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Thursday AM Jan 20 Anafront snow threat.


Sey-Mour Snow
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15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

what do you consider a flash freeze with snow falling? Like 10 degrees plus in an hour?

I’m not sure of the actual definition, but when I look at the model temps, that doesn’t strike me as a flash freeze? 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not sure of the actual definition, but when I look at the model temps, that doesn’t strike me as a flash freeze? 

I was commuting to Bolton Ma early 2000s and we had a squall with flash freeze; I literally got off 495 ramp onto 117 and could hear the cars crashing above. Not fun. 495 was shutdown all morning 

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Just now, Modfan2 said:

I was commuting to Bolton Ma early 2000s and we had a squall with flash freeze; I literally got off 495 ramp onto 117 and could hear the cars crashing above. Not fun. 495 was shutdown all morning 

Yeah those are rapid temps drops. I’m not saying it won’t be slippery, but when I think flash freeze, I don’t see this as one. 

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Just now, FXWX said:

Yep... I've called it a mini flash freeze; not a dramatic one for sure, but just enough to cause issues, especially with ground temps right under road surfaces running very cold.

That’s possible for sure. Especially inland. 

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25 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

what do you consider a flash freeze with snow falling? Like 10 degrees plus in an hour?

Has little to do with air temp. Cold subsurface road temps. Falling snow falls on untreated roads initially melts then evaporative cooling reduces surface temp and it freezes as more snow falls. Cars compress it to ice. What could be worse is roads treated a tenth of rain falls washing off treatment then heavier snow falls. I see a mess coming up in areas that get initial rain. And yes the temps drop all day which will flash freeze and puddles and eventually drop low enough to negate salt treatment 

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5 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I was commuting to Bolton Ma early 2000s and we had a squall with flash freeze; I literally got off 495 ramp onto 117 and could hear the cars crashing above. Not fun. 495 was shutdown all morning 

It's all about timing and not being on the ball with any treatment.

My favorite was 2/8/17. Not a flash freeze but CAD which I think was discussed but didn't even show up on the mesos. And then it would have been fine except a light rain shower passed through (aircraft were reporting 25 at KBOS and 56 a few thousand feet up) and put down 0.1" of ice on everything right before morning rush hour and the results were about as expected up to and including a 55-car pileup on 128.

Basically this + this = chaos, when the first this was 5 or 10 degrees colder than modeled. Just an epic, epic bust. And worse, ZR the morning before had been forecast but benign, not that this was forecast until this forum (your's truly included) went out and tried to run in the morning.

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