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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Couple of big hits on the ensembles during this time frame.  At the very least, there looks like there will be a true Break from Spring the last weekend of March.

That look will probably never come to fruition, but how funny would it be if it did when it would be of little use. But yes pretty much all of the long term guidance is suggesting a chilly period for the end of the month. We need a pretty anomalously cold pattern to get it done at that point though. My interest is rapidly waning and the chances of getting significant snow in the lowlands at the end of March is pretty low.

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The point of the articles below is that it can still snow into April, not that it will.  Pattern last week of March will have to be monitored.


Source: Washington Post

From the start of snow records in the late 1880s, fairly regular April snow events continued until 1924. During that period, 2 storms were particularly noteworthy: (1) the April 3, 1915 Easter weekend storm, which left 3.5 inches in D.C., but 15-20 inches in a swath from Philadelphia to Dover, DE; and (2) the April Fool’s Storm of April 1, 1924, which dumped 5-6 inches of snow on the Nation’s Capital and 9 inches in Baltimore. The latter was D.C.’s greatest official April snowstorm and appeared to be the culmination of regular April snow events in Washington. Since then, there’s been only about one per decade.

Also of note:  On March 29, 1942 11.5 inches was measured at Reagan National. The storm produced over 2 feet of snow in parts of Maryland and northwestern Virginia. That snowstorm also ranks as Baltimore’s seventh-largest storm on record; 22 inches was measured.

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

:yikes:

1648771200-D1CEfCuoKls.png

Stop it. Really? Imagine having this exact look… but in late January.

It could snow with this look - especially up this way. Originally from New York, so I never completely rule out the chance of an April snow. Seen far too many of them occur.  Big Spring storm meets JUST cold enough air at night. Difficult? Very. Impossible? Nope. Only have to look back a year or two for April snows in these parts. Odds would be severely stacked against us, but I’ve seen worse if this was indeed the exact look we had at 500mb

Doubt the pattern unfolds exactly as depicted here anyway, but yea, that’d be something wouldn’t it?

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49 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Stop it. Really? Imagine having this exact look… but in late January.

It could snow with this look - especially up this way. Originally from New York, so I never completely rule out the chance of an April snow. Seen far too many of them occur.  Big Spring storm meets JUST cold enough air at night. Difficult? Very. Impossible? Nope. Only have to look back a year or two for April snows in these parts. Odds would be severely stacked against us, but I’ve seen worse if this was indeed the exact look we had at 500mb

Doubt the pattern unfolds exactly as depicted here anyway, but yea, that’d be something wouldn’t it?

I've always wanted to see an April storm. Never seen anything beyond a coating after 4/1, closest was March 30 2014 (I think?)

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another thing that's interesting about the dc data is that the standard deviation is 11" lol.  i'm math/stats rusty on the terms and confidence intervals, etc. (so feel free to correct me if i'm wrong), but in general you can expect about a 68% chance that the totals for a season will lie between 6" and 28", give or take.  that's a lot of variability from season to season.

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15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nah wasn't that like April 2nd that year? (At least the flurries I'm thinking of)

what I'm thinking of was like 2-3 inches in germantown. I think it was 3/30/14. happened during the day, huge flakes. there was a ton of slush everywhere

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Since I have lived over here, I have seen one snow "event" in April (the 5th maybe?), and it was 2" and fell in the evening. Cant recall the year but probably early/mid 90s. Once it stopped it melted. Barely a trace the next morning lol. It was wrap around from a big, slow moving storm off of the NE coast that retrograded. Very odd way to get snow and could probably only happen in the Spring. Have had some good March snow events in the past several years ofc, including the one in 2018 on the 20th. I remember a 3" snowfall at the end of March and it was pretty localized over this way- it fell at night(1990 maybe?). Other than that the only significant late March snow event that stands out was when I lived up in Carroll county, and it was the 1984 March 29th (Mayflower) storm. That was around 6", and probably the most sloppy wet snow ever- more like compacted slush during the daylight hours. Ratios were probably like 4:1.

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34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Since I have lived over here, I have seen one snow "event" in April (the 5th maybe?), and it was 2" and fell in the evening. Cant recall the year but probably early/mid 90s. Once it stopped it melted. Barely a trace the next morning lol. It was wrap around from a big, slow moving storm off of the NE coast that retrograded. Very odd way to get snow and could probably only happen in the Spring. Have had some good March snow events in the past several years ofc, including the one in 2018 on the 20th. I remember a 3" snowfall at the end of March and it was pretty localized over this way- it fell at night(1990 maybe?). Other than that the only significant late March snow event that stands out was when I lived up in Carroll county, and it was the 1984 March 29th (Mayflower) storm. That was around 6", and probably the most sloppy wet snow ever- more like compacted slush during the daylight hours. Ratios were probably like 4:1.

I remember the 1984 storm well. Of course because of the Colts. I lived approximately 2-3 miles south of the Colts complex in Owing Mills. I got about 2 inches of slush but it was quite a wintry scene that morning. Wind blown wet snow.  I always wondered how Westminster faired with that storm. Now I know lol. I think we had a 2 hour delay that they changed into schools closed. 

April 2nd/3rd 1990 2-4 inches fell in Pikesville/OwingsMills/Reisterstown corridor. Not sure How Carroll County did. 

April 1996 maybe the 9th? We were under a winter storm Warning. The warning didn't verify but it did snow all day. 1-2 of slop in Reisterstown. Areas further North/Northeast however did do well. 

Since I moved to Manchester in 2009 I can't remember an April where there weren't at the very least snow flurries/snow showers. Most years we have snow cover the ground in April. We had snow showers here in May of 2020.

The latest legit snow I can remember was in April 1993. Can't recall the date but pretty sure it was after the 10th. I was in Westminster because I attended Western Maryland College then and there was 2-3 inches. Snowed heavily all morning. Sane storm mid winter probably would've yielded 10 inches.

 

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57 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Since I have lived over here, I have seen one snow "event" in April (the 5th maybe?), and it was 2" and fell in the evening. Cant recall the year but probably early/mid 90s. Once it stopped it melted. Barely a trace the next morning lol. It was wrap around from a big, slow moving storm off of the NE coast that retrograded. Very odd way to get snow and could probably only happen in the Spring. Have had some good March snow events in the past several years ofc, including the one in 2018 on the 20th. I remember a 3" snowfall at the end of March and it was pretty localized over this way- it fell at night(1990 maybe?). Other than that the only significant late March snow event that stands out was when I lived up in Carroll county, and it was the 1984 March 29th (Mayflower) storm. That was around 6", and probably the most sloppy wet snow ever- more like compacted slush during the daylight hours. Ratios were probably like 4:1.

It’s been a while, but it snowed in Charles County, MD on my birthday, April 23, 1986. In early May of 1992, it snowed in the mountains of NC near my in-laws. It was at least 6-8”. That’s the latest I’ve ever seen. 

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33 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I remember the 1984 storm well. Of course because of the Colts. I lived approximately 2-3 miles south of the Colts complex in Owing Mills. I got about 2 inches of slush but it was quite a wintry scene that morning. Wind blown wet snow.  I always wondered how Westminster faired with that storm. Now I know lol. I think we had a 2 hour delay that they changed into schools closed. 

April 2nd/3rd 1990 2-4 inches fell in Pikesville/OwingsMills/Reisterstown corridor. Not sure How Carroll County did. 

April 1996 maybe the 9th? We were under a winter storm Warning. The warning didn't verify but it did snow all day. 1-2 of slop in Reisterstown. Areas further North/Northeast however did do well. 

Since I moved to Manchester in 2009 I can't remember an April where there weren't at the very least snow flurries/snow showers. Most years we have snow cover the ground in April. We had snow showers here in May of 2020.

The latest legit snow I can remember was in April 1993. Can't recall the date but pretty sure it was after the 10th. I was in Westminster because I attended Western Maryland College then and there was 2-3 inches. Snowed heavily all morning. Sane storm mid winter probably would've yielded 10 inches.

 

Yeah the 84 storm was fun but also depressing as a Colts fan. We knew that was inevitable though, as the drunken asshole owner had been shopping them around for years. May he rest in piss.

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7 hours ago, Weather Will said:

The point of the articles below is that it can still snow into April, not that it will.  Pattern last week of March will have to be monitored.


Source: Washington Post

From the start of snow records in the late 1880s, fairly regular April snow events continued until 1924. During that period, 2 storms were particularly noteworthy: (1) the April 3, 1915 Easter weekend storm, which left 3.5 inches in D.C., but 15-20 inches in a swath from Philadelphia to Dover, DE; and (2) the April Fool’s Storm of April 1, 1924, which dumped 5-6 inches of snow on the Nation’s Capital and 9 inches in Baltimore. The latter was D.C.’s greatest official April snowstorm and appeared to be the culmination of regular April snow events in Washington. Since then, there’s been only about one per decade.

Also of note:  On March 29, 1942 11.5 inches was measured at Reagan National. The storm produced over 2 feet of snow in parts of Maryland and northwestern Virginia. That snowstorm also ranks as Baltimore’s seventh-largest storm on record; 22 inches was measured.

Hm...3.5 inches to D.C. but 15-20 in DE...Oh wow I wonder which enso state THAT was? And what kind of system it was? Lol (3 guesses and ya only need one each)

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2 hours ago, ge0 said:

what I'm thinking of was like 2-3 inches in germantown. I think it was 3/30/14. happened during the day, huge flakes. there was a ton of slush everywhere

I'm pretty sure you're right that it was March 30.  It capped off a ridiculous March with a 5-6" cold powder the first week, 10 inches on the 17th, then that March 30 event.  Crazy

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9 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I'm pretty sure you're right that it was March 30.  It capped off a ridiculous March with a 5-6" cold powder the first week, 10 inches on the 17th, then that March 30 event.  Crazy

Yeah, March 30, 2014.  I remember that pretty well.  It rained most of the time (cold rain), then in the mid-afternoon or so it changed to snow.  Large flakes, almost like ice chunks.  Got about an inch where I'm at.  It did indeed cap off an amazing March.  The cold powder you mentioned was Mar. 3, I got 5.3" then (temperatures were in like the mid 20s that afternoon!).  Mar. 16-17 (St. Pat's snow!!), 8.0" where I am.  Then on the 25th, 3.0", followed by that "surprise" inch on the 30th.  Incredible for the month of March, in an incredible nearly wall-to-wall winter!

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23 hours ago, Weather Will said:

The point of the articles below is that it can still snow into April, not that it will.  Pattern last week of March will have to be monitored.


Source: Washington Post

From the start of snow records in the late 1880s, fairly regular April snow events continued until 1924. During that period, 2 storms were particularly noteworthy: (1) the April 3, 1915 Easter weekend storm, which left 3.5 inches in D.C., but 15-20 inches in a swath from Philadelphia to Dover, DE; and (2) the April Fool’s Storm of April 1, 1924, which dumped 5-6 inches of snow on the Nation’s Capital and 9 inches in Baltimore. The latter was D.C.’s greatest official April snowstorm and appeared to be the culmination of regular April snow events in Washington. Since then, there’s been only about one per decade.

Also of note:  On March 29, 1942 11.5 inches was measured at Reagan National. The storm produced over 2 feet of snow in parts of Maryland and northwestern Virginia. That snowstorm also ranks as Baltimore’s seventh-largest storm on record; 22 inches was measured.

As recently as April 7, 2007, it snowed about an inch in D.C., but 0.4" was the official measurement at DCA.  Here's a shot I took that day at the Capitol.

April7Snow.jpg

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