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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 2


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4 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Front is slower by about 6 hours.  Southern wave more neutral tilt out west...maybe better for the main storm.  Maybe.

As you mention, the trough is closer to neutral tilt and is also a good bit faster as well. However, heights are lower ahead of it prior to any ejection.

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14 minutes ago, Powerball said:

One trend that seems to be legit is that the models are getting beefier with the amounts from that first round. The 00z NAM continues that trend.

Thats actually a bit of hope where we're at here.  At least with a fully phased system its like a hooker, you pretty much know what your gonna get.  These quasi phased half slop messes more often than not with the second part we get bent over like the last goat in a herd in the desert whithout a courtesy reach around.

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1 minute ago, Powerball said:

It makes sense.

As the first wave trends beefier, it surpresses heights in its wakdthat forces the 2nd wave further south, along with the better forcing.

Looks to be more tied to the wave diving into the Pac NW, which eventually gets involved with the wave coming out of the SW.

Notice how earlier runs had that wave diving more southward into the West, before eventually trending further NW with less of a dive the past several runs. This in turn has lead the heights being shunted down ahead of the main ejecting trough.

This run seemed to reverse the Pac NW wave issues a bit, but the faster timing of the SW wave ended up still lowering heights.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looks to be more tied to the wave diving into the Pac NW, which eventually gets involved with the wave coming out of the SW.

Notice how earlier runs had that wave diving more southward into the West, before eventually trending further NW with less of a dive the past several runs. This in turn has lead the heights being shunted down ahead of the main ejecting trough.

This run seemed to reverse the Pac NW wave issues a bit, but the faster timing of the SW wave ended up still lowering heights.

It did try to finally cut towards the end there, but still too little too late for those on the northern edge.

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1 minute ago, Powerball said:

It did try to finally cut towards the end there, but still too little too late for those on the northern edge.

The change this run did end up making for a more organized storm system a bit as it moved east through the sub-forum (IN/OH/MI).

Still a few bumps back the other direction before it would be really noteworthy.

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