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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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4 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

My daughter has outdoor bball right now at community house, no complaints from them yet....there has been a breeze since the thunder shower that went through here, it was pretty rough out there earlier. Still feels like 90⁰

I played softball right behind the courts at 715 so the sun was behind the trees already. 

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18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You may get your WAR August  ;)

I'm not hugely impressed with heat days 5 through 10 when utilizing the 500 mb non-hydrostatic height cinema.  I see too many opportunities for side swiping shallow house cleaner troughs... It looks like once we get past Sunday it may be a week of 89 --> 86 --> 90 --> 84 over 60 DPs, then we'll see if that complete and almost scary looking HC expanding clear to lower Canada has any legs.  

If it does, that would interesting in that first week of August.  Again...just going by the 500 mb evolution of the heights.   Usually... that metric "winds" over the surface -

That all said, the GFS has a particular gift side swiping troughs no matter what is happening - so

I think the first half of August will average pretty toasty before we step down a bit...

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Check out my P&C for Sunday...lol

 
Sunday A slight chance of showers between 11am and 3pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
 
About as hot as it ever gets around these parts....at least there looks to be a breeze.
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37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Check out my P&C for Sunday...lol

 
Sunday A slight chance of showers between 11am and 3pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
 
About as hot as it ever gets around these parts....at least there looks to be a breeze.

Stand in front of a hair dryer.  Should feel the same.   

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the first half of August will average pretty toasty before we step down a bit...

It's not convincing though...  (for me).

There's a WAR flex going on after a week in the ensemble guidance, but all modeling I've seen whether in singular depiction, or aggregate techniques, express it's expanding heights up the EC via accelerating mid level ambient wind flow.  It makes that era prone to side swiping cool fronts despite the heights

Typically, the WAR node expands and gains height, and then ..retrogrades toward the EC to eclipse and then continue expanding W ...etc. That's the typology.  The models are doing the retrograde climo, but they are pinning the westerlies in position and thus squeezing the retrograde underneath.  This enhances the westerlies wind velocity/ambient summer polar jet from lower  Alberta to New England, instead. 

Thing is,  you wouldn't think we would be looking at 95 on Saturday, and a possible 98 on Sunday, when looking at this circulation mode,

image.png.635c9ce4d95d933016d4a33a16e6caa4.png

So, there's no reason or necessary logic in presuming that this,

image.png.160269c5510cfaa922c92cd955e3fd88.png

won't also host blazing air masses...   In fact, this particular 240 GEF's mean (500 mb anomaly) perfectly illustrates the WAR retrograding under a squeezed flow. 

So there are signs we could roast ..but that flow still could be reserving the right to sore-butt a forecaster's foresight. lol

We seem to be observing some kind of planetary agglomeration of physical processes, the emergence of which creates this unrelenting super synoptic barrier jet ... pinned in place, that is a WNW flow across SE Canada.   The WAR is present in this latter image above...but it's being ablated by that grinder  

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...and, one should expect with higher confidence, that barrier flow will cease to a new paradigm right around the 2nd week of November -

any guesses on what that new paradigm will be/mean ?     mm hm... 

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11 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I played softball right behind the courts at 715 so the sun was behind the trees already. 

83/70 right now...Nice, I miss evening softball games, instead I have one at noon on Sunday, might have some cases of heat stroke for the older folk on my team

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58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not convincing though...  (for me).

There's a WAR flex going on after a week in the ensemble guidance, but all modeling I've seen whether in singular depiction, or aggregate techniques, express it's expanding heights up the EC via accelerating mid level ambient wind flow.  It makes that era prone to side swiping cool fronts despite the heights

Typically, the WAR node expands and gains height, and then ..retrogrades toward the EC to eclipse and then continue expanding W ...etc. That's the typology.  The models are doing the retrograde climo, but they are pinning the westerlies in position and thus squeezing the retrograde underneath.  This enhances the westerlies wind velocity/ambient summer polar jet from lower  Alberta to New England, instead. 

Thing is,  you wouldn't think we would be looking at 95 on Saturday, and a possible 98 on Sunday, when looking at this circulation mode,

image.png.635c9ce4d95d933016d4a33a16e6caa4.png

So, there's no reason or necessary logic in presuming that this,

image.png.160269c5510cfaa922c92cd955e3fd88.png

won't also host blazing air masses...   In fact, this particular 240 GEF's mean (500 mb anomaly) perfectly illustrates the WAR retrograding under a squeezed flow. 

So there are signs we could roast ..but that flow still could be reserving the right to sore-butt a forecaster's foresight. lol

We seem to be observing some kind of planetary agglomeration of physical processes, the emergence of which creates this unrelenting super synoptic barrier jet ... pinned in place, that is a WNW flow across SE Canada.   The WAR is present in this latter image above...but it's being ablated by that grinder  

Yea, it probably won't be as hot at this summer apex flex has been, but above normal, nometheless.

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How many of you have anemometers on the roof? I have a VP2 and I need to properly site at the house. On the deck would be easiest, but I’d almost certainly get a rain shadow and bad wind reading. Out in the backyard could work, but might be unsightly and I’d have to keep the anemometer at 2m.

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13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Went to the top of 3k Mount Kersearge just 60 mins from Nashua . Humidity was low and temp at top was 74 at noon with a steady breeze .

It felt amazing up there .

I've been up there a bunch of times, and it is never not windy. really neat spot

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3 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

I've been up there a bunch of times, and it is never not windy. really neat spot

Ya it was certainly not windy till the top. The parking at 2600’ had a breeze but inconsistent with SW exposure but the short climb to 3k offered a nice reward at the top . Was impressed at the lack of humidity NW of concord ,Nh 
 

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52 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That’s wild.  Wow only 0.11” in July?

Going back to 6/29, here are the closest three stations: MBY is probably closer to the .25 reading - but it's been awful. 

Areas just north and west into Plymouth County have done a bit better. I hear Stowe is stealing my rain this summer, so maybe we can steal some of your snow this winter

image.thumb.png.a1624ef08f549d702a37460cb65abc22.png

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2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Going back to 6/29, here are the closest three stations: MBY is probably closer to the .25 reading - but it's been awful. 

Areas just north and west into Plymouth County have done a bit better. I hear Stowe is stealing my rain this summer, so maybe we can steal some of your snow this winter

image.thumb.png.a1624ef08f549d702a37460cb65abc22.png

Yeah, you've been screwed.  I lucked out with 0.70" on the 14/15th of the month but beyond that one day, I've only had 0.37".  Going back to June 1st I've had less than 5" of precip. 

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