Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,125
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    laikakat
    Newest Member
    laikakat
    Joined

January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
 Share

Recommended Posts

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1641686400-1642204800-1643068800-10-1.thumb.gif.05fadbeca58ddda0a0e0b3e03bcb5f46.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1641686400-1642204800-1642982400-10-1.thumb.gif.70319252d1ceaa96dfe16d4deb3ae65e.gif

This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why:gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-2766400.thumb.png.eb81b44cd6e180b4c75f2fd0e443862d.png

Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. 

The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms.

There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past.

Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

  • Like 18
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol at infighting over anything a week out. Ray needs Bergs edibles. Lol 

Long week of tracking while the deck pops from cold expansion.  Minus 30 departure incoming 

 

Hi Lars

My house was making all kinds of crazy expansion noises last night. It went from 17 to 32 in less than 10 mins last night. 

HVN obs.

23.20 17.6   N 0

23:25 21.2  SW 6.9

23:30 32    S 8

 

time_chart_dyn (4).png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1641686400-1642204800-1643068800-10-1.thumb.gif.05fadbeca58ddda0a0e0b3e03bcb5f46.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1641686400-1642204800-1642982400-10-1.thumb.gif.70319252d1ceaa96dfe16d4deb3ae65e.gif

This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why:gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-2766400.thumb.png.eb81b44cd6e180b4c75f2fd0e443862d.png

Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. 

The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms.

There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past.

Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

Good animations there. The STJ is an interesting addition recently. It should make things really interesting. Northern stream is still dominant which is good for New England (unlike some years when it’s congrats M.A.) but adding extra STJ moisture could make it more exciting. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1641686400-1642204800-1643068800-10-1.thumb.gif.05fadbeca58ddda0a0e0b3e03bcb5f46.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1641686400-1642204800-1642982400-10-1.thumb.gif.70319252d1ceaa96dfe16d4deb3ae65e.gif

This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why:gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-2766400.thumb.png.eb81b44cd6e180b4c75f2fd0e443862d.png

Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. 

The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms.

There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past.

Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

Thanks great writeup. Totally on board with your thinking. Certainly has that 13 to 15 look. All aboard the weenie train. We are headed towards Epicosity city, last train leaves the 17th. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

24°  FZRA

It’s coming down hard enough that it’s sticking to surfaces but not so much to the trees branches or wires etc.  The roads are going to be a mess for a little while.

Congrats in the CAD zone

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL:

This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why:

Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. 

The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms.

There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past.

Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

Excellent breakdown, very impressed, and i agree.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...