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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I tested positive on Friday (Christmas Eve).  Messed up the holiday for us, but I'm not sick.  Had a scratchy throat one night; that's it.  Wife still has me locked in the cupboard under the stairs.  Lose track of time in here alternating between digging an escape tunnel and reading AMWx.   She's not impressed with CDC halving the quarantine guideline from 10 days to 5.  damned nurses.

That’s almost worse than being sicker!   So you’re waiting till the 3rd?   Good luck Ed!

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Sometimes winter biased patterns will sea-saw, too - there's that... 

Patterns come and go, the transient ones... But there are those 'footed' types, that appear to be the return, or base-line, after those either transient looks either constructively or destructively play out over top. 

The typical gestation of the returning base-line pattern is seldom longer than 45 days ... Rarely, you can get 90 persistence but that seldom occurs - I don't think I've ever seen that, personal.  

Case in point, the winter of 1995-1996, a very good example of the above playing out. There were three patterns that very coherently characterized that long winter. The first was early November through middle January. It was a neutral PNA in a slower flow, while pulsing -NAOs that favored the western limb of the domain.  Sometimes there was more of a physical block, but other times ... trough/storm routing just seemed to move as though the block were still there - that's the non-linearity of the Pacific R-wave forcing, ...which officially checks out the reader - LOL.  Anyway, it fit right into the 45 day model really...

Then there was a break, a hUge thaw that came with it.  Something triggered an impressive whole-scale hemispheric/R-wave repositioning event.  I recall the Pacific from Japan all the way around the globe reconstructed - this forced retrograding W ( or progressing E... six'o dozen) of the persistent cold over eastern N/A.  but it ony lasted 2 to 3 weeks, a time in which we saw striking reversal of winter fortune, with some big snows and cold retrograding back to the NP to western Great Lakes, while back east flipped from deep cold and prolific snow fall anomalies, to staggering warmth.  It was a short gestation however. Not sure what happened to end it, but it proved to be more of an interlude pattern.

What set back in really wasn't the same as the Nov-Jan pattern; in other words, it did not appear to merely return - least not per what I remember of the behavior.  Nevertheless, and much to the joyous exhalation of the enduring winter weather enthusiasts, cold and snow returned, and the new paradigm lasted into mid April. I've had conversations with other Meteorologist, what would have been of that year, if that mid interlude did not take place.  What if the three deep cutters just did what all others did.  That one would have blown 2015 out of the water, ... because it was a continental -scaled event anomaly.  2015 was more local to New England.  Not a 90-day variation.

Two 45-day patterns, interceded with one that may have actually ( interestingly ...) been more statistically likely to be the case given to the weak-ish cool ENSO going on during an era when ENSO's meant shit ( half kiddin).  Not to start a causality squabble, but I do wonder if what we are seeing so far this year could be La Nina forcing that is constructively interfering with EAMT tendencies - together that's getting the hemisphere 'stuck' in a sense... It's all speculation of course... but I know that this pattern persistence has "over-performed" relative to ENSO alone. Something is giving it a kick-back.

Anyway, we've been pummeled with highly realized -PNA negative interference pattern over eastern N/A mid latitudes, and it has lasted over a month.  I'm personally interested in how the next 10 days start behaving, as to whether these gestation lengths get tested.

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