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  • Location:
    Huron Mtns/ Northern Marquette County
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    SNOW, nature, animals, peace
  1. A good read: .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 454 AM EST SUN DEC 3 2017 ...High impact weather expected Tue into Wed... WV loop shows deep cold trough along west coast this morning with strong jet stream downstream across much of the Conus. Another shortwave trough that will need watching is well to the north over Canadian Northwest Territories. West coast trough moves to High Plains by Mon morning with associated 993-995mb low vcnty of eastern Neb/eastern SD/southwest MN. Increasing very moist south flow ahead of sfc-h85 low, with pwats up to 1 inch (250-300 pct of normal), sfc dwpnts well into the 40s along with elevated instability per SI/s blo 0 point to swath of showers and possible thunderstorms lifting across Upper Michigan through the day. Temps on Mon should easily reach mid to upper 40s with some lower 50s possible. As sfc low tracks to western Lk Superior/western Upper Michigan by Mon evening, 40-50 kt H85 jet and pressure falls spreading over Lk Superior and into northern Ontario should support strong/gusty south winds even with stable low-levels. Dry slot moving in from south should diminish rain in the evening, especially south. Things could get very interesting in terms of winds later Mon night into Tue morning as shortwave trough over area phases with the current northwest Canada shortwave trough. Result will be sharply deepening sfc low (falling to a pressure of 975-978mb by 12z...which is less than 29.0 inches on a home barometer) tracking to just north of Lk Superior. If some models are right this would be a drop of pressure of over 12mb in 12 hours. 3 hr pressure rises near 10mb swinging across western U.P. will provide favorable isallobaric component as it will be alligned with WSW sfc winds. Soundings show cold air advection deepening mixed layer to at least H800 or 5kft AGL. NAM/GFS/ECMWF winds in that mixed layer are 45-50 kts during the time of cold air advection. Instability/winds aloft and added factor of pressure rises could lead to possible high wind warning criteria gusts near 60 mph over parts of west half of Upper Michigan. At the least a period of 40-50 mph wind gusts look likely for the west half. Wind gusts to 40 mph likely all areas, at least briefly. That is just one aspect of this strong dynamic system. Snow/blowing snow is next issue as the cold air drives in behind the low. Expect rain to change to snow from west to east late Mon night. Heaviest snow will stay northwest of Upper Michigan but far west vcnty of Ironwood should start seeing accumulating snow 09z-12z Tue. Attn then turns to especially the Keweenaw later Tue into Tue night as lake enhanced snow develops with shortwave dropping through larger scale trough. Winds though diminishing compared to Tue morning should still be gusting over 40 mph on Tue aftn and over 30 mph Tue night. Soundings indicate eventually favorable lift occurring in the DGZ which will lead to lower water content/fluffy snow. Poor vsby/whiteout conditions will become increasing hazard Tue aftn into Tue evening across the Keweenaw. WSW-W winds will limit snow/blowing snow along rest of Lk Superior until winds veer NW late Tue night into Wed morning. Lake effect will stay in full swing along most of Lk Superior on Wed but lowering inversions blo 5kft and decreasing larger scale support in terms of lift and moisture will begin to take toll. Majority of lake convective layer within DGZ will continue to promote fluffy snow accumulations. Blowing snow, though not as harsh as occurs on Tue/Tue evening on Keweenaw, will still be a hazard in open areas near Lk Superior. Pattern remains locked in place late this week into next weekend thanks to Omega blocking over northern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska. Ridge will be over western Conus and eastern North America will be within deep troughing. Lake effect will continue to diminish late Wed as inversions lower further and winds become SW. Feasible that lake effect will ramp up again quickly just east of our forecast area into the eastern U.P. Attn late this week (Thu night into Fri) is on clipper system digging through in the mean trough. This would be the system that could bring snow to most of Upper Michigan and enhanced snow to areas near Lk Superior favored by NE-N winds, such as IWD and MQT. Beyond this system, NW flow lake effect will resume next weekend as upper troughing only shows signs of re-amplifying with even colder air late next weekend.
  2. 21 for a low with light fog at times. One last day of weather boredom. I have never experienced a more tranquil, tedious, pattern in the N lakes to end Nov and start Dec... so ready for something else. Last night I dreamed the patter change wasn't happening. This mornings look out back... still traces of snow, but while out and about, I don't really see much snow on the ground except in obscure shaded areas and small piles, of course. The potential for a half inch of rain and temps spiking to 48, will erase all that's left in my little corner. Ready to start fresh, and the anticipation for me is off the charts!
  3. I love Keweenaw County. One of my favorite areas is lake Medora and southward down towards Keweenaw Bay. I've also explored the tip in depth through the years. My area is pretty much the most rugged territory in Michigan. I think most people would be surprised how thick, isolated, and rocky the land is in the Huron's. Reading MQT's AFD looks like your west wind belt is going to cash in, at least initially.
  4. Yeah, Jonger... I average around 220-240", but not too many miles west of me I'd say 275", sometimes more. When I leave my house riding, once you get west and just north of the Silver Lake basin, it's usually deeper snow than at my house. Exploring the area, I have found snow belts inside snow belts inside a snow belt. It's really pretty spectacular to see, and the crazy thing is, it's a desolate area with zero reporting. The past three winters my location was over 200". The last winter with over 250" was 2013-14, and the last 300" winter was 2012-13
  5. I remember a lot of Madison Jackpots
  6. cmillzz has a lot of Alek's posting styles.
  7. He's here, I have no doubt.
  8. Alek?
  9. Use the + sign by the quote tab
  10. I've moved here for the weather! Not just snow, but the dynamic and extreme nature of the climate. Living along the peaks of a shoreline ridge, hugging a giant inland sea-like lake in the middle of the mid-west is quite a thrill, let me tell ya!
  11. I'm over the wind MQT: It's been pretty windy for some across our area this week! Here's a look at the highest wind gusts observed since this past Monday. While the highest gusts were seen on Monday, winds have been gusting over 40 mph across the Lake Superior shoreline for several days in a row. In fact, we've had gale warnings on Lake Superior for five consecutive days!
  12. Agree... just a starting point total until we see how things come together over the next few days. I think normal for my area in December is just north of 50" anyway.
  13. 12z gfs looks awesome for the entire sub to see a little snow which will be nice. I'm going out on an early limb and say 60-80" possible in December imby.
  14. I've always loved APX, their AFD's and the humor they insert. Even their social media presence is better than MQT. An office as a whole tho, MQT is great and the interactions I've had with them are always positive. Their HMT Jim Salzwedel has been to my house a couple times and help me set up my equipment and gave me 2 snow sticks as well. Most of the time their forecasts are spot on as well and they really know the local climate and lake effect, which is what counts imo.