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Tomorrow will be fair and unseasonably warm. Clouds will increase on Sunday and temperatures will be several degrees cooler. Afterward, a system could bring an appreciable rainfall to the region early next week. There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning the amount of precipitation.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +18.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.394 today.

On September 7 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.573 (RMM). The September 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.454 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.7° (1.5° above normal).

 

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Pretty good illustration of why the tropics were so quiet this summer. The Hadley cell stretching created more stability than usual in the tropics. This lead to the monsoon circulations from India to North America being wetter with record rainfall amounts and flooding. The wettest area of the tropics was focused over the -IOD region near Australia. Plus it allowed stronger tropical development in the Atlantic to shift further north. So a much drier summer for our area which lost out on all the tropical systems and heavy rains of recent summers.

 

 

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  73degs.(66/81) or +3.

Reached 78 here yesterday.

Today: 80-85, wind nw to w., clouds late, 68 tomorrow AM.

67*(81%RH) here at 7am.      70* at 9am.     72* at 10am.     73* at Noon.      76* at 1pm.      Reached 81* at 5pm.        78* at 6pm.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and warm.  High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 85°

Philadelphia: 84°

Clouds will begin to increase tomorrow. Showers are possible.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 78.4°; 15-Year: 78.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 79.8°; 15-Year: 80.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 81.0°; 15-Year: 81.3°

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It will be interesting to see if we can get our first fall-like cold front of the season later next week. But models have been correcting warmer recently with forecast cool downs. NYC has only dropped dropped to 62° so far which is continuing the later first 50s of fall theme.  White Plains has only fallen to 56° making it one of the later first fall readings under 55°
 

C5B74FEA-7B04-41B6-8BCA-FD74D45D4872.thumb.png.39a3204f0170ca0c068fad34641c3cbe.png
 


 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2016 06-14 (2016) 58 09-17 (2016) 59 94
1947 06-25 (1947) 58 09-17 (1947) 58 83
1966 06-13 (1966) 58 09-15 (1966) 51 93
2020 06-15 (2020) 59 09-14 (2020) 59 90
2015 06-27 (2015) 58 09-14 (2015) 59 78
1996 06-03 (1996) 54 09-14 (1996) 57 102
2014 06-15 (2014) 59 09-13 (2014) 58 89
1905 06-28 (1905) 57 09-13 (1905) 59 76
1959 06-20 (1959) 56 09-12 (1959) 56 83
2010 06-11 (2010) 58 09-11 (2010) 59 91
2005 06-20 (2005) 59 09-11 (2005) 58 82
1993 06-13 (1993) 59 09-11 (1993) 55 89
1980 06-21 (1980) 59 09-11 (1980) 57 81
1933 07-04 (1933) 58 09-11 (1933) 56 68
2012 06-26 (2012) 58 09-10 (2012) 58 75
1995 06-29 (1995) 57 09-10 (1995) 57 72
2018 06-12 (2018) 57 09-09 (2018) 55 88


 

First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2005 06-23 (2005) 53 09-24 (2005) 51 92
2015 06-07 (2015) 51 09-21 (2015) 54 105
2011 06-15 (2011) 54 09-15 (2011) 50 91
2020 06-16 (2020) 53 09-12 (2020) 54 87
1959 06-20 (1959) 50 09-12 (1959) 50 83
2018 07-08 (2018) 53 09-09 (2018) 53 62
1980 07-07 (1980) 54 09-09 (1980) 52 63
2002 07-12 (2002) 54 09-06 (2002) 53 55
1962 06-14 (1962) 52 09-06 (1962) 49 83
1978 07-12 (1978) 52 09-05 (1978) 52 54
1997 07-20 (1997) 54 09-04 (1997) 50 45
1990 06-13 (1990) 48 09-04 (1990) 54 82
2021 07-31 (2021) 53 09-03 (2021) 52 33
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81 / 52 off a low of 52.  Split weekend, dry, mainly sunny and warm today - low/ mid 80s a few isolated upper 80s in the warm spots with a mainly onshore / srly flow.  Ridge tight along the east coast as front crawls later Sun (9/11) - Wed (9/14) with rain chances.  Brunt of the rain north and west as cut off head into the NE.  Front clears through Wed  and Thu (9/15).   

Rockies ridge pushes east and heights rise into the east with a warmer return by next weekend.  Next shot at late season heat, especially for the warmer spots in the 9/17 - 9/21 period.  Oevrall warmer finish to the month.

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1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Nice NJ Summary of August and Summer 2022 for NJ :

 

https://www.njweather.org/

Freehold-Marlboro set a new record for their most 90° days and lead the entire state of New Jersey. So a continuation of the record hot summers theme since 2010. POU had the most 90° days in NY for the season. But if the Central Park site was properly maintained, then they would have had 30+ days also. 
 

Data for January 1, 2022 through September 10, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 53
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 52
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 51
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49
Newark Area ThreadEx 49
SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 46


 

Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2022 53 124
2 2010 52 7
3 2018 48 7
4 2021 43 0
5 2016 42 4
6 2020 40 7
7 2002 38 4
8 1944 37 3
9 1999 35 17
10 2015 34 3
- 1955 34 4


 

Data for January 1, 2022 through September 10, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 34
Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 34
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 30
New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 30
SHRUB OAK COOP 29
SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 27
NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 25
ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 25
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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

81 / 52 off a low of 52.  Split weekend, dry, mainly sunny and warm today - low/ mid 80s a few isolated upper 80s in the warm spots with a mainly onshore / srly flow.  Ridge tight along the east coast as front crawls later Sun (9/11) - Wed (9/14) with rain chances.  Brunt of the rain north and west as cut off head into the NE.  Front clears through Wed  and Thu (9/15).   

Rockies ridge pushes east and heights rise into the east with a warmer return by next weekend.  Next shot at late season heat, especially for the warmer spots in the 9/17 - 9/21 period.  Oevrall warmer finish to the month.

Yes I think there's an outside shot at another 90 degree day sometime in this general time-frame. Of course conditions wind direction etc would have to be almost perfect to get there but there's a chance up to September 27th. I am at the moment focused on Sept 21st and a day 3-5 days later for that 90 degree potential. Only using the word potential here to be perfectly clear that it's not likely but possible.

WX/PT

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Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the lower and middle 80s across much of the region. Highs included:

Allentown: 81°
Bridgeport: 82°
Islip: 85°
New York City: 86°
Newark: 87°
Philadelphia: 83°

Clouds will increase tomorrow and temperatures will be several degrees cooler than they were today. Afterward, a system could bring a light to moderate rainfall to the region early next week. There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning the amount and duration of precipitation.

Out West, Seattle reached 90° for the 13th time this year. That surpassed the record of 12 days, which was set in 2015. All three years with 10 or more such days have occurred since 2015.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +14.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.566 today.

On September 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.718 (RMM). The September 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.578 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.7° (1.5° above normal).

 

 

 

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