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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

6z Euro is largely the same, but over the last few runs it has incrementally shifted eastward, focusing the heavier snow in the immediate coastal areas.

psu fringe alert for my yard lol.

Just go on a bit of a tantrum / panic about being fringed, and you’ll wind up with a foot. It’s worked for PSU in the past. Lol :weight_lift:

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25 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Wow TT is going to have the 06z and 18z euro too, all the euro stuff is just going to come in one hour later. 

Just a shame they waited until the Euro went from king to useless.

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I don't know why people keep saying they don't know what's going to happen or the models are terrible. You are going to get what you get from a Miller B in a La Nina and models have consistently showed that. If you are west of the bay, you will have the back edge of light snow either over you or just to your east. If you are right along the coast, you will either get a big snowstorm or the big totals will be just out over the ocean and you will get some decent snow. The models have shifted like 50 miles either way for days now. They've done a good job showing you what will generally happen.

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37 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Pulling for you to see a good event.  Such a complicated setup but hopefully the goalposts narrow today.

Thanks. I am keeping my expectations on the lower end, something like 3-5". Hard to just completely discount one of the top 2 globals, and the Euro has been suggesting the best lift may not make it this far NW the last couple runs. With the track of the low so far offshore, and cold/dry Arctic air feeding in, some dry air is going to work in on the NW side and I think that will keep the snow here more in the light to moderate category with the heavy stuff further SE.

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:
40 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
This is crazy complex, evidently. Never seen models change so much based on nearly imperceptible changes at h5.
Ill stick to what I said earlier. It may be tonight before we know. Heck it might be tomorrow morning. Lol

We've known for days. How did the rectal checkup go?

Good. How’d your lobotomy go?

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13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z Euro is largely the same, but over the last few runs it has incrementally shifted eastward, focusing the heavier snow in the immediate coastal areas.

psu fringe alert for my yard lol.

I was trying to estimate your location in relationship to the precipitation banding isn't your location close to the bands between .31 and . 41 on the 6z Euro ? If so you thinking 3 maybe for you ? up my way I am in the same banding but have little expectations.

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9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Why do the gods of precip hate Winchester so much? Lol

Said this a couple days ago.  I hope every low from now on goes straight up the OH valley.  So sick of being fringed out by these coastals.  Everyone of these has fringed us since 2016.

Give me a WAA thump followed by light drizzle, dry slot, then cold front.

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

I was trying to estimate your location in relationship to the precipitation banding isn't your location close to the bands between .31 and . 41 on the 6z Euro ? If so you thinking 3 maybe for you ? up my way I am in the same banding but have little expectations.

I am just NW of the 0.5" line on the 6z run.

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Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Said this a couple days ago.  I hope every low from now on goes straight up the OH valley.  So sick of being fringed out by these coastals.  Everyone of these has fringed us since 2016.

Give me a WAA thump followed by light drizzle, dry slot, then cold front.

really moved toward a nothing burger without cheese and bun at my house too.  looking at the euro I might not see anything because this time I am too far west...go figure.   MBY has been a lot of things but too far west is relatively new one.  

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15 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I don't know why people keep saying they don't know what's going to happen or the models are terrible. You are going to get what you get from a Miller B in a La Nina and models have consistently showed that. If you are west of the bay, you will have the back edge of light snow either over you or just to your east. If you are right along the coast, you will either get a big snowstorm or the big totals will be just out over the ocean and you will get some decent snow. The models have shifted like 50 miles either way for days now. They've done a good job showing you what will generally happen.

This seems like you’re contradicting  yourself in this post.  50 miles for ppl like @CAPE and our southern MD and eastern shore folks means quite a bit.  I don’t see any issues with ppl watching models and hoping for some better runs to the corridor. .5 qpf on the euro is like 50-60 miles east of 95. 

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15 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I don't know why people keep saying they don't know what's going to happen or the models are terrible. You are going to get what you get from a Miller B in a La Nina and models have consistently showed that. If you are west of the bay, you will have the back edge of light snow either over you or just to your east. If you are right along the coast, you will either get a big snowstorm or the big totals will be just out over the ocean and you will get some decent snow. The models have shifted like 50 miles either way for days now. They've done a good job showing you what will generally happen.

We don’t know. For me the range is nothing to perhaps as much as 3-4. That’s not knowing.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We don’t know. For me the range is nothing to perhaps as much as 3-4. That’s not knowing.

Yeah, a low is going to be out there, that is about all i'm on board with. Guidance has shifted from perhaps 1" to over 12+" in my backyard the last few days. Just waiting for tomorrow evening to get here so I can gaze at a radar and out of my window.

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55 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Wouldn’t be the first time we saw big changes inside 48 hours this winter. January 3rd looked fairly lost until 48hr out. The storm after that looked good for us pretty much all week long, went way west in the final 48hr and still ended up tracking west of what was progged hours before the storm hit. This storm could also end up even worse than what’s being modeled (energy’s left behind, late / weak phase, etc)

Def. not expecting some magical massive shift that gives us all a foot, but I also wont completely rule out a 3-6” storm along 95 either given the clear lack of consensus among models in such a complex setup.  Long shot or not. 

Feeling the potential of big changes today. Lol I don’t give up until it’s over!

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

We don’t know. For me the range is nothing to perhaps as much as 3-4. That’s not knowing.

Everyone should read the disco I posted earlier.

Folks along and even NW of I-95 should be pretty interested in the next few model cycles, in addition to those of us further east. A few inches in those locations is still a possibility, maybe more if a 0z CMC like solution ends up more correct.

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2 hours ago, Ji said:
2 hours ago, Interstate said:
Even better is they got H5 data too. Still not as robust as PW though. I just wish PW had the previous model run arrows. That is the best thing about TT. 

Oh wow...dang. didn't realize that. Goodbye pivotal

EURO is now free since it is a clearance model.

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As we try to sort through all of the disagreement between the models, one thing that stands out to me is how much the GFS and NAM Nest agree on the precip field.   I have no idea how this is going to play out, when the NAM and GFS disagree, but the NAM Nest is close to the GFS, I take notice.

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