Hoth Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I can’t wait for mesos to come into range. There are gonna be some seriously zonked runs in the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: WILLLBURRRR Winds collapse his barn? Drifts 10 feet plus. Oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 34 minutes ago, dryslot said: Next LOL at that 983 off Newfoundland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This one? Thanks. I still giggle like a five year old whenever I see this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Thanks. I still giggle like a five year old whenever I see this lol You would have really liked some of Sam Lillo's maps if you liked this one, Lets just say there was some engorged areas............ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Wasn't Jan 2015 a "miller A"? A "miller C" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, WeatherHappens said: A "miller C" Miller Be Quiet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 18z NAM continues to move our main energy in faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wilbur? Wilbur isn't horse, he's my dog! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree. When I disputed your point the other day, all I meant was that guidance would over correct in that direction, before ultimately coming back and closing later...however, I fully expected some of these runs to close it off very quickly, and the most likely candidate is always the EURO in my experience. I absolutely agree that the EURO is too fast and far SW with closing off as it stands now. but I just don't want it to trend too much before correcting. But you are right....that is probably not off of the table. The CF I feel is...I understand why some don't want it discussed yet, blah , blah, but its my opinion. Agree... At this point, I'm locked in mentally for a big regional event with all the normal caveats. From this point on, want to enjoy the forecasting process; fine tune the snowfall prediction, update my predicted impacts for all of my clients across the Northeast based on my take of the 700 mb intensity & track trends; 850 inflow, etc... The coupled jet structure at 300 mb is a classic big deepener signal. Given the lack of big / widespread events this year, I'm want the next 2 or 3 days be a relaxed run-up to a big event so when we get to Friday, I can just step back and watch it unfold. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Winds collapse his barn? Drifts 10 feet plus. Oh boy @CT Rain station needs to camp out on Ekonk hill by you or on Rt 171 near Woodstock Fair for some great drifting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Miller Be Quiet Miller No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 41 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Enough of the Miller A vs B discussion. It's useless. Just like the ICON. Edit: Not yelling at Will. It's just the post I found. I think what started the obsessing was that a post was made a while ago … I think during the lead up to the last event, where a correlation was advanced describing Miller Bs as being better snow producers … So of course naturally that means comfort seeking armpit sniffing frantically making sure it’s mor B than A … 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 NAM continues to look way better @ 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Fifth … 1978 isn’t really good total meteorological analog ? when did that come up and why/how? It came up either just prior to the Euro run or very shortly thereafter; 40/70 shut it down pretty quick. Whenever modeling slows a slowing down of an East Coast winter storm, the 78 analog is brought up. But, as mentioned by others, synoptically is not even close. 78 had a full capture, stall and loop. It also had a classic banana high at the surfaces stretching from western NY on across southern Canada out into the Atlantic north of the storm. This has nothing of the sort; high pressure is retreating to its northeast, but no wrapping back of the high on across southern Canada; at least not enough to be noteworthy. This will be an attempt at a capture, but in the end, it will only be able to slow its forward motion; probably not get it to fully stall. I would expect this system will always have some forward motion component, even it crawls for a period of time, as it gets tugged a bit north and northwest. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Something to keep in mind as well as far as haves and have nots are concerned. It’s not like someone is going to get 20” and someone else 3”. It’s probably more like 25 vs 15 or 18” or something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Nice overrrunning snows @72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I just wanted to catch up and went through the last many pages to get some Met or semi pro thoughts. With so much being posted in this thread that is not really storm related or "weenie" posts maybe a new post could be made for just the serious analysis of what could be a historic storm. I am not sure how it could be monitored but just a thought? 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said: NAM continues to look way better @ 54 Holding back way less energy than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Something to keep in mind as well as far as haves and have nots are concerned. It’s not like someone is going to get 20” and someone else 3”. It’s probably more like 25 vs 15 or 18” or something From your lips to WOR's hips. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 18z Nam looks like it would have been good just based off of hr 84 H5 map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: From your lips to WOR's hips. As long as her hips don't lie, I'm good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msg112469 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 50 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said: this is looking just like the storm on Jan 15 1897.....that storm was amazing....anyone else remember that one? Yes. A good one. I remember it well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Look at where the isobars are pointing. Dat shnizz would head NNE to ACK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, FXWX said: It came up either just prior to the Euro run or very shortly thereafter; 40/70 shut it down pretty quick. Whenever modeling slows a slowing down of an East Coast winter storm, the 78 analog is brought up. But, as mentioned by others, synoptically is not even close. 78 had a full capture, stall and loop. It also had a classic banana high at the surfaces stretching from western NY on across southern Canada out into the Atlantic north of the storm. This has nothing of the sort; high pressure is retreating to its northeast, but no wrapping back of the high on across southern Canada; at least not enough to be noteworthy. This will be an attempt at a capture, but in the end, it will only be able to slow its forward motion; probably not get it to fully stall. I would expect this system will always have some forward motion component, even it crawls for a period of time, as it gets tugged a bit north and northwest. Another excellent post from you...spot on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: From your lips to WOR's hips. If people are solely chasing a jackpot in any storm, chances are you will be disappointed. I just think in a storm like this, as modeled, it’s a major event for all. also, good luck pinning down where the mega band will set up. See, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Something to keep in mind as well as far as haves and have nots are concerned. It’s not like someone is going to get 20” and someone else 3”. It’s probably more like 25 vs 15 or 18” or something True. But it will feel like 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Something to keep in mind as well as far as haves and have nots are concerned. It’s not like someone is going to get 20” and someone else 3”. It’s probably more like 25 vs 15 or 18” or something I think you and I both would be disappointed with 15" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z Nam looks like it would have been good just based off of hr 84 H5 map. Yeah prob a little bit east of a Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: 18z Nam looks like it would have been good just based off of hr 84 H5 map. SLP dropped 15mb from 18z Fri to 06z Sat . Bombo going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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