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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


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2 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Seems like the models have a good grasp of what things look like right now. Rough Monday and Friday for forecasters for our area. Swing and a miss.

       Totally get where you're coming from on this, but I'll throw out 2 counterpoints:

   1)   For today, remember that SPC has to have boundaries on their watches *somewhere*, and if you're in one of those "last counties", unless you've got an adjacent watch box on the other side of the box, your threat is pretty low.    They typically make the watches slightly bigger than needed to allow for some margin for error.   The chances of SVR today extending all the way south to Howard were always pretty low.    

   2)    Monday was frustrating, but the big hail-producing cell that crushed the southern DC burbs shows that high-end potential did exist.    The failure was overpredicting the coverage, which happened after the poorly-modeled midday convection screwed up the environment for a lot of us.

  

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On 5/16/2022 at 5:49 PM, WxUSAF said:

WxUSAF: marked SAFE from the Mid-Atlantic’s first Day 1 ENH of 2022

WxUSAF: marked SAFE from the Mid-Atlantic’s first Tornado Watch of 2022

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5 hours ago, high risk said:

       Totally get where you're coming from on this, but I'll throw out 2 counterpoints:

   1)   For today, remember that SPC has to have boundaries on their watches *somewhere*, and if you're in one of those "last counties", unless you've got an adjacent watch box on the other side of the box, your threat is pretty low.    They typically make the watches slightly bigger than needed to allow for some margin for error.   The chances of SVR today extending all the way south to Howard were always pretty low.    

   2)    Monday was frustrating, but the big hail-producing cell that crushed the southern DC burbs shows that high-end potential did exist.    The failure was overpredicting the coverage, which happened after the poorly-modeled midday convection screwed up the environment for a lot of us.

  

As one who was stuck in the car being bombed by teacup sized hail with nowhere to hide I'd say consider yourself very lucky that Monday was a miss.  My car is covered in dents and the trees were shredded.  Who wants that?

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3 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Well... I'd pay big bucks to experience monster hail lol

I saved a dozen or so hailstones in my freezer.  Send me a couple Gs to help repair my car dents and cracks in my home siding and I'll throw them at your windows as hard as I can.  It's a win-win for both of us.  

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39 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I saved a dozen or so hailstones in my freezer.  Send me a couple Gs to help repair my car dents and cracks in my home siding and I'll throw them at your windows as hard as I can.  It's a win-win for both of us.  

I'm with you!

For those asking for it let me tell you something.  When you've never feared for your life, you think that's something you want.  It's most certainly NOT!  I've gotten older and for the most part, wiser.  I've experienced severe property damage AND bodily injury in the form of central nervous system damage and sensory impairment from sideflashes from being too close to CG.  Have huge respect for all aspects.  Being told by authorities that a shelter was safe when in fact it wasn't due to the plans being wrong (elevation 20 feet lower than actual) and having to climb above a drop ceiling holding on to sprinkler system pipes to escape storm surge waters.  I could write a book regaling my tales of experience both at sea and on land from weather both expected and unexpected, my fault and not, etc.  I remember when I always thought it would be neat to be in an earthquake and when I experienced it I realized it was something I would not want.  It's like something straight out of a Stephen King horror story!  And I'm more of the "back woodsy" kind of guy that's been around danger and on occasion shaken hands with it numerous times.

Be careful what you wish for! ;)

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5 hours ago, Stormfly said:

I'm with you!

For those asking for it let me tell you something.  When you've never feared for your life, you think that's something you want.  It's most certainly NOT!  I've gotten older and for the most part, wiser.  I've experienced severe property damage AND bodily injury in the form of central nervous system damage and sensory impairment from sideflashes from being too close to CG.  Have huge respect for all aspects.  Being told by authorities that a shelter was safe when in fact it wasn't due to the plans being wrong (elevation 20 feet lower than actual) and having to climb above a drop ceiling holding on to sprinkler system pipes to escape storm surge waters.  I could write a book regaling my tales of experience both at sea and on land from weather both expected and unexpected, my fault and not, etc.  I remember when I always thought it would be neat to be in an earthquake and when I experienced it I realized it was something I would not want.  It's like something straight out of a Stephen King horror story!  And I'm more of the "back woodsy" kind of guy that's been around danger and on occasion shaken hands with it numerous times.

Be careful what you wish for! ;)

Water and lightning: two very serious forces I have no interest in testing too much. 

And earthquakes. The west can have that lol.

 

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12 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I hope the next DC-area wedge destroys your home!

How much you drink today?? I know for me, Wine in the Woods (Columbia) crossed with all my friends at Hysteria, Oliver’s and Sapwood at the fest today made for one hell of day! Damn it was hot in the sun though. Imagine that. Hot…sun. LOL. :drunk:

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Hmmm... from the new Day 1 SPC OTLK this morning... its 0/5/5 right now with us in MRGL... but:

 

Early this morning, a substantial amount of convection has
   progressed into the TN Valley and there is some indication a weak
   disturbance could evolve from the middle TN activity by sunrise. If
   so, this feature would progress northeast and likely contribute to
   renewed convection over the middle Atlantic later today. At this
   time will not extend SLGT Risk into MD/VA to account for this
   threat, as this feature may be more readily ascertained by late
   morning.
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 Mesoscale Discussion 0869
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of northern/central VA into the eastern WV
   Panhandle...MD...PA...NY...NJ...DC...and a small part of New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 221620Z - 221845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and hail should increase as
   thunderstorms develop by early this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly clear skies ahead of a front will
   allow the airmass to quickly destabilize into early this afternoon
   across parts of VA/MD/PA/NY and vicinity. A rather moist low-level
   airmass is in place across this region, with generally 60s to low
   70s surface dewpoints. Fairly cool mid-level temperatures are also
   present, which coupled with continued diurnal heating will likely
   support MLCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Locally
   greater instability is possible across PA, MD, and VA where better
   low-level moisture is present. The stronger mid-level flow
   associated with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern
   Canada should remain displaced mostly to the west of the surface
   warm sector. Still, around 25-35 kt of southwesterly winds at 500 mb
   (weaker with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic) should foster
   similar values of effective bulk shear and some updraft
   organization. Mainly multicell clusters are expected to develop
   early this afternoon, initially over the higher terrain of
   VA/MD/PA/NY. As this activity strengthens and spreads eastward, it
   should be capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and
   perhaps isolated hail. Most guidance suggests that initial
   thunderstorm development will occur by 17-18Z (1-2 PM EDT). A Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued around that time frame to
   address the increasing threat through the rest of the afternoon.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/22/2022
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Deep-layer shear in our area is really crap (way better to the north), but given that storms will likely be organized and that the soundings have some appreciable downdraft CAPE, I guess I can get on board with the idea of a watch being issued.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2022

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-
043-510-230100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0261.220522T1755Z-220523T0100Z/

MD
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL         BALTIMORE           CALVERT
CARROLL              CECIL               CHARLES
FREDERICK            HARFORD             HOWARD
KENT                 MONTGOMERY          PRINCE GEORGES
QUEEN ANNE`S         ST. MARYS           TALBOT
WASHINGTON


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2022 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC003-013-015-043-047-059-061-069-079-099-107-113-125-137-139- 153-157-165-171-177-179-187-510-540-600-610-630-660-683-685-790- 820-840-230100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0261.220522T1755Z-220523T0100Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON AUGUSTA CLARKE CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FREDERICK GREENE KING GEORGE LOUDOUN MADISON NELSON ORANGE PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG HARRISONBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK STAUNTON WAYNESBORO WINCHESTER $$

 


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2022

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DCC001-230100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0261.220522T1755Z-220523T0100Z/

DC
.    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA


 

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
335 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland...
  Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 334 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Point Of
  Rocks, or 9 miles southwest of Harry Grove Stadium, moving east at
  15 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Frederick, Harry Grove Stadium, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick,
  Braddock Heights, New Market, Point Of Rocks,
  Linganore-Bartonsville, Adamstown, Jefferson, Buckeystown,
  Monrovia, Rosemont, Ijamsville, Doubs, Park Mills, Petersville,
  Tuscarora and Taylorstown.
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Updated Severe warning for the storm near Middleburg.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
358 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  West central Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia...
  North central Fairfax County in northern Virginia...

* Until 445 PM EDT.

* At 358 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Middleburg,
  or 8 miles west of Brambleton, moving east at 15 mph.

 

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Special Marine Warning
ANZ535-222145-
/O.NEW.KLWX.MA.W.0045.220522T2047Z-220522T2145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
447 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...
  Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD...

* Until 545 PM EDT.

* At 446 PM EDT, thunderstorm gust fronts were located along a line
  extending from 12 nm west of Key Bridge to 14 nm west of
  Alexandria to 17 nm northwest of Mason Neck State Park, moving
  southeast at 15 knots.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts 34 knots or greater.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Boaters in small craft could be thrown overboard by
           suddenly higher winds and waves capsizing their vessel.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fort Washington, Tidal Basin, Reagan National Airport, Gunston
  Hall, Woodrow Wilson Bridge, Key Bridge, Fort Hunt, National Harbor
  and Alexandria.


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Just had the most intense thunderstorm I've seen in years here.  I was just arriving back from College Park after moving kids out of apartment and it hit right as we got off 270.  We crawled the last three miles with 50-60 mph winds, blinding rain and close lightning.

Got home and was pleasantly surprised to see my dozens of seedlings and flowers still on a table out in the yard -- I was afraid they would have been blown off.  Just as I said "phew" the HAIL started!  I got real worried for a minute but it was never more than nicked sized.

I don't like hail.  At all.  I have seen baseball sized hail twice in my life -- Kettering, MD in 1978 and Orlando, FL in 1992 where windows were smashed, cars and roofs were ruined, and I never want to see it again.

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