Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[TalcottWx]

3 feet accumulated on the seals belly at monomy 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s like it’s trying to avoid New England.

Jesus that’s ugly

[ORH_wxman]

Goes nuclear at 21-24 hours.

[JC-CT]

It's still a pretty darn good snowstorm for the region, in the big scheme of things. Just that we know it won't have maximized its potential.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Silly question- from seeing weak and sheared tropical systems where the center absolutely chases the convection, with some runs suggesting a warm core and a warmer than normal Atlantic off the NE, maybe surface lows chasing convection out towards the Gulf stream might make some sense.  Does that make sense?

[TalcottWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

So freaking bizarre. I mean when you look at this you would think big snows well west into CT

If mid levels look like that-I remain bullish. Meteorology not modelogy. 

Weenieology too

[DomNH]

WTF is this evolution.

[CoastalWx]

Late comeback. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

There it is, it figured it out. Completely resets the low at hour 24.

if that keeps trending earlier, it could maybe be a good thing. hard to say

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

There it is, it figured it out.

Not bad

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

So freaking bizarre. I mean when you look at this you would think big snows well west into CT

Wow that looks much better than surface projection

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, DomNH said:

WTF is this evolution.

Just go with it...it snows

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just go with it...it snows

That's what I'm leaning towards.

[weathafella]

Pounding!

[CT Rain]

Random thought this afternoon... but I think Long Island could be the jackpot here. 

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Goes nuclear at 21-24 hours.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not bad

Took a weird route but it got there eventually.  This is a crushing.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Random thought this afternoon... but I think Long Island could be the jackpot here. 

I could see that. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

[wxsniss]

Yep captures then stalls east of Cape... I think surface looks same or slightly better than 12z

[TalcottWx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Random thought this afternoon... but I think Long Island could be the jackpot here. 

I disagree it's too far from my by

[mostman]

Lol  - what is it doing? Leaning back into the Cape now. 

[weathafella]

[George001]

LETS ****ING GO!!!! NAVY ON BOARD!!!! No dual low on the navy and it deepens the low to 972 mb, this is a huge red flag and should not be ignored. The Navy gets a lot of shit, but it’s a useful model even if it’s verification scores aren’t the highest. The way I use the Navy is I don’t just look at it and assume it’s 100% right, because it usually isn’t (I have made this mistake before early on, but after a few horrible busts I learned my lesson). My rule of thumb with the Navy is that if it is farther west than other guidance, I throw all guidance east of the Navy out the window. I  first heard of this rule a couple years ago back when I was still an anonymous lurker, and it seems to work well for the most part. When incorporating the Navy into my  forecasts, I blend it with other guidance that is farther west, so for me I’m blending it with the 6z Euro (12z thrown out the window because it’s weaker and east of the Navy), 12z Nam, 12z Canadian, and a give a bit of weight to the short range RAP and SREFS. Since the Navy is so far west, I see that as a huge red flag and am giving more weight to the western guidance like the (high res) Nam, Srefs, and 6z Euro. Am I being a weenie? Maybe a little bit, but the Navy jumped west for the mid Jan inland runner like 3-4 days out, and once that happened I adjusted my forecast and gave up hope for anything more than a couple inches before a changeover to rain in my area. 

[Greg]

Unreal!

[ORH_wxman]

That might actually be a better solution than 12z...esp for the deformation tomorrow midday/afternoon.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I would say the end result should be better than 12z

[DomNH]

Oh for sure that run slaps. It's just odd how it gets there lol.

[mostman]

Different than 12z, that’s for sure. 

[George001]

And just as I make a big post about the 12z Navy, the Nam comes west again. I like the way things are going.