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November 28-29 Storm Threat


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t believe in these weak progressive solutions at all, not with the North Atlantic blocking in place. The low is going to deepen a lot more than expected, and someone is going to get over a foot. 

Yeah, I have some friends in Labrador.

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19 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t believe in these weak progressive solutions at all, not with the North Atlantic blocking in place. The low is going to deepen a lot more than expected, and someone is going to get over a foot. 

It's not a block...its a transient ridge that is collapsing as the system approaches, as is the PNA ridge.

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33 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I’ve had 12” before in Nov but that’s rare air, Avg is 3.5” here for November so there is a lot of skunks in there too.

I think for ORH the only ones I can think of are 1898 and 1971 off the top of my head. Maybe I missed one. There’s plenty of 6-10” type storms in there but 12+ is truly rare that early. 

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think for ORH the only ones I can think of are 1898 and 1971 off the top of my head. Maybe I missed one. There’s plenty of 6-10” type storms in there but 12+ is truly rare that early. 

We had a good one in 2014, and also 2011 (which ended up being the last big one for the season :lol:)

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The key is that northern stream shortwave. On these lighter solutions it’s coming in flatter and not digging. The bigger solutions were closing that sucker off well south into NJ and S of LI. Now it’s kind of crossing overhead...it still produces a period of light snow because of some good divergence aloft just ahead of the PVA, but you’re not getting an organized conveyor system going. 

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42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember a time when even 1-2" in Novie was still thread worthy.

I remember when 1 to 2 was puff puff pass only Ginx pops a woody for that ,was your line. LOL. So much time still left for this to come back or fizzle. Would be extremely funny if the anafrontal produced more snow  tomorrow night than Sun night though.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I remember when 1 to 2 was puff puff pass only Ginx pops a woody for that ,was your line. LOL. So much time still left for this to come back or fizzle. Would be extremely funny if the anafrontal produced more snow  tomorrow night than Sun night though.

In November?

I never said that.

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2 hours ago, George001 said:

My forecast:

eastern mass- 12-18 iso 24

central and western mass: 6-12

i haven’t seen any reason to change it yet.

Although I appreciate your enthusiasm, you do realize that there is zero model support for your snowfall prediction. I don't mean to be harah, but, there us wishful thinking, and there is being realistic. No one will fault you for being overly optomistic, but, its time to face the reality. This storm may bring the area 2"-4" or 3"-6" at best

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