May 2022 Thread

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What a classic door modeled for Tuesday. Morning showers/storms move off the Maine coast and out to sea. Door thrown back west in its wake. Anyone who went to UML spent a whole lecture learning about this scenario.

Wonder if we can get any convection on the door. Lifted indices are -5 or so and a remnant EML going overhead?

I was wondering about maybe a 3 to 6am MCS, runnin' SE down the roller coaster.  showers/storms maybe more organized, just not well handled in the runs - like.  Eastern sections are doomed - maybe we can get some entertainment first. 

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[kdxken]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats Wolfie and Lukas

Where has Wolfie been? And Will?

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

already mid-summer form for Stein

[Typhoon Tip]

That is interesting... 

Like Chris' just said, convection passing SE through Maine and the BD fans back SW as it's leaving.

Looking at the synoptics more discretely my self, it appears the BD's position in time - on this run anyway ... - is very sensitive to those convective responses/forcing actually taking place.  

There's actually two accelerations in the BD from convection.  The first being the one he noted, but between 18 and 21 Z there appears to be another convection burst from mid Whites' to Coastal NH, and the outflow then nudges the boundary even further SW. 

That can all certainly happen in a vacuum of any other considerations, but ... those convective aspects have to verify.  

I was also looking at the LGA and ALB on the grids and those locatons are in the low to perhaps mid 90s while Boston is 54 F by 21z Tuesday on this NAM run.   40 to 45 F spreads is getting excessive even for a BD, this late in the year.  I've seen that extremeness during April... It's almost June though.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

24 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Where has Wolfie been? And Will?

Hope they are ok, Probably with family or work and checked out  . Late Spring weather is fn boring. Ditto summer and half of fall 90% of the time lol. I guess a random strong thunderstorm for E mass can be fun it’s difficult to forecast and isn’t a memorable event .
 

Will likes to talk real weather , there really isn’t any or any on the horizon. That’s my guess , I could be wrong . Does he usually Check in more this time of year ?

[Typhoon Tip]

Man ... on the 1 to 10 UV index that's gotta be about an 11 out there

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Hope they are ok, Probably with family or work and checked out  . Late Spring weather is fn boring. Ditto summer and half of fall 90% of the time lol. I guess a random strong thunderstorm for E mass can be fun it’s difficult to forecast and isn’t a memorable event .
 

Will likes to talk real weather , there really isn’t any or any on the horizon. That’s my guess , I could be wrong . Does he usually Check in more this time of year ?

That’s my guess. It’s nice out, but awfully boring.

[Damage In Tolland]

They disappear every summer until there’s a tor outbreak or cane. They aren’t summer /warm wx fans. So they disappear. You can set your clocks to it. 

[Torch Tiger]

Wednesday looks interesting for far SW areas but especially PA/NJ

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Heard Californication from RHCP and immediately started saying dream of Steinifornication.....we are disturbed.

Have you seen Obi Wan on Disney yet? RHCP represent 

[dendrite]

It's the time, of the season
When your well runs dry
In this Stein, torch me easy
And let me dry with my webbed hands

To bake you in the sun
Scorching lands
To burn down every one
It's the time, of the season for hosing

[weatherwiz]

Cant wait to chase Wednesday!!!!!!!!!!

[WxWatcher007]

41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Cant wait to chase Wednesday!!!!!!!!!!

Will there actually be action on Wednesday? lol 

[dendrite]

Chasing the backdoor?

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Will there actually be action on Wednesday? lol 

Probably NY or PA. 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Chasing the backdoor?

The back door does the chasing 

[Torch Tiger]

[dendrite]

Euro def looks more interesting back toward WNE. 

[powderfreak]

77/45

Puffy Cu.

Top 10.

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Have you seen Obi Wan on Disney yet? RHCP represent 

Haha I have not.

[CoastalWx]

Beautiful day today.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Chasing the backdoor?

 

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The back door does the chasing 

 

[Chrisrotary12]

Today is perfect. Whole summer of thisnplease.

[Saguaro]

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was wondering about maybe a 3 to 6am MCS, runnin' SE down the roller coaster.  showers/storms maybe more organized, just not well handled in the runs - like.  Eastern sections are doomed - maybe we can get some entertainment first. 

From all my years living in ME, we never got any kind of interesting convection from these. It will probably just be a wind shift to low ceiling, clammy miserymist. The NWS forecast in western ME is about as bad as it gets for Tuesday onwards if you're ready for summer. I did notice the 12Z GFS shows an interesting bermuda high pattern for late next week, but obviously that's too far away to be taken seriously right now.

 

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That is interesting... 

Like Chris' just said, convection passing SE through Maine and the BD fans back SW as it's leaving.

Looking at the synoptics more discretely my self, it appears the BD's position in time - on this run anyway ... - is very sensitive to those convective responses/forcing actually taking place.  

There's actually two accelerations in the BD from convection.  The first being the one he noted, but between 18 and 21 Z there appears to be another convection burst from mid Whites' to Coastal NH, and the outflow then nudges the boundary even further SW. 

That can all certainly happen in a vacuum of any other considerations, but ... those convective aspects have to verify.  

I was also looking at the LGA and ALB on the grids and those locatons are in the low to perhaps mid 90s while Boston is 54 F by 21z Tuesday on this NAM run.   40 to 45 F spreads is getting excessive even for a BD, this late in the year.  I've seen that extremeness during April... It's almost June though.

18Z NAM shows it getting all the way to Philly on Wednesday, with the misery epicenter over MWN.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Unstable hemispheric scale -

We see there is a suspect TS astride the SE coast, otherwise, it's a four nodal trough/ridge arena over eastern Canada and the lower Maritime, which looks reasonably balanced... But, this massive L/W trough from the Date Line to California out over the Pacific punching into the Pac NW.  

It's unbalanced.  There's more negative in the integral than positive, just eye-balling that is obvious.  Things will necessarily balance better than that.  Either the trough in the Pac weakens...or the ridging at mid latitudes balloons in the E.  Could be a panel away from moving into that look, too

[Typhoon Tip]

That BD air mass is really shallow, too.   It's looking like some kind of freak set up where even for BD physics, this thing may get all the way down to the Del Marva no more than 2,000 or even 1800' along a floor slab of air.   Look at the pressure contours carefully and it can't even spill over the White Mountain cordillera - it's not even as deep as the mean altitude of the topographic divide. 

That's what the NAM doing anyway.  It's possible this is trying to thin in the guidance... The Euro looks like it waits until 15z or even noon on Tuesday to really momentum the boundary through Worcester, continuing along a trend to slow it.  It matters for convection and of course temperature distribution. 

It's also overrunning strobe lightning over NNE as the flow hooks rich heat over top/overrunning

[Damage In Tolland]

The backdoor is way overrated. No reason  to spend so much time on it

[powderfreak]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The backdoor is way overrated. 

You Puritan.

[WxWatcher007]

For the stargazers among us. There’s a link to the original weenie AMS post.