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Thursday AM Jan 20 Anafront snow threat.


Sey-Mour Snow
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Guidance converging on a 1-3 maybe 2-4" type deal Thursday AM for southern areas of SNE.  Timing looks like 1-11am from west to east.  However, surface temps look borderline to start, with temperatures 35-40 late Wednesday evening, this is likely to be a wet snow at first before temps really drop.  Let's see how things trend today, 6z Euro finally getting on board for something light, while GFS and NAM are the most aggressive. 

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8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Guidance converging on a 1-3 maybe 2-4" type deal Thursday AM for southern areas of SNE.  Timing looks like 1-11am from west to east.  However, surface temps look borderline to start, with temperatures 35-40 late Wednesday evening, this is likely to be a wet snow at first before temps really drop.  Let's see how things trend today, 6z Euro finally getting on board for something light, while GFS and NAM are the most aggressive. 

Sometimes these keep bumping up amounts as you get closer in and increase baroclinic zone. These are fun events to track 

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I'm not entirely sure we see much accumulation from this but there continues to be a pretty good signal for a narrow zone of enhanced convergence right along the front. Some different signals though how quickly the system moves through. Could have best enhancement along the coastal plain 

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM def coming in more amped. I'd want to see Euro get on board though before actually taking it seriously. The more amped this one is, the less likely 1/22 is IMHO.

I disagree and so does the Nam which is clearly shifting to the Euro by 78-84hrs. 

Plenty of higher heights offshore to keep the 22nd in play. 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I disagree and so does the Nam which is clearly shifting to the Euro by 78-84hrs. 

Plenty of higher heights offshore to keep the 22nd in play. 

It is not the only factor....we can definitely get both events, but all else equal, we'd rather not have this one. There are other factors this run that are helping out 1/22 that are independent of the frontal wave.

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Actually...I could envision a 2-4'' deal from southern CT through RI and into SE MA tomorrow night. That's some pretty impressive llvl lift along a narrow corridor. Ratios may start a little poopy but should improve relatively quickly. 

This will get snow north of I-90 with these bumps 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Actually...I could envision a 2-4'' deal from southern CT through RI and into SE MA tomorrow night. That's some pretty impressive llvl lift along a narrow corridor. Ratios may start a little poopy but should improve relatively quickly. 

If everything goes right, yeah

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This will get snow north of I-90 with these bumps 

We'll see widespread light snow over a large area but the best chance for any accumulations IMO is going to be within a very tight and narrow corridor where llvl convergence is maximized. 

Just now, JC-CT said:

If everything goes right, yeah

seems to be heading in that direction. And for the front as a whole...even moving across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley's this is looking a bit juicer for them. Often times it's a race between dry air and precip cutting off but there's a quite a bit of moisture on the backside of this front. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

We'll see widespread light snow over a large area but the best chance for any accumulations IMO is going to be within a very tight and narrow corridor where llvl convergence is maximized. 

seems to be heading in that direction. And for the front as a whole...even moving across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley's this is looking a bit juicer for them. Often times it's a race between dry air and precip cutting off but there's a quite a bit of moisture on the backside of this front. 

yeah, but just as you said, juice/track aside it's still a quick hitter. But weirder things have happened, if you get some meso stuff happening along the front?

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