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So far the 12Z guidance is supporting a nice soaking for majority of this forum.  Only the 12K NAM is displaced to the south over CNJ/SNJ with axis of heaviest totals.  Rest of guidance is north of there over CNJ/NNJ and out over L.I.   Canadian especially shows hefty totals across the forum.  I'd be happy with 2" over a 24 hour period.  Don't need the excessive totals as some of that would likely be wasted on runoff, especially with the rock hard and parched soils.

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For starters: ne PA rolling into Sussex County of nw NJ.  Digital max hourly rainfall of 3/4-1.25" already in several spots. Rolling thunder here in Wantage of nw NJ since 1234P.  

Looks like a nice start... I checked the 12z SPC HREF: looks like minimum 1" through virtually all of our subforum by 12z Tue with more coming thereafter.  Additionally HREF is flagging potential 48 hr max max 7" ne PA... less to the east but I do believe this correct and will be within 1" correct, just don't know where. PW of 1.75" and slow movers... big yield as already ne PA into extreme nw NJ.  Walt 131P/4

 

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After the mid-week rainfall event your region may begin to see some high-level smoke layers from large fires now burning near the BC-Alberta border around 54-56 N. Lesser sources of smoke also exist in the border regions of northern ID and nw MT, se BC. It would probably be six to ten days before this arrives in the northeastern U.S., perhaps not very big concentrations, but should provide some visible upper level smoke layers and colorful sunsets perhaps.

It is hot and dry here and we're expecting a dry cold front to sweep through tonight. We had the smoke from Idaho yesterday but a shift in the winds has cleared us out nicely (near 90 F with a strong westerly breeze, expecting NW 40-50 mph gusts overnight). 

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2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Outflow boundary dropping south as seen on radar across northern NJ between I80 and I 78.  Could help to pop some storms in that area.  18z NAM 3K seems to be buying into this setup.

The outflow boundary from earlier is starting to pop some activity along the I78 area.  There is a cell near Easton, PA and others near Piscataway, NJ.  A sea breeze front is also approaching that area from the SE and could act to invigorate the central NJ cells further.

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No rainfall yet here today.  Was not far away just to my north.  Hoping for at least .25" - .50" overnight to prime the soil so to speak.  New batch of showers blossoming on radar over eastern PA and moving slowly ENE.  Nothing imminent for my area but hopefully something can meander through overnight.

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