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Feb 24-25, 2022 Ice/Sleet/Rain/Snow (yeah sure) Storm Thread


WinterWxLuvr
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20 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

IAD sounding has a thin, but stout, cold layer from 900-950.  Will be interesting to see if it is enough to refreeze (sleet).

   PRES   HGHT   TEMP   DWPT   RELH   MIXR   DRCT   SKNT   THTA   THTE   THTV
    hPa     m      C      C      %    g/kg    deg   knot     K      K      K 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1019.0     93    2.2   -4.8     60   2.64     25      6  273.9  281.3  274.3
 1000.0    238    0.4   -6.6     59   2.34     25      9  273.6  280.2  273.9
  938.0    746   -4.3   -7.6     78   2.31     45     11  273.8  280.3  274.2
  933.0    789   -4.7   -7.7     80   2.31     39     12  273.8  280.4  274.2
  929.0    823   -3.5  -12.5     50   1.58     35     13  275.4  280.0  275.6
  926.0    848   -2.5  -13.5     43   1.46     28     13  276.7  281.0  276.9
  925.0    857   -2.3  -13.3     43   1.49     25     13  276.9  281.4  277.2
  921.0    891   -1.9  -12.9     43   1.55     13     13  277.7  282.3  278.0
  914.0    952   -1.7  -10.7     50   1.86    352     13  278.5  284.0  278.8
  911.0    978   -1.5   -6.5     69   2.59    343     13  279.0  286.4  279.4
  908.0   1005   -0.7   -3.6     81   3.24    334     13  280.1  289.3  280.6
  905.0   1031    2.0   -1.6     77   3.78    325     13  283.1  293.9  283.8
  903.0   1049    2.0   -1.5     78   3.81    323     13  283.3  294.2  283.9
  886.0   1202    1.3   -0.9     85   4.05    305     10  284.1  295.8  284.8
  876.0   1293    0.9   -0.6     90   4.20    275      8  284.6  296.7  285.4
  873.0   1321    0.8   -0.5     91   4.24    264     10  284.8  297.0  285.5
  869.0   1358    1.3    0.2     93   4.50    250     13  285.7  298.6  286.5
  865.0   1395    1.8    1.0     94   4.78    248     16  286.6  300.3  287.4
  860.0   1442    2.8    1.3     90   4.91    245     20  288.1  302.3  289.0
  858.0   1461    3.4   -0.6     75   4.29    244     21  288.9  301.5  289.7
  856.0   1480    3.6    0.7     81   4.73    243     23  289.3  303.1  290.1
  853.0   1508    3.8   -2.2     65   3.83    242     25  289.8  301.1  290.5
  852.0   1518    3.8   -0.3     75   4.41    241     26  289.9  302.9  290.7
  851.0   1527    3.8    1.4     84   5.00    241     26  290.0  304.6  290.9
  850.0   1537    3.8    1.6     86   5.08    240     27  290.1  304.9  291.0
  849.0   1547    3.8    1.5     85   5.05    240     28  290.2  304.9  291.1
  847.0   1566    4.6   -1.4     65   4.09    240     29  291.2  303.4  292.0
  845.0   1585    5.2   -1.8     61   3.98    240     30  292.1  303.9  292.8
  844.0   1595    5.2   -0.8     65   4.29    240     30  292.2  304.9  292.9
  842.0   1614    5.0    2.3     83   5.39    240     31  292.2  308.0  293.1
  838.0   1653    5.0    3.7     91   5.99    241     31  292.6  310.1  293.6
  830.0   1731    4.4    4.4    100   6.36    242     32  292.7  311.3  293.9
  814.0   1890    3.4    3.0     97   5.87    245     34  293.3  310.5  294.3
  811.0   1920    3.6   -0.2     76   4.67    246     34  293.8  307.7  294.6
  810.0   1930    3.6   -0.5     75   4.58    246     34  293.9  307.6  294.7

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

It was issued very early this morning. 

Yeah but if im not mistaken the original headlines were for it beginning 7PM tonight. Now, they have the north and west counties starting now. Looks like they touched on it in the 930 discussion.

Strong high pressure is building across Canada this morning,
advecting colder and drier air into the area. 12z KIAD RAOB
suggests dominant precipitation type would be sleet, but
observations are showing light rain with temperatures falling to
near or below freezing across northern Maryland, far
northwestern Virginia and eastern West Virginia. That coupled
with hi-res guidance showing freezing rain over those areas has
prompted us to start the winter weather headlines now instead of
later today. Impacts overall may be limited until this evening
given marginal temperatures and seasonally higher sun angle, but
icing impacts likely increase quickly after dark.
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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah but if im not mistaken the original headlines were for it beginning 7PM tonight. Now, they have the north and west counties starting now. Looks like they touched on it in the 930 discussion.

Strong high pressure is building across Canada this morning,
advecting colder and drier air into the area. 12z KIAD RAOB
suggests dominant precipitation type would be sleet, but
observations are showing light rain with temperatures falling to
near or below freezing across northern Maryland, far
northwestern Virginia and eastern West Virginia. That coupled
with hi-res guidance showing freezing rain over those areas has
prompted us to start the winter weather headlines now instead of
later today. Impacts overall may be limited until this evening
given marginal temperatures and seasonally higher sun angle, but
icing impacts likely increase quickly after dark.

yeah i just deleted my post. you're right. it was originally to start at 7pm

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i'm sort of kidding, but it's literally been in the 60s for several days in a row leading into this.  i suppose trees and such could ice, but there's some factors against impacts here.  we'll see.  i'd rather it just snow lol.

probably best not to spike a football before the event even gets going. the worst impacts for the northern tier was never forecast to be happening during the day today. it was always later tonight and into tomorrow morning.

will it ice a quarter inch or more? no, probably not. But chances are there will be ice, and at least a glaze or more for a good portion of the northern tier folks. 

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

No? Not up in northern maryland maybe.

i mean...honest question...how quickly will ground temps freeze after temps the last few days?  we're also dealing with daylight mitigating a big drop in temps as well.  i'm being imby, but i'm sure far northern and western md will be a different ballgame.

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7 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i mean...honest question...how quickly will ground temps freeze after temps the last few days?  we're also dealing with daylight mitigating a big drop in temps as well.  i'm being imby, but i'm sure far northern and western md will be a different ballgame.

probably about the same time it took for places to accumulate snow on Jan 3 after 2 days of 50/60s temps. maybe a little bit longer given sun angle. 

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8 minutes ago, mappy said:

probably best not to spike a football before the event even gets going. the worst impacts for the northern tier was never forecast to be happening during the day today. it was always later tonight and into tomorrow morning.

will it ice a quarter inch or more? no, probably not. But chances are there will be ice, and at least a glaze or more for a good portion of the northern tier folks. 

i was mostly kidding.  i've been in this game long enough to know that debby'ing a storm can end up making someone look like an idiot, which is why i rarely do it anymore lol.  i really am curious how quickly ground temps, etc., will follow air temps after the mild weather we've had.  haven't seen it talked about anywhere, but it does matter.  but yes, when dealing with ice, it's better to err on the side of caution...and to also wear shoes that don't make you fall on your ass.  not that i would know anything about that.

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

probably about the same time it took for places to accumulate snow on Jan 3 after 2 days of 50/60s temps. maybe a little bit longer given sun angle. 

i'm not talking about snow.  we know ice has a difficult time accumulating on roads here even in early january.

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