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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I guess it’s now not happening 

'Something' is still happening on some of the model simulations, but the probability of anything significant materializing is obviously low, and most people here simply don't care lol.

I would think there is a pretty decent chance the western highlands will see some snow during the last few days of the month.

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21 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

How much would you people pay for p16 to happen? I would pay over a 100 dollars

And to whom would you make the check out to?

If we could pay for weather events with 99% guarantee of realistic experience (from past events) which would you choose and how much?

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Oh no! The GFS lost its 18-24” forum-wide snow for April 1st. Guess our chances of that happening are officially over 

***sarcasm****

On a serious note… long range models seem to be honing in on the 29th - 1st as a window where we could potentially see cold air and precip line up. Another perfect timing, thread the needle type situation. What could possibly go wrong, right? :lol:

Suppose the million dollar question is how cold is this air mass, if it arrives, being that it’ll be March 29th - April 1st? We’d likely have to bank on snow falling at 32-33 degrees with precip falling overnight to see anything meaningful accumulate, unless we saw heavy enough rates to overcome the ugly ground truth of April in the mid Atlantic.

On a scale of 1-10… my interest in this “potential” is a 2 right now. It is 9+ days out and there are a million and a half reasons why this will likely fail.

If the GFS, Euro and Canadian are honking a snowstorm come day 3-4, then riddle me interested.   

 

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Damn WW. You've got the full range of emoticons for this past. :lol:

Not quite!  I added the "confused" emoticon, so now @Weather Will has officially hit for the cycle!  I do think @WinterWxLuvr got the record a few months ago for the most weenies (like 25 or something!), but offhand I can't remember what his post was for that!! :lol:

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52 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Not quite!  I added the "confused" emoticon, so now @Weather Will has officially hit for the cycle!  I do think @WinterWxLuvr got the record a few months ago for the most weenies (like 25 or something!), but offhand I can't remember what his post was for that!! :lol:

I think it was @clskinsfan that got the record. Talking about the long range pattern and said now weenie me lol.

I believe it was 40+ weenies

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7 hours ago, Chris78 said:

I think it was @clskinsfan that got the record. Talking about the long range pattern and said now weenie me lol.

I believe it was 40+ weenies

Ahhh yes, remember that more now. Didn’t know the post got up to 40+ weenies chucked his way! 

53 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. But I cheated and asked for the weenies. Other than that my post was completely wrong. Like usual. :)

Hey you were just gaming the refs! No different than "campaigning" for an Oscar! Still a remarkable number of weenies!

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18z GFS is ugly temp wise for the weekend... heavy upslope snow out west in the Allegheny Front and highs around 50 on Saturday for most and 40s for highs on Sunday across the region

Don't know if growing season has started yet, but frost/freeze concerns Monday morning... highs in the 45-50 too... yuck

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35 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z GFS is ugly temp wise for the weekend... heavy upslope snow out west in the Allegheny Front and highs around 50 on Saturday for most and 40s for highs on Sunday across the region

Don't know if growing season has started yet, but frost/freeze concerns Monday morning... highs in the 45-50 too... yuck

Forgive me but that sounds freakin awesome!  Prime rib and scotch Sunday

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43 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z GFS is ugly temp wise for the weekend... heavy upslope snow out west in the Allegheny Front and highs around 50 on Saturday for most and 40s for highs on Sunday across the region

Don't know if growing season has started yet, but frost/freeze concerns Monday morning... highs in the 45-50 too... yuck

That’s disgusting. Unpin this thread and let’s all pray for more weather like today. 

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13 hours ago, yoda said:

18z GFS is ugly temp wise for the weekend... heavy upslope snow out west in the Allegheny Front and highs around 50 on Saturday for most and 40s for highs on Sunday across the region

Don't know if growing season has started yet, but frost/freeze concerns Monday morning... highs in the 45-50 too... yuck

I’m not sure where the growing season has started. South Carolina, maybe?

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23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Wow 

I was kind of surprised it wasn't earlier for most of the area. I think it's the dates between the average first and last frost or freeze (not sure which one). Probably on the growing trend for the growing season. har har

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3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I was kind of surprised it wasn't earlier for most of the area. I think it's the dates between the average first and last frost or freeze (not sure which one). Probably on the growing trend for the growing season. har har

Warm-season crops like tomatoes and peppers can't be planted before the end of April, if even that early. You're just asking for all your hard work to go down the drain if an even relatively benign cold snap hits in the middle of the month. Other things like broccoli, lettuce, and peas are colder-weather crops and can easily handle an early-season frost / freeze or two.

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