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18 this morning, western inland edge of Toms River. I’ve noticed this January on the colder nights we’ve been running a good bit colder than the “official” temp for TR, not necessarily last night but in general. Probably because I’m more inland and further away from the coast than the station. 
 

It is nice to be just far enough from the coast to reduce the amount of coastal mixing that sometimes happens, yet close enough to retain the benefits of strong coastal banding. 
 

Only thing I like living down here vs up north with most of you. 

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2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

18 this morning, western inland edge of Toms River. I’ve noticed this January on the colder nights we’ve been running a good bit colder than the “official” temp for TR, not necessarily last night but in general. Probably because I’m more inland and further away from the coast than the station. 
 

It is nice to be just far enough from the coast to reduce the amount of coastal mixing that sometimes happens, yet close enough to retain the benefits of strong coastal banding. 
 

Only thing I like living down here vs up north with most of you. 

My friend lives right off exit 82 and noticed the same thing. I’ve seen it even up to 10 degrees colder in west TR

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4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The CANSIPS is also a massive torch like the weeklies. This is about as strong a pattern signal as you will see: 

 

 

 

 

Great it weakens towards spring to ruin that weather too. Who wants 50s in February and April.

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

In the meantime, MEX MOS is a little weak on the intensity of the cold NYC, already at least 2F too warm NYC and may be in error by 4F by 8A today. Tonight should colder NYC. Possibly?? the coldest of the season NYC Thu the 27th?  

And I see the potential easing of the cold in early Feb but until the ridge disappears AK, we still have pretty sizable source of cold enough air early Feb to spread into the region I80 north, as I see it. Big se USA ridge could come earlier but for now, it's not there, at least as far as I can tell. 

Thanks Walt. 

The models look paltry w/r/t snowfall. If it pans out this way it would be shocking that we did not experience even one moderate snowfall for the 2nd half of the month.

I for one am shocked.

We probably end up with a moderate event during a Feb torch period like Feb 2018.

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Great it weakens towards spring to ruin that weather too. Who wants 50s in February and April.

I’m hoping it’s delayed so that we get this in March… cold and muddy in March just means fewer practices on grass and my lawn getting a late start. C’est la vie.


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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 0Z EPS and GEFS are already pushing back the warm up they were showing in early February. So while the retrogression of the ridge back to the Aleutians still occurs, heights remain lower in the Northeast. Whether the extension of the late January colder pattern into early February results in a decent snowstorm remains to be seen. The southern stream suppression has been our biggest challenge this month so far.


New run

9EB83885-5D5B-4089-BE25-3E190CED4225.thumb.png.9b57751a0bed1f6b8f6942817958e0cb.png
 

Old run

 

0BE5A1B5-7D60-4498-A0DA-ED8E1C926139.thumb.png.ca9f1c12102f7acc811ebfe9326dd9c3.png

 

 

Shocked nothing has shown up during this second half of Jan. So far and as modeled.

Understand the fast flow and wave spacing but no luck at all is amazing to me.

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I think it has been a descent January.

Nice and cold. A few snow events (a little paltry) but my lawn has had some  snow on it for most of month without the hassle of widespread deep snow cover

Much better than some past winters of constant warmth

Like other posters mentioned, I also dont get the torch/snow lovers.

There is so much more to winter than a day of snow: skiing, skating, clean air with great visibility, the crisp morning air, stepping out of a hot bar to smoke a cigarette in the cold with friends.

In an increasingly hot and humid climate, it is a nice reprieve. Enjoy it. 

Up to 11F :) In terms of extremes, I will take this over 100F anyday

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22 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I think it has been a descent January.

Nice and cold. A few snow events (a little paltry) but my lawn has had some  snow on it for most of month without the hassle of widespread deep snow cover

Much better than some past winters of constant warmth

Like other posters mentioned, I also dont get the torch/snow lovers.

There is so much more to winter than a day of snow: skiing, skating, clean air with great visibility, the crisp morning air, stepping out of a hot bar to smoke a cigarette in the cold with friends.

In an increasingly hot and humid climate, it is a nice reprieve. Enjoy it. 

Up to 11F :) In terms of extremes, I will take this over 100F anyday

This guy winters. 
 

I can’t stand the torchy patterns or, worse, torchy winters. It’s depressing and reminds me of the general trend of where we’re headed. Seasonal variation is a nice thing to have, and a little cold air is good for the soul.

I completely respect a “to each their own” approach, but I 100% prefer cold and dry to hot and humid. 
 

Frankly I don’t enjoy the way NJ does heat, the humidity makes it unbearable for me. Writing is on the wall that it’s time for my wife and I to consider moving out of here.

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The temperatures this month are certainly feeling more winter-like for a change. NYC already has 5 days with a low under 20 this January with more to come. This is the most for any winter month in 3 years. These colder winter months have been few and far between since 15-16.


Colder than average months bolded with 5 out of 20
 

Monthly Number of Days Min Temperature < 20 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Jan
Feb
Season
2021-2022 0 5 M 4
2020-2021 0 2 1 3
2019-2020 1 0 2 3
2018-2019 0 5 2 7
2017-2018 5 13 2 20
2016-2017 2 2 2 6
2015-2016 0 4 5 9
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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Got down to 9 here-another night of single digits....cold month.

Despite what little snow we've seen, it's been pretty cold.  More single digit nights than we've had the last couple winters here.

Not only that, but there hasn't been a thaw yet.  The snow cover is minimal but has stuck around pretty well.

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Despite what little snow we've seen, it's been pretty cold.  More single digit nights than we've had the last couple winters here.
Not only that, but there hasn't been a thaw yet.  The snow cover is minimal but has stuck around pretty well.

It’s good, too, to have this bitter cold with a relative lack of snowcover to help keep a lot of insect and invasive plant populations in check near your home.


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I’ve often tried to research weather reports from the LIA (Little Ice Age) and the magnitude of the cold during the worst winters of that period I can’t even fathom, and I’ve no idea how modern people today would adjust. It was just such a different climate back then. 
 

Despite my name I don’t subscribe fully to the notion that the LIA was “caused” by large scale volcanism, rather it was enhanced in certain years. Even very large eruptions haven’t conclusively been proven to impact the climate for a period longer than a decade at the extreme end. The LIA was just a very cold oscillation that got punctuated by additional forcings. 
 

Regardless, I routinely daydream about what that period would’ve been like in our area. 
 

(If stuff like this is better served in the banter thread please ignore, I’m still a bit new here and this is quite a slow period). 

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45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

February is one of the few months of the cold season when a -PNA  gradient pattern can work for us. The EPS moved to this look during the first of February. Maybe this would take the January suppression off the table? But mixed precipitation issues could arise if the gradient is too far north. 

E51C29A0-2B2E-4B62-9C52-E6AF1B28EC8B.png.f8d6f387d9c9845163d27aafd483f4b2.png

 

It could work out but it could also be a not quite cold enough modified CP air mass bumping into cool not cold maritime air leaving us with 31-33° rain. 

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25 minutes ago, Greg g said:

What is Tuesday looking like at this point ??

A chance of rain or snow showers, no major storm here. The flow is too flat/fast and the northern and southern streams do not phase. Moisture from the southern system slips out well to our south and the snow showers we would get would be from the cold front. Onto the 28th-30th. 

WX/PT

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30 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

A chance of rain or snow showers, no major storm here. The flow is too flat/fast and the northern and southern streams do not phase. Moisture from the southern system slips out well to our south and the snow showers we would get would be from the cold front. Onto the 28th-30th. 

WX/PT

I see 12z GGEM is giving areas just slightly to the northwest of NYC a significant snowstorm late tuesday, and changes the city over to snow for a few hours at the end with a couple inches. I assume GGEM is off on this though. This scenario doesn't seem very realistic for the reasons you stated.

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see 12z GGEM is giving areas just slightly to the northwest of NYC a significant snowstorm late tuesday, and changes the city over to snow for a few hours at the end with a couple inches. I assume GGEM is off on this though. This scenario doesn't seem very realistic for the reasons you stated.

It still looks interesting to keep an eye on

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7 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

I highly doubt that’s  accurate. I really don’t see Augusta Georgia getting 2 1/2 feet of snow but than again after this winter who knows 

Of course it’s likely not accurate at this point. Hopefully if other models start to show a storm signal for that time period the takeaway is an event to track and hopefully something productive. Not ready to write winter off despite it at times making me feel I’d be better off doing so. 

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