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Despite abundant sunshine, the temperature peaked at 58° at New York City and Newark. The thermometer topped out at 62° in Philadelphia.

Parts of the region have concluded their coolest first week of October in at least 6 years. October 1-7 mean temperatures included:

Allentown: 54.6° (coolest since 2011)
Atlantic City: 58.5° (coolest since 2011)
Boston: 58.2° (coolest since 2016)
Bridgeport: 56.9° (coolest since 2008)
Islip: 58.5° (coolest since 2015)
New York City-JFK: 57.3° (coolest since 2003)
New York City-LGA: 58.8° (coolest since 2015)
New York City-NYC: 56.9° (coolest since 2008)
Newark: 55.0° (coolest since 2003)
Philadelphia: 58.1° (coolest since 2011)
Providence: 57.5° (coolest since 2015)
Scranton: 54.6° (coolest since 2011)
White Plains: 53.3° (coolest since 2003)

Both New York City and Philadelphia had a lower mean temperature than Boston. Since 1874, there were only 6 such prior cases: 1920, 1939, 1963, 1977, 1987, and 2011. In 1987, Portland and Seattle had their previous warmest first week on record in October. Those records were surpassed this year. Portland saw the temperature soar to 87° today. That smashed the daily record of 82° from 1971. It is also the latest 87° temperature on record.

All said, the first 10 days of October remain on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period.

Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +18.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.132 today. That broke the daily record high figure of +2.602 from 1988.

On October 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.716 (RMM). The October 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.685 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.0° below normal).

 

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Earliest first 30s of the season at Newark since 2003. 

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 04-01 (2017) 10-03 (2003) 160
Mean 04-21 10-21 182
2022 04-18 (2022) 36 10-09 (2022) - -
2021 04-22 (2021) 37 11-03 (2021) 39 194
2020 05-10 (2020) 35 10-18 (2020) 39 160
2019 04-29 (2019) 37 11-02 (2019) 36 186
2018 04-21 (2018) 37 10-19 (2018) 35 180
2017 04-01 (2017) 36 11-01 (2017) 39 213
2016 04-15 (2016) 39 10-26 (2016) 37 193
2015 04-25 (2015) 36 10-17 (2015) 39 174
2014 04-21 (2014) 37 10-20 (2014) 39 181
2013 04-21 (2013) 37 10-24 (2013) 39 185
2012 04-28 (2012) 38 10-13 (2012) 34 167
2011 04-22 (2011) 37 10-28 (2011) 36 188
2010 04-28 (2010) 38 10-30 (2010) 38 184
2009 04-17 (2009) 37 10-14 (2009) 38 179
2008 05-01 (2008) 37 10-19 (2008) 39 170
2007 04-21 (2007) 39 10-29 (2007) 39 190
2006 04-10 (2006) 39 10-13 (2006) 39 185
2005 05-03 (2005) 39 10-27 (2005) 38 176
2004 04-06 (2004) 31 10-18 (2004) 39 194
2003 04-18 (2003) 36 10-03 (2003) 39 167
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The next 8 days are averaging  62degs.(55/69) or +2.

Reached 62 here yesterday.

Today:  60-64, wind w-breezy, m. sunny.

1"-2" Rain on Thurs/Fri, then BN T's for a week?

GFS Too Warm as usual?     A whole week near 70!    That is a +4

1665295200-UiVBF4fwn5I.png

46*(72%RH) here at 7am.      48* at 8am.      50* at 9am.       55* at Noon.      57* at 2pm.     Reached 65* at 5pm.       59* at 8pm.

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The low of 37° at Newark is just 2° from the record low of 35°. 
 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-08DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record
 

 

10/9 35 in 1988 36 in 2001 37 in 2022
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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The low of 37° at Newark is just 2° from the record low of 35°. 
 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-08DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record
 

 

10/9 35 in 1988 36 in 2001 37 in 2022

Chris, do you have a list for the earliest 30s for the NYC airports and the park itself?  Going back to the 70s and overall site records?  I'm thinking it was back in 1976 and in late September?

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 60°

Newark: 62°

Philadelphia: 63°

Tomorrow will turn milder.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 67.0°; 15-Year: 68.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 68.6°; 15-Year: 70.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 68.6°; 15-Year: 70.9°

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16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, do you have a list for the earliest 30s for the NYC airports and the park itself?  Going back to the 70s and overall site records?  I'm thinking it was back in 1976 and in late September?

Bridgeport: September 21, 1956

Islip: September 10, 1975

New Haven: September 17, 1950

New York City-JFK: October 4, 1996

New York City-LGA: October 1, 1947

New York City-NYC: September 30, 1912

Newark: September 21, 1956

White Plains: September 20, 1979, 1993, and 2004

 

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Worthy of monitoring 10/13-19 for one or two large qpf events (1+). All ensemble systems above normal that time frame. GFS op may be leading the pack on potential for a narrow stripe of excessive (5+) in the northeast USA.  I see this as some (minor) GMEX-Trop contribution for the first event this Thu-Fri. WPC experimental excessive as posted overnight has the excessive north of our area.  I could see this down here in somewhere in our subforum.

Frosty this morning in Wantage. low 31.5 on the 10' mast. (colder near grass level for sure).

Colors out here beautiful reds on the maples...much brighter than recent years. 

 

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17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Bridgeport: September 21, 1956

Islip: September 10, 1975

New Haven: September 17, 1950

New York City-JFK: October 4, 1996

New York City-LGA: October 1, 1947

New York City-NYC: September 30, 1912

Newark: September 21, 1956

White Plains: September 20, 1979, 1993, and 2004

 

Thanks, Don.  So it's really early October for our area....NYC on the last day of September 110 years ago also has to be the monthly low record.

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, do you have a list for the earliest 30s for the NYC airports and the park itself?  Going back to the 70s and overall site records?  I'm thinking it was back in 1976 and in late September?

Our most impressive fall cold temperature records in recent years were the 3rd and 4th earliest 25° readings in 2019 and 2017.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
1879 04-05 (1879) 25 11-04 (1879) 25 212
1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210
2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231
2019 03-08 (2019) 24 11-12 (2019) 25 248
1920 03-15 (1920) 23 11-13 (1920) 25 242
1986 03-22 (1986) 24 11-13 (1986) 24 235
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42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our most impressive fall cold temperature records in recent years were the 3rd and 4th earliest 25° readings in 2019 and 2017.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
1879 04-05 (1879) 25 11-04 (1879) 25 212
1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210
2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231
2019 03-08 (2019) 24 11-12 (2019) 25 248
1920 03-15 (1920) 23 11-13 (1920) 25 242
1986 03-22 (1986) 24 11-13 (1986) 24 235

Wow I think one of those was also accompanied by NYC's earliest 6" snowfall?

 

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44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our most impressive fall cold temperature records in recent years were the 3rd and 4th earliest 25° readings in 2019 and 2017.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
1879 04-05 (1879) 25 11-04 (1879) 25 212
1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210
2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231
2019 03-08 (2019) 24 11-12 (2019) 25 248
1920 03-15 (1920) 23 11-13 (1920) 25 242
1986 03-22 (1986) 24 11-13 (1986) 24 235

Amazing how short the growing season was in 1976 (although we did go from 25 on 4/12 to a 90+ true heatwave a week later lol.

 

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