived blizzard conditions in some areas…but it’s winter. Yes, it was cold…but it’s winter. Yes, we had a White Christmas. That’s good, but it’s what winter should be - and it’s not like we had an exceptional December before then. So, having a White Christmas unfortunately ended up only being a consolation prize amid a sea of crap.
And, now, even after a week of decent cold which finally froze the lakes and ponds, it will all be undone in 3 days…and you’ll start seeing puddles on the lakes and dirty melting snow…yet again.
Why can’t we just admit this, together? There’s no need to protect and defend our horrible climo.
Many of us are clearly frustrated by yet another horrendous winter - and we have every right to be. Why do so many people keep insisting on polishing turds, and fighting back? Let’s just accept it.
 
We need to stop comparing things to climo - there are certain absolute standards for what winter should be. When Hoosier wakes up every morning over the last 60 days and never sees the grass covered with snow AT ALL, it means our climo is beyond horrible. Of course this extreme form of crap doesn’t happen every year…but the fact that it can even happen at all is horrendous. Even if grass showed on 30 of these 60 days, it would be bad. But zero days - it’s beyond comprehension.
 
We need to let people call things what they are, and stop sugar coating. The same thing is true out East this year - and they have every right to be frustrated like we do. You’d think we could all agree on this and drown our sorrows and commiserate together on this…but yet people keep fighting back and defending. Our bar is so low these days, that it’s underground. We don’t deserve this. 
 
Let’s just be ok with saying that we all love winter in different ways…and it sucks when we don’t get to experience it. The other 9 months can be whatever it wants to be…but DJF should be sacred. There - I said it. 

Time to embrace the change and the warmth.
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February and no snow with this storm there is just no cold air
  prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png
The outcome of that run was actually a pretty sizable shift south in the (more meh) snow swath, though to your point, another example of a system with a decent track and much less cold air to work with for the time of year than there typically would be. It's going to be another thread the needle situation where it can work out in a narrow swath if the system is deep enough.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

GFS keep trying to do a little something with the system right after the cutter.  Doesn't seem to have a ton of support though.

It's weird how it transfers when the secondary is in northern Indiana. It has that look of the nye storm that drilled central michigan.  I always forget what year that was. It was a compact strong low, with impressive deformation snows.

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9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The average Feb snowfall for the last 15 years at Detroit has been 18.2". Literally double the 20th century average. That includes 9 of the 15 years being 20+ and several in the 25-32" range. Looks like this Feb is finally proving things can go wrong. Look out March, the lions will roar.

We're due for a warm end of winter/start of spring, march and April the past few years has been colder, and not much snow has come with it. 

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46 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

We're due for a warm end of winter/start of spring, march and April the past few years has been colder, and not much snow has come with it. 

The last 3 years April has outsnowed March. Let's reverse that trend this year as well.
2020: Mar 1.8", Apr 4.7", May 0.7"
2021: Mar T, Apr 4.5"
2022: Mar 3.7", Apr 4.4"

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5 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

It's weird how it transfers when the secondary is in northern Indiana. It has that look of the nye storm that drilled central michigan.  I always forget what year that was. It was a compact strong low, with impressive deformation snows.

 

2007/2008.

It didn't really drill Central Michigan necessarily, but definitely the far NW suburbs.

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42 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The last 3 years April has outsnowed March. Let's reverse that trend this year as well.
2020: Mar 1.8", Apr 4.7", May 0.7"
2021: Mar T, Apr 4.5"
2022: Mar 3.7", Apr 4.4"

Yeah if we want to go gangbusters 2/15-3/15 and then go above average temps for the month and a half afterwards I won't complain.

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3 hours ago, madwx said:

Yeah if we want to go gangbusters 2/15-3/15 and then go above average temps for the month and a half afterwards I won't complain.

If I'm wrong I'm wrong but honestly I'm really feeling a good March for this region. It's been so long. We have not had what I would consider a real snowy March here since 2008. In the 15 years since we've had multiple snowy months of every other month from November through April. 

This year has definitely bucked certain trends of recent years, so why not go all out. Up to this year, it was getting almost comical that we could predict snow for SE MI...
Nov- 250% of average 
Dec- 20% of average 
Jan- 80% of average 
Feb- 250% of average 
Mar- 20% of average 
Apr- 200% of average 

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On 2/2/2023 at 9:14 AM, SchaumburgStormer said:

Yep, the look of a MSP special. 

 

On 2/2/2023 at 12:29 AM, Hoosier said:

47361982-05028300-d6dc-11e8-8b37-b4321be

 

On 2/2/2023 at 12:43 PM, Chicago Storm said:

don’t waste your time.


.

 

On 2/2/2023 at 8:09 AM, Malacka11 said:

That looks to it that suggests we'll need our sewing kits 

Y'all can suck it!!!

I got something to watch, maybe squeeze out some flakes to boot.

Screenshot_20230207-202236.png

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