donsutherland1 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Temperatures reached 70° or above in many parts of the region this afternoon. Tomorrow will be another warm day. The remainder of the week will see milder temperatures. Highs will mainly reach the middle and upper 60s. The temperature could reach or exceed 70° during the peak of the warmth. However, more cold air could arrive during the weekend with the cool weather continuing into next week. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. October 2022 is well on track for a colder than normal outcome. For example, 26/29 (89.7%) cases that saw October 1-10 wind up with a mean temperature of 56.5° or below in New York City, had a monthly mean temperature below the current normal average of 57.9°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +13.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.395 today. That broke the daily record high of +2.508, which was set in 2008. On October 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.141 (RMM). The October 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.944 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.0° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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