ATDoel Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 55 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Sounds like hyperbole, but an apt metaphor is a tsunami. Nature abhors a vacuum. It really is, there's a lot of video footage to be found of storm surge with some of the strong typhoons that comes in exactly like a tsunami. The backside of an eyewall can push a tremendous storm surge on these intense storms. There is no "safe side" in Ian's eyewall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Definitely a bit of east movement now. Cape Coral may not be out of the woods getting into the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eric Webb @webberweather A recent dropsonde into the western semi-circle of Ian’s eyewall has generally confirmed these 166 kt (190 mph) winds measured by the TDR earlier this morning Wow. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The water would only really come back in like a surge if the wind switches direction to piling the water back in. Unfortunately for places like Charlotte Harbor, that’s where that mound of water is going, along with wherever the east eyewall hits. Tampa will still have a lot of problems from the 20” rain that might be falling there. Don’t forget the 150mph winds in Tampa Bay area . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, Hotair said: Eric Webb @webberweather A recent dropsonde into the western semi-circle of Ian’s eyewall has generally confirmed these 166 kt (190 mph) winds measured by the TDR earlier this morning Wow. This is misleading by Webb, doesn't specify that these are above-surface winds 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: This is misleading by Webb, doesn't specify that these are above-surface winds Not really. It’s a quote tweet, the original tweet references it being above surface level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Sarasota ASOS reported a wind gust to 53kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Storm with a wobble to the east. At the point where these minor wobbles are very significant. Captiva and Sanibel getting perilously close to the eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: Don’t forget the 150mph winds in Tampa Bay area . Those winds for the Tampa Bay area have been dialed back in this morning's forecasts I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Storm with a wobble to the east. At the point where these minor wobbles are very significant. Captiva and Sanibel getting perilously close to the eye wall. Yea, you can see that east move here pretty well. Closing in.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eye is really clearing out last few frames on visible... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 That Sanibel camera at Lindgren & East Gulf is horrifying. You could see the road when I started watching 10 minutes ago, now all submerged and rising fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, geddyweather said: That Sanibel camera at Lindgren & East Gulf is horrifying. You could see the road when I started watching 10 minutes ago, now all submerged and rising fast. Link? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, geddyweather said: That Sanibel camera at Lindgren & East Gulf is horrifying. You could see the road when I started watching 10 minutes ago, now all submerged and rising fast. The surge will come in very rapidly with the eyewall coming onshore. The much higher wind will pile in the water. Soon that same surge is probably coming for Cape Coral as their wind increases/changes direction to more onshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Am I reading the NHC recon plan correctly, there's a three hour gap in recon right now? I remember when Michael made landfall, they were buzzing around the entire eyewall for hours, why would they have a big gap in recon for Ian? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Seems to be more or less stair stepping towards the coast. More North the last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, beanskip said: Link? https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 First extreme wind warning just issued: Quote An extreme wind warning is in effect for Cape Coral FL, Bonita Springs FL, Estero FL until 12:45 PM EDT for extremely dangerous hurricane winds. Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado was approaching and move immediately to an interior room or shelter NOW!. https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1575134808707018752?s=20&t=ykf9_kXdUYDtrAeW2TQR1g 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, beanskip said: Link? https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams?utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber Lindgren & East Gulf west is the one I'm watching. White mailbox. Wasn't far up but post move fasts, apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 My eyes may be playing tricks on me….. but if you look close you can see the actual flashes of lightning reflecting off other clouds in the eyewall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, geddyweather said: https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams?utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber Lindgren & East Gulf west is the one I'm watching. White mailbox. Wasn't far up but post move fasts, apologies. Stop sign tells the story 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Water is rising FAST in Sanibel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Sanibel/Captiva look to be in the eyewall now. That same water rise will be in Charlotte Harbor shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The frictional convergence enhancement is definitely in play. I wish there was a plane in there, likely an unquestionable Cat 5 right now, if we had the data. That eastern jog is bringing the inner region of constant spiral bands (and also this region is the extent of the CDO) very close to the SE FL metro areas. Currently these 'inner bands' extend as far as the Everglades in Broward. I think it'll get here. In the meantime, constant 20-40 mph gusts even without any rain. Further, the weather could get quite crazy in SE FL when this hits land and angular momentum spreads out rapidly. Angular momentum spreading out should come in the form of enhanced spiral band activity. Also, it is a clear and hot day in Cuba, and the CAPE from there is being advected right into South Florida. So although things have been quiet for several hours, I don't think it will be quiet for long here, and this has strong potential to be a memorable hurricane event in SE FL. P.S. I am only 130 miles from the eyewall of a cat 5 hurricane. it's crazy to think about. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Looks like another robust uptick in convection too over the past 15-30 minutes on the northern and western eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Coffeepot bayou in St Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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