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August Discussion/Obs


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NAM is doing the dew on Thursday and as a result is keeping temps relatively down. We saw that happen with the 2018 early July warm plumes come verification time. Something to watch for that could be a fly in the ointment for century mark heat.

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I gave up on 100 three or so days ago in the ongoing speculation disco -

Too many dodging idiosyncrasies starts to give that non-scientific sense that if you want to observe the novelty of ...anything really, be it cold or hot, rain or snow...wind whatever, there is a distinctly undeniable aspect where it deliberately does not happen ... LOL
 

 

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As far as experiencing 100 on the skin - mixed emotions there.  It's like how I want to go to Death Valley just once... Or stand out among the white sands above the Red Sea in a moment when it is 121/88.  Take a few deep breaths. Gaze around at an ozone glazed sky that one's senses impels the imagination, its color hints as magenta.  

But, I would only do either if I had 100% assurance to escape avenues, immediately accessible. 
 

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So it was already a hundred at Logan this summer... It occurred on July 24th ... heh, pretty much smack on the climatological acme.

unless the number was since disqualified... I was around several locations between Clinton and Ayer that day ( Sunday), and the digital display on the dashboard was routinely 101 .. 102.   Probably 96 ... 98 in reality.  It's hard to trust a car's dashboard reading unless you turn off the road and drive across a grassy lea for several miles at a 20 bumpily miles per hour to clear the gauge of asphalt farts. 

or, maybe it was 100 at a few points along the way, just the same - hell, it's within the margin for error.   So not just Boston's west wind anus out where Logan bathes in city wash.  

 

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We could conceivably go some distance to correct seasonal hydro deficits between Friday and Saturday ...if fractals don't intervene negatively... 

Heh.. but that's a nasty look with that Euro's recent several cycles persistently stalling a front/frontalysis between along an ~ DAY-BOS axis.  GFS is 70% or so similar but as usual, it doesn't prefer stalling features and keeps it moving SE into a 594 DM height wall which makes less sense...

Pros are the immense theta-e pooling.  I'm seeing the 00z Euro actually gets Friday back to 90F along the Pike, but DPs are nearing 75 at that time in the 2-m DP product as depicted over at Pivotal.  Forget the HI talk for a moment, that's gotta boil up some big CAPE. If accessible, even an accidental pixel shower out of random CU would water board a down town crossing..  We don't need very obvious triggers in that environment, and the Euro is outright modeling a explosion of slow moving 3"/hr along said/implied convergence - even with the rising heights capping matters. 

 

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Stalled front... slow moving/light steering field aloft ...

These cells are just overcoming the rising heights as the WAR ridge is retrograding W. The sun's zapping all that thete-e. 

Thing is...not sure how the Euro does at 114 hours with the particulars of convection/convective verification, but the orbital synopsis doesn't scream like this can't happen.  That axis of convection would rain with impressive rates..

image.png.37fb299e980de20aacf9355154ea073f.png

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Subtle but important differences in this Euro run signify a hotter look Friday and Saturday and Sunday... 

The front it's been hanging around with is ( awt ) minoring out and leaving the region open to the effects of WAR expansion west, and the ability for greater diurnal heating.   Saturday morning has the frontalysis axis into upstate NY-CNE as a returning diffused warm boundary, and that look would be a miserable day from N NJ to SE NH... Probably heat headlnes in that look -

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