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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

Where?

western/central MA down into CT stands the best bet...basically right along where the back door sets up. The biggest challenge is breaking the cap which is in place thanks to the elevated mixed-layer overhead. Typically the lift associated with back door cold fronts isn't generally strong enough to produce deep convection, however, there is some pretty impressive shear associated with the front so there stands a chance we can pop a few cells. Any storms which do develop and can become deep will likely become severe. 

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16 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Is the front washing out in Eastern CT?

It does look as though it is running out of momentum, doesn't it. It's still identifiable on hi res vis loop, scouring out the fractal CU.. But it has clearly slowed/begun having trouble getting west of Monadnock-eastern CT elevation axis. 

I'm not sure if that's dependable the rest of the way, today. Maybe, but the models didn't really do too well with that behavior, with a mid day deceleration taking place like that, with the NAM ( for example) on previous runs showing no hesitation careening it right down into NJ, unabated. 

One thing I am noticing ... again ( it showed up yesterday but at the time I thought it was just 'noise' in the models), they've closed off the 1016 pressure contour over SE NH/E MA...with actually d(P)'s nearing -2mb farther up toward PWM later in the afternoon.

That's telling me that that this initial pulse was not as well back-built as these guidance illustrated on prior runs. Without pressure rises contiguous up the way, the source is cut off...

That said, the pressure does begin to rise again near PWM ( up in lower Maine) later this evening. That would likely require a secondary push tonight if that occurs.  But these are only 2 mb variances so...

74 here ... temp actually came back 2 degrees.  Winds lightened off too.  It's actually deliciously pleasant right now. 

 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

66F and feeling cooler.  Front is through up here.

Are there any obs down the Champlain Valley ?

It looks like this BD is unclean and fragmenting, possibly getting an assist/preferentially riding along lower elevations.   You can see it scouring out along the St L. Seaway, moving W over SE Ontario...then there's some resistance over the Tughill... Then it's scoured out down the C -V..., then more resistance over the lower Whites/Greens... Then it's bulged west like a prom night breast over eastern SNE...

image.png.6af5fe73b9c06c4752af7e9e43d6575c.png

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Are there any obs down the Champlain Valley ?

It looks like this BD is unclean and fragmenting, possibly getting an assist/preferentially riding along lower elevations.   You can see it scouring out along the St L. Seaway, moving W over SE Ontario...then there's some resistance over the Tughill... Then it's scoured out down the C -V..., then more resistance over the lower Whites/Greens... Then it's bulged west like a prom night breast over eastern SNE...

image.png.6af5fe73b9c06c4752af7e9e43d6575c.png

This is the 1:15PM Mesoanalysis from BTV's webpage.

T.thumb.jpg.e94c4370d0c5c4d9b6d564fe5a1583fb.jpg

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Just now, rimetree said:

Clouds winning now...down to 58F

Battle royal between June sun and the cold Labrador sludge.  As the sun goes down, ...unless the 'appearance' of momentum slowing really does go calm, the slab gets denser and creeps inland.   By dawn, it's still slate gray.  

But therein is the question...if the boundary does run low on momentum and the feed into the backside also wanes, that may be less ... It actually changes the outlook for tomorrow too. Because the sun would rise over a gossamer veil, and we could brighten -

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