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Tracking the Tropics


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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Meanwhile, the 12z Euro is a nuke for FL and has the system intensify again off the east coast.

The GFS is a good example of why the ultimate landfall intensity is a real question.....the fact that it may interact significantly with that mid latitude trough prior to LF gives me pause. Its going to need to veer in fast and south to be intense.

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Good point. Dealing with large-scale features is probably easier to peg down. 

The whole reason why tropical systems are usually a PIA is because the tropics are governed by predominately meager steering influences, and then timing the precise interaction with the westerlies is a whole other headache. Once the westerlies pick them up, its a mail-in forecast.

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2 minutes ago, Hazey said:


I’m wondering if the momentum is going to drag this east a bit.

18z GFS still hooks it west as it transitions tonight and the Euro will probably do the same. It’s just a waiting game to see if it happens. This is always my most nerve wracking time but the waiting is always tough. Tropical definitely ain’t for the faint of heart.

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