May 2022

[Shades]

Since 2014 when the SPC changed classification systems, the general public and in some cases, municipalities and public authorities have failed to understand that enhanced is an extension of "slight risk". 

I still have this conversation with others that interpret "enhanced" as more potent than "moderate".... IJS....

Keep things simple for the simpleton. 

[Stormlover74]

The northern part of the line should make it to at least the new brunswick area and probably clip parts of SI

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Delightful evening out here. 1 min rain shower earlier 

I had two 1 min rain showers. I win.

Our time will come later in the summer after the ocean warms up further. We usually score at least once per summer on the sea breeze front T-storms too. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Can’t buy rain on the uws. Everything is training just to my east and messing up instability for later. 

[psv88]

Heavy sun shower. Pouring rain with bright sunshine 

[hudsonvalley21]

0.55” in the bucket from this afternoons events.

[dmillz25]

More downpours here and this time with thunder and lightning 

[weathermedic]

Storm in northern Queens just got severe warned.

[bkviking]

Nice little hook developing with this tiny cell heading towards Port Jefferson 

[winterwarlock]

Run of mill thundershower just came thru..meh

[bkviking]

Yep. Heavy rain , a little breezy in PJ. Was really trying to have hope. Nope. Cleaned truck or pollen though 

[donsutherland1]

Following today's passage of a cold front, slightly cooler weather will follow for tomorrow through Thursday. Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is possible next weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline may remain much cooler than interior sections.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +20.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.267 today.

On May 14 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.656 (RMM). The May 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.698 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal).

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

If we get .10” on the uws I would be surprised. It takes everything to wrong for that to occur with the kind of dynamics we have today 

[forkyfork]

this anvil precip screwed us. some models had it but others didn't. there's no way to know which camp will be correct ahead of time

00z 3k forecast that had more heating:

 

[bkviking]

This  from Twitter from Dr Alecia Bentley on severe storms in northeast and why certain o patterns over-perform (maybe explaining tonight’s underperformance) 

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/32/5/waf-d-17-0044_1.xml

[Cfa]

Lol @ the intensity just offshore east of LI. I hate it here.

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Lol @ the intensity just offshore east of LI. I hate it here.

If you're a big severe fan this isn't the place for you. And even if so this isn't our time of year. Water is still too cold. Our chance today would've been if a big line developed over PA and plowed through before the maritime influence could kill it off. 

[gravitylover]

Nice enough thunderstorm I guess, it was the heaviest rain I've had yet this year so there's that but it was only .8". I guess that puts me around half of where I should be for the year so far.

[snywx]

0.80 of rain here from todays storms 

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If you're a big severe fan this isn't the place for you. And even if so this isn't our time of year. Water is still too cold. Our chance today would've been if a big line developed over PA and plowed through before the maritime influence could kill it off. 

Somebody might have addressed this in the past, but why do storms often seem to refire once they push offshore?

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Shades said:

Since 2014 when the SPC changed classification systems, the general public and in some cases, municipalities and public authorities have failed to understand that enhanced is an extension of "slight risk". 

I still have this conversation with others that interpret "enhanced" as more potent than "moderate".... IJS....

Keep things simple for the simpleton. 

This whole scale needs to be changed.  Ditch "enhanced"  What are the percentages on this?

Marginal should be 10%, Slight should be 20%, Moderate should be 30% and High should be 50%

If you really want to keep "Enhanced" move it ahead of Moderate and make it 40%, then you have a nice 10% increment scale from 10-50 percent.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If you're a big severe fan this isn't the place for you. And even if so this isn't our time of year. Water is still too cold. Our chance today would've been if a big line developed over PA and plowed through before the maritime influence could kill it off. 

Not a fan of severe weather at all, I'd rather have dry and hot between snow season and tropical season.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Following today's passage of a cold front, slightly cooler weather will follow for tomorrow through Thursday. Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is possible next weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline may remain much cooler than interior sections.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +20.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.267 today.

On May 14 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.656 (RMM). The May 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.698 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal).

 

Looks like cooler and drier weather coming back after the hot weather spike?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, psv88 said:

Heavy sun shower. Pouring rain with bright sunshine 

any rainbows?

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I had two 1 min rain showers. I win.

Our time will come later in the summer after the ocean warms up further. We usually score at least once per summer on the sea breeze front T-storms too. 

Likely August or later.  Peak severe weather here is September thru November.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like cooler and drier weather coming back after the hot weather spike?

 

For a time, it will likely turn cooler. The month could end with above normal temperatures.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 81°

Tomorrow and Thursday will be somewhat cooler. The weekend could see the warmest temperatures so far this season in many parts of the region.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 71.7°; 15-Year: 72.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 72.8°; 15-Year: 73.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 74.6°; 15-Year: 75.3°

[SnoSki14]

Wow forecast has 96 on Saturday

[Shades]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This whole scale needs to be changed.  Ditch "enhanced"  What are the percentages on this?

Marginal should be 10%, Slight should be 20%, Moderate should be 30% and High should be 50%

If you really want to keep "Enhanced" move it ahead of Moderate and make it 40%, then you have a nice 10% increment scale from 10-50 percent.

The percentages are derived from risks involving tornado, wind, hail - a combination thereof or exclusively. It can get even more confusing with outlooks in day 2 and 3 forecasts. The categorical forecasts vary based on timeframe and perceived risk. Below are the charts from SPC.

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 71degs.(60/81) or +6.

Month to date is  60.1[-1.1].       Should be  63.8[+1.3] by the 25th.

Reached 72 here late yesterday, 7pm, when there was finally a little shower.    The flooding threat amounted to 0.12"--- not even the normal for 1 day.

GFS is 98 on the weekend in CPK, but 77 at JFK.     Your pick.

59*(78%RH) here at 7am.         68* at Noon.      71* at 12:30pm, but clouding up.     74* at 2pm, good n. west wind keeping T's uniform---this kind of setup will produce 90+ all around here this weekend, but...........      78*(28%RH) at 4pm.       Reached 79*(26%RH) at 5:30pm.