2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[cptcatz]

Amazing agreement between GFS and Euro on today's 12z runs. 

[Floydbuster]

That setup is very dangerous for the SE US coast.

[yoda]

39 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Good grief. 384 hrs but still. Frances anyone?

It's probably going to turn north at that point looking at h5 with the break in the ridge... but yes it's in fantasy land

[MattPetrulli]

I don't really think it's appropriate to look at specifics over 240 hours besides the pattern and the fact a storm may/may not develop. Shouldn't get named storms comparisons at this stage at all, unless it's referring to a pattern analog. 

Besides that, something that has seemingly slipped under the radar (haha nice pun), GFS has been showing development in the GOM for the past 5ish runs, and has some ensemble support. Euro hasn't been showing anything, and CMC has been showing a little bit of development. Something to watch imo

[thunderbolt]

5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I don't really think it's appropriate to look at specifics over 240 hours besides the pattern and the fact a storm may/may not develop. Shouldn't get named storms comparisons at this stage at all, unless it's referring to a pattern analog. 

Besides that, something that has seemingly slipped under the radar (haha nice pun), GFS has been showing development in the GOM for the past 5ish runs, and has some ensemble support. Euro hasn't been showing anything, and CMC has been showing a little bit of development. Something to watch imo

The people commenting on a 240 GFS or euro for that matter are smart enough to realize it’s fantasy they’re just looking at what the model is showing

[GaWx]

 Based on the current and recent runs of models, it appears there will most likely be two MDR areas to focus on:

1. What's now in the E Atlantic, which the models have been suggesting for many days is now in the process of combining two packets of energy into one. This one may be moisture starved and thus has been shown to do little until getting pretty far west, at which time 5-6 GFS runs as well as a good number of GEFS members from many runs have shown it to later strengthen into a H and threaten the Caribbean, Bahamas, FL, and the Gulf. It appears to me that this one is the higher threat to the lower SE US/Gulf based on projected steering.

2. What's still in W Africa, which looks to develop further east and thus could ultimately get stronger and larger. This second area looks to me to possibly also threaten the US. However, if so, my educated guess is that that would be upper SC to NE vs FL/Gulf for the first one. 
 

 Things will change but that's how it looks to me as of now.

[NorthHillsWx]

I know it’s going to change, but long term average ACE for today’s date is around 20. We’re sitting at 2.8….

[ldub23]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Based on the current and recent runs of models, it appears there will most likely be two MDR areas to focus on:

1. What's now in the E Atlantic, which the models have been suggesting for many days is now in the process of combining two packets of energy into one. This one may be moisture starved and thus has been shown to do little until getting pretty far west, at which time 5-6 GFS runs as well as a good number of GEFS members from many runs have shown it to later strengthen into a H and threaten the Caribbean, Bahamas, FL, and the Gulf. It appears to me that this one is the higher threat to the lower SE US/Gulf based on projected steering.

2. What's still in W Africa, which looks to develop further east and thus could ultimately get stronger and larger. This second area looks to me to possibly also threaten the US. However, if so, my educated guess is that that would be upper SC to NE vs FL/Gulf for the first one. 
 

 Things will change but that's how it looks to me as of now.

2 into 1? Dont  look at the  18Z gfs then. I realize this  is  highly  unlikely to happen. Even in the  most active seasons you  dont see this.

 

 

A bit  later

 

 

2 potential major  hurricanes approaching the  US coast 600 miles apart  on the same day?

 

 

Call an ambulance for  JB!! I think he  just fainted.

[Windspeed]

[Normandy]

Yea that might break the the forums if that verified.

[cptcatz]

Lol at the dueling majors. Quiet season who?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

44 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

2 into 1? Dont  look at the  18Z gfs then. I realize this  is  highly  unlikely to happen. Even in the  most active seasons you  dont see this.

 

 

A bit  later

 

 

2 potential major  hurricanes approaching the  US coast 600 miles apart  on the same day?

 

 

Call an ambulance for  JB!! I think he  just fainted.

Super long range GFS is always right until it shows 2 hurricanes threatening the US

[Prismshine Productions]

Storm A pulling a Katrina and Storm B pulling a Hugo.. And looking at the h5 there is a strong ridge up top so that would be trouble

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[CheeselandSkies]

Weenie run for the ages right there. Been a while since one of those.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I know it’s going to change, but long term average ACE for today’s date is around 20. We’re sitting at 2.8….

 I've been guessing an active but nowhere near hyperactive ACE of 120 (most likely range ~110-135) for the full 2022 since late July. Despite it still being at only 2.8 as of 3 weeks later, I'm staying with active (120) for now based on recent days of modeling.

 Edit: I last guessed 3 NS this month and 6 NS next month. I'm not changing those either. Highest threat area of CONUS remains the Gulf coast of FL as per 8 ENSO analogs though that's not the only threat area.

[shaggy]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

2 into 1? Dont  look at the  18Z gfs then. I realize this  is  highly  unlikely to happen. Even in the  most active seasons you  dont see this.

 

 

A bit  later

 

 

2 potential major  hurricanes approaching the  US coast 600 miles apart  on the same day?

 

 

Call an ambulance for  JB!! I think he  just fainted.

1996. Eduardo and Fran comes to mine just a different orientation as Eduardo recurved first  and Fran hit

[WxWatcher007]

Reposting from my MA thread. 

First two years were great. Last year sucked. Time to get back on track and turn around my wrong streak so far this year.

   

 

WxWatcher007 2022 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast

I will start out my fourth annual forecast by saying I've been wrong a lot this season. The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has thrown wrenches that have blunted potential for active periods a few times already, putting a lid on any meaningful activity from the end of July into what is only now the start of the climatological peak. 

Each year on August 20, the late Dr. William Gray and his team would ring a bell, symbolizing the start of peak season. On this August 20, while we're starting to see the basin wake up, as of today, we still have not had a named storm in the basin since Colin. What does the August 20 - October 20 period hold? Here's my forecast. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 4

Over the past four seasons, I've done very well with my forecasts. I view being within +/- 1 as a success, with points off the greater the error. I believe I earned a B+ in 2019, A or A- in 2020, and a disappointing C in the 2021 forecast. 

At the start of this Atlantic season, I went with a prediction of 21/10/5 overall. The historical average is 14/7/3. With this peak season forecast I am bringing that overall prediction down. I see a total of 16/7/4 for the season, with ACE above normal but under 140.

Let's look at why. First, the favorable factors. 

1. ENSO
This is a third-year Nina, and that has mixed signals in the basin. As @GaWx has pointed out, third year Ninas, while a relatively smaller sample size, have had a clear signal of being quieter than their counterpart years. This Nina has not budged much, and it is expected to remain in place through the peak of the season. The most recent ONI value from the CPC is -0.9C, solidly into Nina territory. For the entirety of 2022, the ONI has been between -0.9C and -1.1C. 

Of course, every ENSO event is different, and intensity/location matters a lot. Given what I project (and I will admit I am not as good with the intensity/location stuff) and what I've seen so far, the fundamental atmospheric response in the Atlantic during the peak should reflect a "typical" Nina with reduced wind shear and enhanced convective activity as a result. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

2. West African Monsoon
No need to belabor this point. It still looks good and should be able to provide strong AEWs (African Easterly Waves) that despite the very quiet period have still rolled off Africa even before the traditional start of CV season. 

Note this is an absolute plot, not an anomaly. I'll get to the caveat here later in the post. 

3. Wind Shear
For the most part, shear hasn't been an issue in the basin, but there have been wave breaking periods where the tropical Atlantic (MDR) has seen sharp rises in shear.

As a result of a Nina entering peak, we usually see wind shear levels that are relatively low across the basin. I think that happens this year and we are seeing such on the long range ensemble guidance. 




With wave breaking, we've seen some pretty awfully timed TUTTs in the basin that have also helped to stifle activity, but as is usually the case, the peak of the season reduces this risk.

I think basin wide wind shear is unlikely to become a net negative for the peak, and the ensemble guidance has a wholesale pattern change that reduces shear in the tropical Atlantic as we approach September. I believe this is starting to be reflected in the operational guidance, which are attempting to kick off CV season with development. 

4. SST Anomalies/OHC
Another item on the favorable side of the ledger is the continued presence of warm SST anomalies in the tropical and western Atlantic, and high OHC in the Caribbean, Gulf, US Southeast Coast, and even out to the Antilles. 

Image above courtesy of Philip Klotzbach of CSU. 

We haven't really had issues with SSTs in recent years, and this year is no different. While we've seen some seesawing of temperatures in the Atlantic MDR, after a fairly modest rise, temps shouldn't be an issue. With a cooler subtropical region, we should have the orientation necessary for strong activity during the peak.

With western Atlantic SST anomalies and OHC, activity should continue through the peak and into October provided the seedlings are there. 

\

Here is a 90 day CRW animation of SSTs in the basin. 

5. CCKW/MJO
Finally, although we can't see very far, we do also have another factor making an active peak more likely. It looks like we are getting favorable passage of a CCKW and the MJO looks to be on the side of Atlantic activity for at least the early part of September. 

With all these favorable factors, however, why am I not more aggressive for the peak?

SAL & Stability
The greatest limiting factor for this season thus far has been dry air, and more importantly, the vast expanse of stability in the tropical Atlantic. I don't think this can be understated, and it continues to be a fly in the ointment in the tropical Atlantic.

To be clear, that doesn't mean we're going to get zero hurricanes and zero majors, but it means that there's serious potential that even with the presence of other favorable factors, a significant cap could be put on potential, especially in the MDR.

There has been some discussion on Twitter about these plots overselling the extent of stability in the basin, but even if these are off by half, it speaks to a major issue that's clearly not going to be easily overcome. 

This is really ugly. Some of the stability will almost certainly be mitigated by the climatological peak, AEWs making it further into the Atlantic and finding more favorable conditions in the western Atlantic/Caribbean, and more waves moistening the environment in the tropical Atlantic, but that's going to take time and strong AEWs off the development table as they become "sacrificial waves", thus reducing CV potential.  

This gif is my capture of images since 7/31, 7/31, 8/10, 8/15, 8/20 to be exact. The start of this period was when we saw a truly awful SAL outbreak across the Atlantic.

Things have gotten better--we now have corridors for waves that are low enough to develop in the MDR, but I don't think anyone can look at this and objectively say that dry air and stability is going to dramatically turn around in the near future.

In fact, even with the active WAM, the ensembles still show potential issues lurking in the eastern Atlantic into early September. What happens after? I think things continue to improve, but it may be slow. You don't need to have a super wet environment to be active, but given where the MDR is right now with stability, we need change to maximize potential. 

 

Overall
With each of these factors at play, I anticipate an active peak, with at least one named storm by the end of this month, an active September (especially early) and an active late September into the first 2/3 of October. I do think that the time it'll take to destabilize the eastern MDR will limit potential for high ACE, long track CV hurricanes, and for marginal waves to develop, but I also believe this will be mitigated by favorable conditions for hurricane development and perhaps a couple major hurricanes taking shape in the homebrew region of the western Atlantic and western Caribbean.  

Final Note--Landfall Odds
The past two years have seen extremely active landfall conditions for the US, especially in the Gulf. With higher activity comes a greater statistical chance of a US landfall, and I do believe we have a third consecutive year with a major hurricane landfall in the continental United States. If I had to take a stab in the dark, I'd place the eastern Gulf coast and Carolinas at the greatest risk in September and October, with one broader East Coast threat. 

We'll see what happens. Happy tracking. 

[Prismshine Productions]

I poked around a bit, the monster on the 18z GFS is a 5... 140kt barbs not far off the surface

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[SnoSki14]

18z GFS illustrates the concern that this year's storms won't develop much until they get west of 60W where it matters for us.

We could have 8 major hurricanes but if they all recurve well east of the US then would anyone regard that as an active season outside of the numbers. 

It's the home brews or delayed developers that matter. 

[Floydbuster]

1 hour ago, Sandstorm94 said:

I poked around a bit, the monster on the 18z GFS is a 5... 140kt barbs not far off the surface

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk
 

Yeah once you see those tight closed isobars on a long-range model, that likely indicates a much stronger storm. So if the hurricane into SE Florida is "964 mb" that could actually be something more like a Cat 3/4. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

La Nina's about to get a big s"lice" in it's central region(to warmer waters), may correlate with increased activity. 

[GaWx]

The 0Z GFS is a ldub special! It will give her/him something to complain about. 

[Normandy]

You ain't lying this run is strung out like a heroine addict

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, Normandy said:

You ain't lying this run is strung out like a heroine addict

I'd venture to bet that reality is somewhere between the 18Z and 0Z GFS.  Also, the 0Z GEFS not surprisingly suggests the 0Z GFS is an outlier.

[ldub23]

13 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Lol at the dueling majors. Quiet season who?

Everytime  i get  mocked the tropical Gods respond, lol. Im declaring  victory. The season isnt going to be  hyper active  or  even "active". Normal at  best at this  point. As far as the rest  of the season lets hope  we  can get  6 canes and  2 majors.

 

*Hopefully 06Z will be back to showing a few clumps of clouds at least. Even in dead seasons we used to get waves with showers. Yesterday i was skeptical because right after the  twin super canes the  models went  back to nothing and  bone dry air after the  2 canes.

 

*As far as the ensembles go the euro also shows  nothing and its  now very realistic we go 0/0/0 thru Aug.

 

*****2 important records within reach now. Tying the least active Aug and  longest  period  between named storms.

 

2 more tidbits  of  info.

A-This was supposed to be a  hyperactive season. Also lots  of  "homebrew" with rapid  intensification close to the  coast. We  have  had  2 PTC'S and neither  could even form a  closed  circ.

B-As pointed  out the  06Z shows  another  super cane. But  look behind  it. There  is  nothing  following  it, not  even a strong wave. At season peak with the  conditions apparently favorable enough for  a super cane to form nothing  else does? This tells  me 1 of  2 things. The  model is wrong and the  initial cane is yet another  phantom, or the  conditions  have changed and at  12Z the  model will be decidedly  more active.

[cptcatz]

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Everytime  i get  mocked the tropical Gods respond, lol. Im declaring  victory. The season isnt going to be  hyper active  or  even "active". Normal at  best at this  point. As far as the rest  of the season lets hope  we  can get  6 canes and  2 majors.

 

*Hopefully 06Z will be back to showing a few clumps of clouds at least. Even in dead seasons we used to get waves with showers. Yesterday i was skeptical because right after the  twin super canes the  models went  back to nothing and  bone dry air after the  2 canes.

 

*As far as the ensembles go the euro also shows  nothing and its  now very realistic we go 0/0/0 thru Aug.

 

*****2 important records within reach now. Tying the least active Aug and  longest  period  between named storms.

And then every time you declare victory, the GFS comes back to mock you once again, this time with the 06z bringing a major through the Lesser Antilles, direct hit onto Puerto Rico, then bringing the monster into the Gulf...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

And then every time you declare victory, the GFS comes back to mock you once again, this time with the 06z bringing a major through the Lesser Antilles, direct hit onto Puerto Rico, then bringing the monster into the Gulf...

I have a theory, I've had it for a while.  LDub really thinks they have an inverse power to 'make' storms.  My Dad would sometimes start watching a game in progress and the Giants would start giving up yards or going 3 and out, and he would leave.  A solid Roman Catholic man thought he had an inverse power over football.  A 'jinx'.  It is silly, of course, to believe it, LDub is trying to will a cyclone into existence by proclaiming season over. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Reposting from my MA thread. 

First two years were great. Last year sucked. Time to get back on track and turn around my wrong streak so far this year.

   

 

WxWatcher007 2022 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast

I will start out my fourth annual forecast by saying I've been wrong a lot this season. The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has thrown wrenches that have blunted potential for active periods a few times already, putting a lid on any meaningful activity from the end of July into what is only now the start of the climatological peak. 

Each year on August 20, the late Dr. William Gray and his team would ring a bell, symbolizing the start of peak season. On this August 20, while we're starting to see the basin wake up, as of today, we still have not had a named storm in the basin since Colin. What does the August 20 - October 20 period hold? Here's my forecast. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 4

Over the past four seasons, I've done very well with my forecasts. I view being within +/- 1 as a success, with points off the greater the error. I believe I earned a B+ in 2019, A or A- in 2020, and a disappointing C in the 2021 forecast. 

At the start of this Atlantic season, I went with a prediction of 21/10/5 overall. The historical average is 14/7/3. With this peak season forecast I am bringing that overall prediction down. I see a total of 16/7/4 for the season, with ACE above normal but under 140.

Let's look at why. First, the favorable factors. 

1. ENSO
This is a third-year Nina, and that has mixed signals in the basin. As @GaWx has pointed out, third year Ninas, while a relatively smaller sample size, have had a clear signal of being quieter than their counterpart years. This Nina has not budged much, and it is expected to remain in place through the peak of the season. The most recent ONI value from the CPC is -0.9C, solidly into Nina territory. For the entirety of 2022, the ONI has been between -0.9C and -1.1C. 

Of course, every ENSO event is different, and intensity/location matters a lot. Given what I project (and I will admit I am not as good with the intensity/location stuff) and what I've seen so far, the fundamental atmospheric response in the Atlantic during the peak should reflect a "typical" Nina with reduced wind shear and enhanced convective activity as a result. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

2. West African Monsoon
No need to belabor this point. It still looks good and should be able to provide strong AEWs (African Easterly Waves) that despite the very quiet period have still rolled off Africa even before the traditional start of CV season. 

Note this is an absolute plot, not an anomaly. I'll get to the caveat here later in the post. 

3. Wind Shear
For the most part, shear hasn't been an issue in the basin, but there have been wave breaking periods where the tropical Atlantic (MDR) has seen sharp rises in shear.

As a result of a Nina entering peak, we usually see wind shear levels that are relatively low across the basin. I think that happens this year and we are seeing such on the long range ensemble guidance. 




With wave breaking, we've seen some pretty awfully timed TUTTs in the basin that have also helped to stifle activity, but as is usually the case, the peak of the season reduces this risk.

I think basin wide wind shear is unlikely to become a net negative for the peak, and the ensemble guidance has a wholesale pattern change that reduces shear in the tropical Atlantic as we approach September. I believe this is starting to be reflected in the operational guidance, which are attempting to kick off CV season with development. 

4. SST Anomalies/OHC
Another item on the favorable side of the ledger is the continued presence of warm SST anomalies in the tropical and western Atlantic, and high OHC in the Caribbean, Gulf, US Southeast Coast, and even out to the Antilles. 

Image above courtesy of Philip Klotzbach of CSU. 

We haven't really had issues with SSTs in recent years, and this year is no different. While we've seen some seesawing of temperatures in the Atlantic MDR, after a fairly modest rise, temps shouldn't be an issue. With a cooler subtropical region, we should have the orientation necessary for strong activity during the peak.

With western Atlantic SST anomalies and OHC, activity should continue through the peak and into October provided the seedlings are there. 

\

Here is a 90 day CRW animation of SSTs in the basin. 

5. CCKW/MJO
Finally, although we can't see very far, we do also have another factor making an active peak more likely. It looks like we are getting favorable passage of a CCKW and the MJO looks to be on the side of Atlantic activity for at least the early part of September. 

With all these favorable factors, however, why am I not more aggressive for the peak?

SAL & Stability
The greatest limiting factor for this season thus far has been dry air, and more importantly, the vast expanse of stability in the tropical Atlantic. I don't think this can be understated, and it continues to be a fly in the ointment in the tropical Atlantic.

To be clear, that doesn't mean we're going to get zero hurricanes and zero majors, but it means that there's serious potential that even with the presence of other favorable factors, a significant cap could be put on potential, especially in the MDR.

There has been some discussion on Twitter about these plots overselling the extent of stability in the basin, but even if these are off by half, it speaks to a major issue that's clearly not going to be easily overcome. 

This is really ugly. Some of the stability will almost certainly be mitigated by the climatological peak, AEWs making it further into the Atlantic and finding more favorable conditions in the western Atlantic/Caribbean, and more waves moistening the environment in the tropical Atlantic, but that's going to take time and strong AEWs off the development table as they become "sacrificial waves", thus reducing CV potential.  

This gif is my capture of images since 7/31, 7/31, 8/10, 8/15, 8/20 to be exact. The start of this period was when we saw a truly awful SAL outbreak across the Atlantic.

Things have gotten better--we now have corridors for waves that are low enough to develop in the MDR, but I don't think anyone can look at this and objectively say that dry air and stability is going to dramatically turn around in the near future.

In fact, even with the active WAM, the ensembles still show potential issues lurking in the eastern Atlantic into early September. What happens after? I think things continue to improve, but it may be slow. You don't need to have a super wet environment to be active, but given where the MDR is right now with stability, we need change to maximize potential. 

 

Overall
With each of these factors at play, I anticipate an active peak, with at least one named storm by the end of this month, an active September (especially early) and an active late September into the first 2/3 of October. I do think that the time it'll take to destabilize the eastern MDR will limit potential for high ACE, long track CV hurricanes, and for marginal waves to develop, but I also believe this will be mitigated by favorable conditions for hurricane development and perhaps a couple major hurricanes taking shape in the homebrew region of the western Atlantic and western Caribbean.  

Final Note--Landfall Odds
The past two years have seen extremely active landfall conditions for the US, especially in the Gulf. With higher activity comes a greater statistical chance of a US landfall, and I do believe we have a third consecutive year with a major hurricane landfall in the continental United States. If I had to take a stab in the dark, I'd place the eastern Gulf coast and Carolinas at the greatest risk in September and October, with one broader East Coast threat. 

We'll see what happens. Happy tracking. 

Great post.

[Torch Tiger]

12z gfs for Antilles. Interesting 1988 has been popping up as an analog year, Gilbert/Hugo both roughly tracked through that area.

[tiger_deF]

I'm definitely concerned that every time the development time frame for a system has pushed below 100 hours, the models have dropped it. Happened to the wave before the one at 25W, happening to the current wave, and may happen to the one behind it.

 

Still very dry out there, and every wave coming off of Africa has been stripped of convection by 35-40W. If this doesn't change soon we could see a season bust of epic proportions.