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Feb 4 2022 Stupid Ice Threat


mappy
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Just now, lpaschall said:

Same in Westminster. 35

we will probably hit freezing right as the precip moves out. guess surfaces could freeze later with standing water and stuff

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1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

I love drastic temperature drops, especially during summer thunderstorms.  My best memory of a drastic temperature drop is going in to a Caps game years ago in a  very warm rainstorm and walking out of the game looking for our car in several inches of snow.  The snow was not predicted as far as I know.  I think it was probably around ‘97 or ‘98. 

My favorite was March 8, 1995.  I remember mowing the lawn in shorts and a T-shirt in the afternoon, and coming out of a photography show with my dad around 9 at night to upper 20s and 2-3 inches of snow on the ground.  Wind chills were in the single digits the next morning.

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11 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Been out all day. Haven’t looked at anything until the last 15 min since I got home. It was pretty toasty on 70 and down 27 from Mt Airy to Laytonsville area. I will say there was some cooler air out in NE MD where I drove down. Regardless, cold front will move through overnight for the northern half of the sub. Temps will crash pretty quick post front with below freezing by 9am over the northern tier leading some ice accretion. Elevated areas will of course be better for ice formation, but the surface will cool quickly and road conditions will deteriorate the back half of the event. 
 

NAM Nest and NSSL WRF are both pretty good agreement with ice potential. FRAM estimates over the northern tier are anywhere from 0.05 to 0.25 depending on model. Mappyland is probably the best spot for ice given the setup. A place like Shrewsbury will certainly be the target for ice. I’d avoid I-83 north of Monkton today if traveling. 
 

I still think a light ice is possible for those areas like Damascus/Monkton/Reisterstown with areas along I-70, east of Woodbine a very borderline call. WWA is probably great call right now for the situation. If things break perfect, Hereford zone in Balt Co could get a warning, but that might be a stretch. Either way, cold is coming, so get the jackets ready. I have one more full day here, so I’ll enjoy my precip since it’s hard on come by in West TX. Night y’all! 

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Temp has been hanging around 37-38 all morning. 

As stubborn as the GFS was it certainly wasn't right with the cold push it was advertising.

A couple days ago it had me at 23 -24 degrees at noon with Freezing rain changing to sleet with a gradual change to snow during the afternoon .

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Temps around York and Harrisburg are at or around freezing . Some light  frozen starting to show up in the Catoctins on radar 

a lovely 33.1 and mist/drizzle here. blah. 

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