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Feb 24-25, 2022 Ice/Sleet/Rain/Snow (yeah sure) Storm Thread


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

What you said! Haha

NBM is very intuitive and has so many parts, but it is a great tool to use on certain setups, and ice is actually not bad for a general storm sense since it drowns out the noise from the extreme members that could skew means considerably. I will saw it is not the best when it comes to extreme temp variations compared to climo and larger impact events that have a mesoscale foot print like a major snow/ice event or severe out break. They can give an idea of what could occur in a smoothed sense, but knowing your biases can help formulate a better forecast. 

That is awesome that you have worked with the Blend. I would love to hear more of the nitty gritty with NBM as I've used it for forecast purposes now for almost 4 years. 

Thanks!  Yeah, it's far from perfect but it's improved over the years based on feedback, etc., from the field and others.  I can see how it wouldn't fare as well in the cases you mentioned.  Sort of how MOS cannot handle such events, though the NBM isn't really "MOS" (it does use that as one input, though).  In some instances we use other techniques for the "blended" forecast.  Such as things related to thunderstorms and severe weather from the SPC, or using the FRAM for the ice accretion that you displayed above.  Snow-liquid ratio is perhaps about the most tricky parameter, as I'm sure you're aware.  You can get some really wacky values at times, which would affect the total snow amounts.

I'd be glad to bend your ear some about the Blend sometime.  Glad it's proving to be useful at least as a starting point in the forecast process.  Though I work on some aspects of it, I would hesitate to say I'm all-knowing by any means.  It's got a lot of "tentacles" so to speak.  There are many who work on this, of course, and have "taken on" various elements.  I also work with the whole implementation process (sometimes, I wish I didn't, but anyhow, LOL!!!) and getting that all organized.  Which is a task in itself.

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4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I don't think Rain at 30 will do much after temps the past few days

Im more Interested in the sleet potential some of the models are showing. Could be a several hour period of sleet tomorrow evening which would be interesting 

Most of the freezing rain potential comes after the sun goes down tomorrow eve.  Dark, 30 and rain will have no problem on trees and power lines especially after a day of temps around freezing. You are going to be in a nasty spot if temps pan out as forecast, imo.   

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2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Thanks!  Yeah, it's far from perfect but it's improved over the years based on feedback, etc., from the field and others.  I can see how it wouldn't fare as well in the cases you mentioned.  Sort of how MOS cannot handle such events, though the NBM isn't really "MOS" (it does use that as one input, though).  In some instances we use other techniques for the "blended" forecast.  Such as things related to thunderstorms and severe weather from the SPC, or using the FRAM for the ice accretion that you displayed above.  Snow-liquid ratio is perhaps about the most tricky parameter, as I'm sure you're aware.  You can get some really wacky values at times, which would affect the total snow amounts.

I'd be glad to bend your ear some about the Blend sometime.  Glad it's proving to be useful at least as a starting point in the forecast process.  Though I work on some aspects of it, I would hesitate to say I'm all-knowing by any means.  It's got a lot of "tentacles" so to speak.  There are many who work on this, of course, and have "taken on" various elements.  I also work with the whole implementation process (sometimes, I wish I didn't, but anyhow, LOL!!!) and getting that all organized.  Which is a task in itself.

Would absolutely love to chat at some point about all this! I have a lot of feedback to give for even my area of the country and how it fares. Perhaps a virtual meetup with a cocktail is in order? ;)

Feel free to PM me!

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This may surprise, but I am leaning milder for MD and definitely VA, the cold push will be repelled slowly but surely and the ice or sleet will be largely confined to the northern tier of counties in MD and southern PA, as temps recover to mid to high 40s F around midnight, with a south wind resuming by 8 p.m. ... there could be minor icing further south before this pushback sets in. Maybe this is not very different from what others are expecting, I haven't read every post just the more recent ones. 

This looks like the typical early spring coastal transfer upstate NY-nPA-inland NE snowstorm scenario with 8-12 inch potential there. Worst icing from this around Reading PA. 

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8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

This may surprise, but I am leaning milder for MD and definitely VA, the cold push will be repelled slowly but surely and the ice or sleet will be largely confined to the northern tier of counties in MD and southern PA, as temps recover to mid to high 40s F around midnight, with a south wind resuming by 8 p.m. ... there could be minor icing further south before this pushback sets in. Maybe this is not very different from what others are expecting, I haven't read every post just the more recent ones. 

This looks like the typical early spring coastal transfer upstate NY-nPA-inland NE snowstorm scenario with 8-12 inch potential there. Worst icing from this around Reading PA. 

Agree.  It’s not really a stretch in thinking.  Our best ice events come with a wedged in arctic high over upstate NY that ends up retreating slowly east.  Starts as snow and transitions but the low level cold is slow to erode with snow changing to  light rain of drizzle with light winds. This setup has none of that.  We are just talking about this out of sheer boredom.  

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2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

This may surprise, but I am leaning milder for MD and definitely VA, the cold push will be repelled slowly but surely and the ice or sleet will be largely confined to the northern tier of counties in MD and southern PA, as temps recover to mid to high 40s F around midnight, with a south wind resuming by 8 p.m. ... there could be minor icing further south before this pushback sets in. Maybe this is not very different from what others are expecting, I haven't read every post just the more recent ones. 

 

        I'm calling complete and total b.s. here.     There isn't a model that gets 40 degrees to DC or even close by midnight tomorrow night, much less mid to upper 40s.     This isn't some 995 sfc low blasting by to our northwest;  it's a weak surface system with an accompanying weak pressure gradient, and the cold wedge will take time to erode.

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