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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Think our only hope will be if a good enough push of rain cooled air from those storms pushes east and kicks off something closer. If I wasn't a weather enthusiast and looked at this radar - I'd be expecting a pummeling tonight. 

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14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Think our only hope will be if a good enough push of rain cooled air from those storms pushes east and kicks off something closer. If I wasn't a weather enthusiast and looked at this radar - I'd be expecting a pummeling tonight. 

But since we are we know to expect disappointment. 

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
651 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Washington County in north central Maryland...
  Western Frederick County in north central Maryland...
  Northwestern Loudoun County in northern Virginia...
  Central Clarke County in northwestern Virginia...
  Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...
  East central Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...

* Until 715 PM EDT.

* At 650 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Paramount-Long Meadow to near Berryville,
  moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Frederick, Hagerstown, Thurmont, Charles Town, Emmitsburg,
  Shepherdstown, Municipal Stadium, Purcellville, Robinwood,
  Brunswick, Fountainhead-Orchard Hills, Ranson, Berryville,
  Boonsboro, Smithsburg, Braddock Heights, Paramount-Long Meadow,
  Mount Aetna, Round Hill and Mount Lena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
 
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     Monday definitely has some really good SVR potential here.    CAPE is extremely high in several models, and deep layer shear will be more than adequate.    I'd say that we could get a day 2 ENH, but the timing on a few solutions might preclude that.     The idea of a dying line of storms in the morning rejuvenating in the early afternoon could still work fine, but that scenario finds a way to screw us more often than it should.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Tomorrow looks decent. Any time we have high CAPE and a big airmass change, someone wins.

      Right, and we have respectable shear too.     My concern remains, however, that several CAMs have a dying line arriving during the morning.    Most of the solutions still allow us to get hot and generate new strong storms on the outflow, but the coverage isn't what I would expect to see in the setup, and we all know that this type of scenario fails here with great ease.    I'm still optimistic (honestly, I just want some rain!), but it's a cautious optimism.  

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8 hours ago, high risk said:

      Right, and we have respectable shear too.     My concern remains, however, that several CAMs have a dying line arriving during the morning.    Most of the solutions still allow us to get hot and generate new strong storms on the outflow, but the coverage isn't what I would expect to see in the setup, and we all know that this type of scenario fails here with great ease.    I'm still optimistic (honestly, I just want some rain!), but it's a cautious optimism.  

      I feel even better after looking at the 00Z suite, especially for those south of I-70.

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