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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 2


Chicago Storm
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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

The change this run did end up making for a more organized storm system a bit as it moved east through the sub-forum (IN/OH/MI).

Still a few bumps back the other direction before it would be really noteworthy.

There is certainly the remote possibility that enough spacing between the first and second wave could allow for that 2nd wave to cut to Cincinnati, which would bring back the solution we were seeing a couple days ago.

 

 

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It seems MBY continues to be at a real battleground with respect to warm layer. 18z RGEM and 12z GGEM maintain warm layer aloft well into Thursday which keeps us mixed for most of the event; NAM, EURO, GFS have trended toward warm layer cooling by late Wednesday night/00z Thursday which keeps us snow for precip thrust from the main low which is resulting in these boosted forecast totals. I'm liking my chances especially given the new 00z guidance, we'll see how RGEM and GGEM trend tonight. EDIT: RGEM came in slightly cooler, with changeover around 6z Thursday.

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