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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


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54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs is bone dry too. It will get worse before it gets better.

It feeds back ... yup.

I mean, that ridge projection would be capable of loading 97/76 ... basically, lower Corn Belt hell anyway, but ... the antecedent summer environment this year has put us in a situation of limited returning soil moisture.  It likely has penetrated deep enough ( check hydrologists ) that flora, floor to canopy species, are all stemming ( no pun intended) the amount of moisture making it to evaporation (evapotran -).    For eastern N/A ..there's two sources for DP: land and it's activity; or curvilinear flow loading off the Gulf and/or adjacent SW Atlantic Basin.  

This type of synopsis out there doesn't have those latter sources.   That leaves the land-air interface which oops.. entering that time frame is as such, challenged. 

So... now we have a ridge that has the scaffolding for some really giant numbers, with low DPs ( relative to climo)...    Bingo, the model has no physical hope but to allow the T side to pretty much rise to the full insolation potential. 

I think a warmer than normal period ( above the CC + climate baseline...) is growing in likelihood.   The CPC NAO and PNA are converging fantastically actually... The signals are less useful, at this time of year, more typically.. But, when they are in constructive interference with other trend and climate modes, and ... mm that changes the map a little.  

I wouldn't suggest 7 days of 100+ temperatures, on  D7-13 chart, has any more merit than a 30" snow storm on a D11 chart would in winter.  But, we do need to keep in mind, there are times when big scenarios start showing up at extended leads, and they do so because the governing dynamics are overwhelming the typical/'noisy' offsetting events out in time.   Sandy did that.  So did the heat wave recently in western Europe.   ...etc..etc..

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

But yeah, the point stands...likely a hot stretch returning.  Even though those maps are way overdone.

Yes the ensembles are pointing in that direction as well.  One thing to consider that the models haven't been picking up in the extended long range are the "breaks" like today with slightly cooler temps and dew points between the HHH's.  Still don't see a "straight through to October" scenario coming as some may have been hoping.  Every time you see that unfold on the models in the long range it disappears into some moderating frontal passages in the medium-short range.

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1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

Yes the ensembles are pointing in that direction as well.  One thing to consider that the models haven't been picking up in the extended long range are the "breaks" like today with slightly cooler temps and dew points between the HHH's.  Still don't see a "straight through to October" scenario coming as some may have been hoping, every time you see that unfold on the models in the long range it disappears into some moderating frontal passages in the medium-short range.

Remember all of those 110s modeled in the Omaha area? They finally hit 100F the other day. +1.1F on the month. The models have been way overdoing the heat in the extended.

                                          STATION:   OMAHA NE
                                          MONTH:     JULY
                                          YEAR:      2022
                                          LATITUDE:   41 17 N      
                                          LONGITUDE:  95 54 W    

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND 
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  80  64  72  -5   0   7 0.29  0.0    0  6.9 21 350   M    M   7 13     26 350
 2  84  59  72  -5   0   7    T  0.0    0  6.9 20 170   M    M   5 1      23 150
 3  89  66  78   1   0  13 0.00  0.0    0 10.7 18 150   M    M   6        24 160
 4  97  72  85   7   0  20 0.91  0.0    0 12.7 25 200   M    M   6 13     33 170
 5  98  71  85   7   0  20 0.59  0.0    0 12.2 37  10   M    M   6 13     51 350
 6  79  71  75  -3   0  10 0.03  0.0    0  5.1 13  10   M    M   9 3      17  40
 7  86  72  79   1   0  14 0.35  0.0    0  7.5 16 160   M    M   9 13     27 180
 8  86  70  78   0   0  13 0.04  0.0    0  9.1 22  40   M    M   7 18     27  40
 9  86  66  76  -2   0  11 0.00  0.0    0  7.0 14 110   M    M   3        19 120
10  92  72  82   4   0  17 0.00  0.0    0 14.7 26 180   M    M   3        35 170
11  86  68  77  -1   0  12    T  0.0    0  8.1 37 310   M    M   5 3      48 300
12  86  62  74  -4   0   9 0.00  0.0    0  5.4 14 320   M    M   1        23 320
13  92  66  79   1   0  14 0.00  0.0    0  8.2 17 170   M    M   2        23 180
14  93  72  83   5   0  18 0.00  0.0    0 14.9 25 180   M    M   4        32 170
15  94  76  85   7   0  20 0.00  0.0    0 12.0 22 180   M    M   5        34 190
16  85  73  79   1   0  14 0.01  0.0    0  6.1 14 100   M    M  10        18 110
17  88  70  79   1   0  14 0.00  0.0    0  4.7 12  30   M    M   6 1      17  30
18  92  69  81   3   0  16 0.00  0.0    0  9.1 17 160   M    M   0        23 160
19  95  72  84   6   0  19 0.00  0.0    0 11.7 23 210   M    M   3        32 200
20  92  67  80   2   0  15 0.00  0.0    0  9.3 21 320   M    M   0        26 330
21  92  65  79   1   0  14 0.38  0.0    0  9.3 28 200   M    M   2 3      42 200
22  98  69  84   6   0  19 0.03  0.0    0 10.7 29 200   M    M   5 3      38 200
23 100  74  87   9   0  22    T  0.0    0 13.5 30 290   M    M   5 3      40 300
24  88  66  77  -1   0  12 0.00  0.0    0  9.6 20 330   M    M   6        26 340
25  77  64  71  -7   0   6    T  0.0    0  7.3 14 150   M    M   9        17 140
================================================================================
SM 2235 1716         0 356  2.63  0.0    232.7          M      124              
================================================================================
AV 89.4 68.6                               9.3 FASTST   M    M   5    MAX(MPH)  
                                 MISC ---->  # 37  10                 51 350   
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES

COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

                                          STATION:   OMAHA NE
                                          MONTH:     JULY
                                          YEAR:      2022
                                          LATITUDE:   41 17 N      
                                          LONGITUDE:  95 54 W                   

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16    

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 79.0   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   2.63    1 = FOG OR MIST              
DPTR FM NORMAL:   1.1   DPTR FM NORMAL:   -0.23    2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY  
HIGHEST:   100 ON 23    GRTST 24HR  0.91 ON  4- 4      TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS      
LOWEST:     59 ON  2                               3 = THUNDER                  
                        SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL    4 = ICE PELLETS              
                        TOTAL MONTH:   0.0 INCH    5 = HAIL                     
                        GRTST 24HR  0.0            6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE 
                        GRTST DEPTH:  0            7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:  
                                                       VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS    
                                                   8 = SMOKE OR HAZE            
[NO. OF DAYS WITH]      [WEATHER - DAYS WITH]      9 = BLOWING SNOW             
                                                   X = TORNADO                  
MAX 32 OR BELOW:   0    0.01 INCH OR MORE:   9                      
MAX 90 OR ABOVE:  12    0.10 INCH OR MORE:   5                      
MIN 32 OR BELOW:   0    0.50 INCH OR MORE:   2                      
MIN  0 OR BELOW:   0    1.00 INCH OR MORE:   0                        

[HDD (BASE 65) ]                                                                
TOTAL THIS MO.     0    CLEAR  (SCALE 0-3)   7                                  
DPTR FM NORMAL     0    PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7)  14                                  
TOTAL FM JUL 1     0    CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10)  4                                  
DPTR FM NORMAL     0                                                            

[CDD (BASE 65) ]                                                                
TOTAL THIS MO.   356                                                            
DPTR FM NORMAL    35    [PRESSURE DATA]                                         
TOTAL FM JAN 1   838    HIGHEST SLP M ON M        
DPTR FM NORMAL   133    LOWEST  SLP 29.67 ON 19        

 

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5 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Yes the ensembles are pointing in that direction as well.  One thing to consider that the models haven't been picking up in the extended long range are the "breaks" like today with slightly cooler temps and dew points between the HHH's.  Still don't see a "straight through to October" scenario coming as some may have been hoping.  Every time you see that unfold on the models in the long range it disappears into some moderating frontal passages in the medium-short range.

haha...  Heat?  In New England, straight through October -

That's never happened because Earth can't do that here.   Maybe in the late Paleocene-Eocene Epoch that happened...but then again, that long ago... this region had yet to come out of Plate Tectonics.

We can have hot summers that go into warm falls ..sure... but there are always breaks.  

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heh..yeah.. no argument for Nebraska.  But, it did get up to 110+ in Oklahoma and N TX during the verification window.

That's not hugely far from Nebraska.   interesting -   ...I don't know what the geographical or spatial actually margin for error should or shouldn't be acceptable at D10  lol. 

I don't know...but I'm inclined to give at least a nod.

Do I think BDL is about to clock 7 straight days of 100 topping at 109? no - I'm equally inclined to at least subtly shake the head on that one.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...  Heat?  In New England, straight through October -

That's never happened because Earth can't do that here.   Maybe in the late Paleocene-Eocene Epoch that happened...but then again, that long ago... this region had yet to come out of Plate Tectonics.

We can have hot summers that go into warm falls ..sure... but there are always breaks.  

I know, I know... I was being sarcastic there... based on some historical posts in this months thread.  That being said, I do remember some one or two week streaks of the HHH's, even if the temps weren't always maxing.  This summer has been providing us with noticeable breaks, which is nice, at least IMO.

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2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I know, I know... I was being sarcastic there... based on some historical posts in this months thread.  That being said, I do remember some one or two week streaks of the HHH's, even if the temps weren't always maxing.  This summer has been providing us with noticeable breaks, which is nice, at least IMO.

Right ... and what interests me ( and partially annoys, too - ) is that whenever I read the weekly MJO publication/PDFs ..free for viewing here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

...they keep adding inferences to the MJO being in constructive or destructive interference with the on-going La Nina.

On going La Nina ?    Yeah, in the water.... I'm not sure the atmosphere is truly coupled to the La Nina "base-state" - in fact, the base state does not appear to be well correlated and hasn't since June 1.  

The flow construct across N/A is supposed to correlated to -PNA.   Yeah, June in England really nailed that, huh -    no. 

CDC also puts out the PNA monitoring and prognostic curves etc... and looking at that, the PNA has dominated the positive mode all summer.  That argues for a non-coupled La Nina atmosphere - i.e., NOT a La Nina atmosphere. 

Sorry...back to here and now:  your post reminds me that we really should not have experienced as much nadir flow from the Lakes to the EC, which is allowed (bold abv) as we have.  

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh..yeah.. no argument for Nebraska.  But, it did get up to 110+ in Oklahoma and N TX during the verification window.

That's not hugely far from Nebraska.   interesting -   ...I don't know what the geographical or spatial actually margin for error should or shouldn't be acceptable at D10  lol. 

I don't know...but I'm inclined to give at least a nod.

Do I think BDL is about to clock 7 straight days of 100 topping at 109? no - I'm equally inclined to at least subtly shake the head on that one.

The distance from central NE to central OK is about the same as from Farmington, Maine to TTN, and extending the western line to DTW gets the eastern one between RIC and Fredericksburg.  And the latitude change is about 40% greater in the west - N-S compared to NE-SW.  That's countered by the greater latitudinal gradient on east coastal regions.

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17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

WTF...there's no thunderstorms going on in the Northeast. 

Unless does this mean that flights destined to these airports are being delayed from airports being impacted by thunderstorms? 

image.thumb.png.f3ed2473e0151a4daf89ba96de8c5346.png

Grounding applies to departures from ZTL ZJX ZMA   - click on "View Details"

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It feeds back ... yup.

I mean, that ridge projection would be capable of loading 97/76 ... basically, lower Corn Belt hell anyway, but ... the antecedent summer environment this year has put us in a situation of limited returning soil moisture.  It likely has penetrated deep enough ( check hydrologists ) that flora, floor to canopy species, are all stemming ( no pun intended) the amount of moisture making it to evaporation (evapotran -).    For eastern N/A ..there's two sources for DP: land and it's activity; or curvilinear flow loading off the Gulf and/or adjacent SW Atlantic Basin.  

This type of synopsis out there doesn't have those latter sources.   That leaves the land-air interface which oops.. entering that time frame is as such, challenged. 

So... now we have a ridge that has the scaffolding for some really giant numbers, with low DPs ( relative to climo)...    Bingo, the model has no physical hope but to allow the T side to pretty much rise to the full insolation potential. 

I think a warmer than normal period ( above the CC + climate baseline...) is growing in likelihood.   The CPC NAO and PNA are converging fantastically actually... The signals are less useful, at this time of year, more typically.. But, when they are in constructive interference with other trend and climate modes, and ... mm that changes the map a little.  

I wouldn't suggest 7 days of 100+ temperatures, on  D7-13 chart, has any more merit than a 30" snow storm on a D11 chart would in winter.  But, we do need to keep in mind, there are times when big scenarios start showing up at extended leads, and they do so because the governing dynamics are overwhelming the typical/'noisy' offsetting events out in time.   Sandy did that.  So did the heat wave recently in western Europe.   ...etc..etc..

I’m a bit surprised the rise in dews has not yielded more precip though. You’d think by shear luck we’d run into more rain drops. Some areas have I suppose but some keep getting the poked with a dry shaft. 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m a bit surprised the rise in dews has not yielded more precip though. You’d think by shear luck we’d run into more rain drops. Some areas have I suppose but some keep getting the poked with a dry shaft. 

While I love the coc....getting poked with the dry shaft is no fun, let me tell ya.

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s bc the next day only gets to 12z so it’s 75 degrees at 8am. 

yeah...2-m that afternoon is a 102 hover over ASH I think I saw...

gfs_T2m_us_62.png BUT, there is a typical extended range GFS bully trough and deep correction soon after that day.   It seems to manifest in that model out of nowhere - but ... meaningless at this range.

The model is likely too dry in the BL ...it's probably why it is so hot like that with all them 104 days, because it's over mixed with DPs probably crashing in a shimmering mirages under buzzing sun ...   Nights are down into the low 70s, so we'd be talking 35 diurnals - this isn't a desert.   

This model has always had a problem with theta-e logistics in the lower troposphere.   It's not terrible in nearer terms though so...can't expect much from it at D12 LOL. 

Anyway, there's likely going to be a non-hydrostatic + anomaly through that period ...sending heat our way. But I'm guessing it's 10% less in magnitude and we're really more like 95/68 climo heat wave.   If we get closer and that ominous look is there well that's a different take then. 

The diving PNA and the +NAO out in the period gives the heat signal more confidence than priors this season when combining a telecon spread that much better fits La Nina summer climo than we've seen. 

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12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m a bit surprised the rise in dews has not yielded more precip though. You’d think by shear luck we’d run into more rain drops. Some areas have I suppose but some keep getting the poked with a dry shaft. 

There’s no soil moisture.  

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Great weather for a ball game.  Wanted to see what a dumpster fire looks like, but it’s Ortiz night after his HOF induction so at least there’s something fun.  Free tickets help too, ha.  Hopefully not the last time I see Bogaerts.

9BB9BDC0-FD3A-4293-ABFF-E9092D7DF03B.thumb.jpeg.a2d321ae2ac4f2652df5d98fbb51798f.jpeg

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23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m a bit surprised the rise in dews has not yielded more precip though. You’d think by shear luck we’d run into more rain drops. Some areas have I suppose but some keep getting the poked with a dry shaft. 

I could not scratch my head any less hard over that... that was a bust on my part.   I'm not sure if that's also a feed-back (negative) from antecedent parched Earth or what, but I distinctly recall posting prior to last week that folks should consider it a 'regime change' - which did okay.. but part of that regime change was honestly an expectation for more convective rains in the area to go along with DPs.   

The DPs just evaporated by day and came back by night. It was routinely 75 here at dawns, and 63 with transparent CU towers in the afternoon.  It's hard to erupt anything when we're ventilating all our moisture out of the column.  I think I know why for that behavior but it's tl;dr who cares long

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Great weather for a ball game.  Wanted to see what a dumpster fire looks like, but it’s Ortiz night after his HOF induction so at least there’s something fun.  Free tickets help too, ha.  Hopefully not the last time I see Bogaerts.

9BB9BDC0-FD3A-4293-ABFF-E9092D7DF03B.thumb.jpeg.a2d321ae2ac4f2652df5d98fbb51798f.jpeg

Good seats.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I could not scratch my head any less hard over that... that was a bust on my part.   I'm not sure if that's also a feed-back (negative) from antecedent parched Earth or what, but I distinctly recall posting prior to last week that folks should consider it a 'regime change' - which did okay.. but part of that regime change was honestly an expectation for more convective rains in the area to go along with DPs.   

The DPs just evaporated by day and came back by night. It was routinely 75 here at dawns, and 63 with transparent CU towers in the afternoon.  It's hard to erupt anything when we're ventilating all our moisture out of the column.  I think I know why for that behavior but it's tl;dr who cares long

I guess with all the yard work I have been lately my lawn is wet from the sweat dripping down my backside…

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