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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see the AO/NAO trying to ramp up on the EPS. We lose the PNA ridging out west but at least we still have cross-polar flow via the -WPO. This pattern isn't super cold, but it's not warm either. Prob a lot of chances in that type of pattern if it holds into December.

 

 

Nov14_00zEPS360.png

what low track does this produce?  pacific lows coming  under that west coast trof and then down the clippers?  or storms going under the sw ridge?

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7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see the AO/NAO trying to ramp up on the EPS. We lose the PNA ridging out west but at least we still have cross-polar flow via the -WPO. This pattern isn't super cold, but it's not warm either. Prob a lot of chances in that type of pattern if it holds into December.

 

 

Nov14_00zEPS360.png

That is pretty much what I had for December.

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14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

what low track does this produce?  pacific lows coming  under that west coast trof and then down the clippers?  or storms going under the sw ridge?

Prob a lot of clippers and SWFEs....you typically want a big western ridge for large coastal storms....but that type of pattern can also produce some miller Bs (Jan 12, 2011 was an extreme example of one)

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

WAA snows, SWFE, can even be Miller Bs if the EPO block is strong enough and well positioned 

Lol, ninja'd....your pattern recognition in the last few years has improved exponentially.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob a lot of clippers and SWFEs....you typically want a big western ridge for large coastal storms....but that type of pattern can also produce some miller Bs (Jan 12, 2011 was an extreme example of one)

 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob a lot of clippers and SWFEs....you typically want a big western ridge for large coastal storms....but that type of pattern can also produce some miller Bs (Jan 12, 2011 was an extreme example of one)

I'll take that pattern in December...string of coastals that early brings Cantore to ORH for TSnow orgies.

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Weeklies backed off the furnace December....still show a bit of a relaxation in early December but it flips back to a colder pattern for second half of the month.

But honestly, they haven't been consistent or skillful at all so far this cold season out beyond week 3 so not gonna put much stock into it....even if we like the holiday period pattern it shows.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan’s got a rainer and 50’s for Tgiving. To me that one has a chance to be snow 

More likely to be rain or nothing....but if we're playing devil's advocate, you want that NAO block a bit more stout to push that system underneath us.

 

 

Nov14_12zEuro240.gif

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Hey guys if you need a snow fix Buffalo may have something to hold you over. 2 feet plus possible of fake snow from Thursday to Saturday.  Some model runs have printed a lot more than that.  They've had some November doozies to point where all but the most mental were crying for their mothers.  

8 years ago, to the day: Lake Effect Summary: November 17-19, 2014 (weather.gov)

Can they do it again?  

Here is a rip for the upstate NY thread:

Snow showers likely before 11am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Snow showers. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Friday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Friday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday
A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
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1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

Hey guys if you need a snow fix Buffalo may have something to hold you over. 2 feet plus possible of fake snow from Thursday to Saturday.  Some model runs have printed a lot more than that.  They've had some November doozies to point where all but the most mental were crying for their mothers.  

8 years ago, to the day: Lake Effect Summary: November 17-19, 2014 (weather.gov)

Can they do it again?  

Here is a rip for the upstate NY thread:

Snow showers likely before 11am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Snow showers. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Friday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Friday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday
A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

I may chase that ...hmm 

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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah I think that’s  the lean . Likely not gonna cut into a -AO/ - NAO

It’s not a super strong block on most guidance right now so I’d probably hedge warmer like the euro look. But can’t rule out the colder scenario. A lot will depend on how the EPO block breaks down…on some of the colder CONUS looks, it pinches off and retrogrades up into the AO region and strengthens the block which would produce a colder look Tday week/weekend. 
 

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