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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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Groundhog day down here.....temps in the low 50s and winds gusting to near 50 MPH. The only road out of town is still closed until further notice. Thankfully our house has some of the largest dunes here, it is the sound that keeps rising ever high tide. The island's roads are slowly becoming impassable. We need a wind shift, sooner rather than later....Enjoy the nice warm weather up there in SNE

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

CB4ECF72-4B63-4617-A280-5C7764183ECA.png

Thought had to occurred to me yesterday; we're about to click up to the next stage in warm season's approach. 

If perhaps more symbolic, but those bar numerics nicely illustrate.  Starting tomorrow the cool days are like the way the warmest days have been over the last three weeks.  While the warmer days have a legit shot and "hot"

Today's already trying.  The air smells like it's coming. I know that sound weird...but I have a super power - I can smell the next season.  Haha... seriously, most can tell summer air, vs autumn air... winter... etc.  Then sure enough, the DPs are rising with the temp some...  intsead of 22 F they are nearing 40 and that little difference combined with the climbing uber hot May sun has the morning air differently appealed compared to where it has been. 

Tomorrow might come abruptly to some.  Tho not hot per se, bouncing the front yard hover temperatures clear almost 80 for the first time is like the first heroine dose.  I think we're gonna have problem though E of 495 up here and SE of the Pike / 84 CT...  Hard to say, but the gradient is weak and that much burst warmth in the interior is liable to really set off the local breeze circulation machine.  Radar may show the side-winder moving inland. 

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It looks like ( early detection ) the warm up nearing the 20th of the month has legs.  There's an emerging signal in all three, EPS/GEFs/GEPs.. for the -PNAP to reassert after the front/trough dip early next week remains progressive, rather than carving in and establishing as a pattern regression.  After it moves off with an ~ 2 day more seasonal cool back,  ... it remains to be seen how much so the recurrence of ejected ridge will bloom, but longer term -PNA is still in place, so the "correction vector" is more not less with that.    The operational GFS, both 00z and 06z have remarkable consistency, run-to-run-considering a D9-12 range. That's a hot look there ( and yes Kevin, finally) with DPs.  

Considering the range, it still doesn't mean a whole helluva lot saying that but the GGEM is on board too fwiw, and these are reasonably good fits for both their ensemble means and the canvas arguments... 

Blah blah, we end up with a chance for more positive departures - above climatology - coming on toward the end of this next week.

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It looks like ( early detection ) the warm up nearing the 20th of the month has legs.  There's an emerging signal in all three, EPS/GEFs/GEPs.. for the -PNAP to reassert after the front/trough dip early next week remains progressive, rather than carving in and establishing as a pattern regression.  After it moves off with an ~ 2 day more seasonal cool back,  ... it remains to be seen how much so the recurrence of ejected ridge will bloom, but longer term -PNA is still in place, so the "correction vector" is more not less with that.    The operational GFS, both 00z and 06z have remarkable consistency, run-to-run-considering a D9-12 range. That's a hot look there ( and yes Kevin, finally) with DPs.  

Considering the range, it still doesn't mean a whole helluva lot saying that but the GGEM is on board too fwiw, and these are reasonably good fits for both their ensemble means and the canvas arguments... 

Blah blah, we end up with a chance for more positive departures - above climatology - coming on toward the end of this next week.

A lot of the country has experienced some exotic heat during the summer over the last 10-15 years. Last year was the PAC NW. We've missed out on the insane daily anomalies for the most part. We're probably due to pop some 100-105F cherries in this warming climate.

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A lot of the country has experienced some exotic heat during the summer over the last 10-15 years. Last year was the PAC NW. We've missed out on the insane daily anomalies for the most part. We're probably due to pop some 100-105F cherries in this warming climate.

2020 late May/June was a torcher for NNE..

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2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

2020 late May/June was a torcher for NNE..

It was hot with records, but I'm talking all-time record heat. I know BML was pulling 94s and IZG 98s, but IZG can do over 100F with a WNW wind. I'm thinking another 1 SD higher than that.

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It was hot with records, but I'm talking all-time record heat. I know BML was pulling 94s and IZG 98s, but IZG can do over 100F with a WNW wind. I'm thinking another 1 SD higher than that.

Yeah, I had to double check.  Caribou hit 96 tied its all-time but didn't break it.

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55 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A lot of the country has experienced some exotic heat during the summer over the last 10-15 years. Last year was the PAC NW. We've missed out on the insane daily anomalies for the most part. We're probably due to pop some 100-105F cherries in this warming climate.

We've been playing with fire ( all puns deliberate and hopefully as annoying as possible )  I've echoed that sentiment a few times in recent yearly springs. 

I'd go so far as to say it would be a 'wake up call' event?  You know, "sociologically," we need it to hit policy idiots ... usually in the wallet is the most effective way to execute change. However, since heat and climate are (unfortunately) only indirectly related, the best next thing we can do is bake balls and lower sperm potency.. heh. 

Have the fictional, but plausible, nuke heat strike upon the whole lot of it,  ROA to PWM.  106 by day, can't sleep by night diurnals - but so extreme that the grid fails so no one is comfortable, not even the rich.  A true big dawg panter wave ... like, the Pac NW.  Having it last too.  Like it relaxes back to say 90 for a couple days.. only before doing it again a week later. 

Suddenly, green industry surges on Wall Street. No shit!?

Thing is, ... I almost wonder even in the CC footprint, our geologic/geographic circumstance is somehow physically unable to get that done. 

Something I have noticed in recent years... when there is a 'Sonoran heat release'/SW ejection showing up in the models, they'll miss the DPs aspect .. But what occurs appears to trade temperature for more back-o-ball-sack slimy air. Not sure...but I think it's a correction to see the natural circumstance as the days near in the model, that we are the anus of all continental filth ( lol, is this gross enough ?) 

Seriously, if we could swap the DP in one of those, +22C at 800 mb with D-slope trajectory should get it done, temp could nudge 104 at BED, or even go higher by pings. 

The thing is, ... the scale and degree of the Pac NW anomaly, I don't know how/if we can +4 SD the temperature side at HFD-PVD-ORH-BOS-MHT-PWM...etc... because of pollution - just wondering if there's too much bio-miasma and industrial ozone.  interesting.  

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46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A lot of the country has experienced some exotic heat during the summer over the last 10-15 years. Last year was the PAC NW. We've missed out on the insane daily anomalies for the most part. We're probably due to pop some 100-105F cherries in this warming climate.

I'll pass...

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36 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

2020 late May/June was a torcher for NNE..

I think what he and I are describing, though, is the 'synergistic heat' - like rogue waves in the ocean. 

Those events that have occurred globally that have never happened before.  

That heat last year or whenever, was impressive but it's not of that former ilk.

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13 hours ago, mreaves said:

That’s a pretty decent haul up Rt3 for you isn’t it?  As for 45 acres, it’s pretty big in the context of forest fires up here, I think. I can’t remember a lot of bigger ones. 

Yeah it’s about an hour and 15 minutes. The kids “league” covers all of Coos County and a bit of the NEK, so it’s a wide area. A couple of games in Canaan and a couple in Colebrook. But they won 10-0 so it made up for the drive ;)

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As of the beginning of the week, the forecast for my early weekend outdoor work marathon promised sunny with highs in the 80s, and slight chance of showers Saturday with highs in the 80s.

This “promise” seems to have slipped away, becoming highs around 70 with chances of showers.

I guess that would still not be so bad and the chances are less than 50 per cent… but given the pattern we have had all spring, I can see how this may well deteriorate further.

Climate change or not… Southern New England is simply known to get into multi-month funks where it just rains all the damn time. I have no doubt that, in the future, heavy rains will totally be a thing.

I really should consider a job where I’m protected from the elements. 

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17 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

As of the beginning of the week, the forecast for my early weekend outdoor work marathon promised sunny with highs in the 80s, and slight chance of showers Saturday with highs in the 80s.

This “promise” seems to have slipped away, becoming highs around 70 with chances of showers.

I guess that would still not be so bad and the chances are less than 50 per cent… but given the pattern we have had all spring, I can see how this may well deteriorate further.

Climate change or not… Southern New England is simply known to get into multi-month funks where it just rains all the damn time. I have no doubt that, in the future, heavy rains will totally be a thing.

I really should consider a job where I’m protected from the elements. 

Glad we don't live there. Although this post will get someone in Tolland very angry.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

It was hot with records, but I'm talking all-time record heat. I know BML was pulling 94s and IZG 98s, but IZG can do over 100F with a WNW wind. I'm thinking another 1 SD higher than that.

100-105+ with dewpoints in the 70's. What a welcoming that would be. 

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1 hour ago, ma blizzard said:

models for sure were too aggressive with the low clouds / low lvl moisture today, especially NW of BOS - PVD .. NAM was garbage 

495918905_COD-GOES-East-local-Rhode_Island_02.20220511.151117-overmap-bars.thumb.gif.79e6fc43e1eaa0198c32b234ad480ec0.gif

 

Yeh ... we've actually suddenly broke the pattern here.    Rather unexpected, the persistent tree swaying white noise ENE gusting has all but stopped here, and the surrounding region's home site/station obs have all lurched to 70 to 71 ... interesting.   KFIT is 70 with a paltry 8 mph NE drift at this point, too, do NWS. KASH 70/ 6 mph.

This is ahead of the NAMarama ding dong machine numbers - I think... 

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wow...72 now.  It's bursting up ...

I gotta think tho that as soon as the ocean gets the memo over what's happening here in the interior it'll send a debbie downer gift inland...  Boston, and most importantly down there by Scott, are soothing 55's while we're 70+   - awesome

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