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June 2022

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4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

You are joking right? Yesterday was the longest day length of the year! It won't be truly noticeable until August. July 8th is the first date we start losing more than one minute of daylight a day. Once we get into the second week of August and sunset is before 8 is when people start to truly notice it. 

Yep just like in winter it's about a month or 5 weeks before it becomes truly noticeable.

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep just like in winter it's about a month or 5 weeks before it becomes truly noticeable.

Exactly. Usually that second week in February for me when I start thinking about time running out to get some quality skiing in. Usually that second week in August we can start counting down to the end of swimming season. 

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Toledo ,Ohio had a record high of 100° yesterday. So far Newark only has a June monthly high of 95°. This is the coolest on record for all the 100° June years in Toledo. Most years Newark also made it to 100° in June. So this is an unusually amplified omega blocking pattern for this time of year.

Time Series Summary for Toledo Area, OH (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Highest Max Temperature 
Newark Highest Max  Temperature 
1 1988 104 101
2 2012 103 99
3 1934 101 100
4 2022 100 95
- 1952 100 102


0617 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2022


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2 hours ago, dWave said:

Are we close to any record low high temps today? Last unseasonably cool day we avoided it with midnight high temps, but we don't have that today 

the high so far is 67 in Central Park...the record low max is 62 set in 1952 and an earlier year...four days later in 1952 it hit 100 on 6/26...earliest 100 in NYC...

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

heavy rain backing in from the northeast, you don't see that often

Yeah...we had rain all day out east..now a sharp clearing coming in from the EAST..very unusual..

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Steady drizzle here the last few hours. Doesn't look as if we're going to see much more than drizzle here tonight. I watered the vegetable garden yesterday because it looked as if the heavier rain would stay to the east and west, with very little in the middle of the area. It certainly appears to be playing out that way.

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Under gray skies and occasional light rain and drizzle, the temperature peaked at 67° in New York City. The unseasonably cool weather will continue through tomorrow before warmer air returns.

Down south, blazing heat melted high temperature records. Daily records included:

Atlanta: 98° (tied record set in 1964)
Charlotte: 101° (old record: 100°, 2015)
Columbia, SC: 101° (tied record set in 1939 and tied in 1956 and 1988)
Macon, GA: 105° (old record: 101°, 1925)
Memphis: 102° (old record: 100°, 1988)
Mobile: 101° (old record: 100°, 1881 and 2009)
Nashville: 101° (old record: 1944 and 1988)
New Orleans: 96° (tied record set in 2009)
Raleigh: 100° (tied record set in 1981)

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +13.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.594 today.

On June 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.201 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.714 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.2° (0.8° below normal).


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