Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CT Valley Dryslot]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

is that the guy who started the nyc weenie board?

Yeah.

I got perma-banned from it last year for seemingly no reason.

Edit: checked, still banned.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Maybe buy a bulk pack of wipeys. More secretions on deck.

Plenty of wipes here with 2 toddlers but it still wasn’t enough. Reaching for the bleach now…

[mahk_webstah]

23 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The Euro has pretty much all of SNE with 925mb winds greater than 75 kts Saturday afternoon. 925s what...1500 ft up?

that is just when my flight is supposed to land.  Oy.  The earlier closing off didn't seem to slow it down

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fifth  … 1978 isn’t really good total meteorological analog ?

when did that come up and why/how?

I tried to explain this to a few, but Kev just mocked me. 

Have at it.

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Yeah.

I got perma-banned from it last year for seemingly no reason.

ha, nice. yeah I poked around the first year or so but the guy is very angry. I popped in like 2 or 3 days ago to see what the mood was there and they were all ready to jump off a bridge.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I tried to explain this to a few, but Kev just mocked me. 

Have at it.

'78 was a totally different evolution....the impact could maybe be similar in a couple spots if this one is bad enough....but yeah, no reason to really break it out at this point.

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

I will never buy a stalling low or a slow moving storm in this era of quick hitters. I just hope the track remains favorable. 

Its the mechanics and evolution of this type of storm that can possibly cause a several hour stall/slow down. No, its not a given however we aren't in a particularly fast flow right now 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

'78 was a totally different evolution....the impact could maybe be similar in a couple spots if this one is bad enough....but yeah, no reason to really break it out at this point.

what would be a good h5 analog?

[NorEastermass128]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nah. We go back further.

I’m a late ‘90s kid. You early ‘90s. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

'78 was a totally different evolution....the impact could maybe be similar in a couple spots if this one is bad enough....but yeah, no reason to really break it out at this point.

There isn't strong enough consensus yet for that type of stall or placement.

[Ginx snewx]

39 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm leaning towards selling 19:1 ratios with 30-50 mph winds a few hundred meters off the deck.

19 to 1? This is typical same as Jan 11 15. Moosup data

[CT Valley Dryslot]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

what would be a good h5 analog?

CIPS says its January 15-17, 2005. Based off 12z GFS.

[forkyfork]

7 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

I will never buy a stalling low or a slow moving storm in this era of quick hitters. I just hope the track remains favorable. 

it's going to stall and loop as the system occludes. could be east of nj or east of maine

[Go Kart Mozart]

Someone show us the members...ensemble that is.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

JMA:

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

19 to 1? This is typical same as Jan 11 15. Moosup data

well I took that willimantic 24" and since it is right on the 1.25/1 cutoff line, I used 1.25 qpf. 19:1, what did I screw up?

[jbenedet]

I'm guessing that sea eagle will be leaving it's new pad in boothbay Hahbah.

 

Kinda pissed I missed the chance to head up there.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, JC-CT said:

what would be a good h5 analog?

Jan 2015 is still the closest IMHO but it deepens the trough a bit more in the southeast....it's almost a cross between that one and boxing day 2010. The larger scale trough/ridge positions are very close to Jan 2015 but the ULL itself is a little deeper down south sort of like Boxing day was....but not as deep as Boxing day, which is why I say it's kind of a hybrid between the two.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

February 11-13, 2006 and January 25-27, 2011 also score high on CIPS.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

CIPS says its January 15-17, 2005. Based off 12z GFS.

which was what? The Jan 2005 blizzard was a week after that

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

well I took that willimantic 24" and since it is right on the 1.25/1 cutoff line, I used 1.25 qpf. 19:1, what did I screw up?

I think Ginxy is using Cobb there.

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 2015 is still the closest IMHO but it deepens the trough a bit more in the southeast....it's almost a cross between that one and boxing day 2010. The larger scale trough/ridge positions are very close to Jan 2015 but the ULL itself is a little deeper down south sort of like Boxing day was....but not as deep as Boxing day, which is why I say it's kind of a hybrid between the two.

i do see boxing day showing up on cips repeatedly

[brooklynwx99]

textbook

[Ginx snewx]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Storm is a winner when a screw zone nets 20"

Runaway says sell like Kooch. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

JMA has lead the way for many days, never wavering. Bow to him...

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

These runs all look good here. I was totally whiffed by the 06z gfs. I want to avoid that. Not expecting 2 feet here. 

All we ask for is a participation trophy.

I’d take 3-6” and run. 12z EURO was the best, others get crushed but if we could snag 6-10” of mid-level goodies then that’s awesome.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

which was what? The Jan 2005 blizzard was a week after that

That was a grazer for eastern areas....funny, we narrowly missed a biggie there and I remember being kind of pissed, but then a week later we got payback.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I tried to explain this to a few, but Kev just mocked me. 

Have at it.

Mocked? I think it’s got some similarities. No more no less. You just start calling people dumb and clueless when they express other thoughts than the box you have yours in 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, JC-CT said:

which was what? The Jan 2005 blizzard was a week after that

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2005/us0115.php

Start there and toggle thru the next 2 days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Couple of things... The other day I suggested there would be a stalling / capture earlier than modeled.  I now think the Euro is too fast with it and would expect it to be northeast of what it is now showing.  Secondly, I agree that comparisons to 78 need to be tempered; not flushed but tempered a bit, especially as it relates to the point of capture / stall.  Third, trying to get very specific about locations of CF, deformation band(s) and related screw zones (relatively speaking) needs to be put on the back burner for a bit until 700 circulation center becomes locked in for a couple of cycles.  Lastly, modeled inflow is so intense, I will almost always kick deformation / fronto zones a bit west of modeling.

I agree. When I disputed your point the other day, all I meant was that guidance would over correct in that direction, before ultimately coming back and closing later...however, I fully expected some of these runs to close it off very quickly, and the most likely candidate is always the EURO in my experience.

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is the only one closing this off with rapid H5 deepening that early and southwest...I don't think #2 is off the table whatsoever.

I absolutely agree that the EURO is too fast and far SW with closing off as it stands now. but I just don't want it to trend too much before correcting. But you are right....that  is probably not off of the table. The CF I feel is...I understand why some don't want it discussed yet, blah , blah, but its my opinion.