MJO812 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wow … that is one deliciously nasty storm in the GFS D8/9 …10 its like .7” accretion over to 45mph CCB snows … There’d have to be two fade in headlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas weenies 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas! Edit: got in a walk after sunset and got a nice view of the valley landscape. Edited, but really cool to see the skyline at night. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Merry Christmas weenies Merry Christmas. Stay safe out in the streets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2021 Author Share Posted December 25, 2021 6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder if there's ever been a teleconnection calculated using the circulation mode over Japan ...around the world? That'd be cool, heh. There's are little known rule of thumbs out there. Like, tornadoes in Michigan tend to offend New England 24 hrs later. Or troughs over eastern N/A tend to correlate with troughs of western Europe. I can imagine these types of concurrency are more related to geometry/R-wave distribution. And if so, wonder how far that extends. There's obviously an Indian Ocean telecon with the -NAO... so - good post though. You should chat with Weatherwiz - another Met that bops around the forum. He was all over the Asian feed and needing that to change the relay into the Pacific. I think he even said words to the affect ( or is 'e'ffect) of, ' ...won't see a real change until that happens'. Maybe this is it? I happened to agree with him. Part of the reason for the MJO stall in 7 is that the wave is having mechanical trouble propagating out of the Marine district, ...I suspect the reason for that stall may very well be because given the west Pacific torque model as it is dispersing off eastern Asia, it may be suppressing/ destructive wave interference. CPC's been blaming it on the La Nina footprint of the hemisphere; they may be entirely right. But I have my doubts whether that part of it is the 'cause' vs more coincidence. The last several ENSO events have performed poorly in coupling to the hemisphere base-line circulation, so suddenly this one is? Okay. Personally, ...I discussed that apparent breakdown over the last years, and that I thought this year would pass the hemisphere in and out of La Nina; ha, if I'm going to be right about that, now might be a good time for your +EAMT to get real. Maybe the MJO then starts propagating into 8 and beyond, if/when that happens.. .There are more individual members on the RMM that appear to curl.. .and I also noticed the operational GFS and Euro version began yesterday, rolling SPV saws through lower Canada - yeah...something could be brewing along the lines of pattern/wave# change. John, there is zero doubt this particular ENSO event is well coupled with the atmosphere. I understand the HC ENSO dampening phenomenon, but this one has had very robust MEI and atmospheric foot print all along. It's no coincidence this year...its la nina. I mean, there is usually going to be SOME intraseasonal forcing variation, but this one is def not in the same ball park as the past several ENSO events. Def the most impressive event since the super el Nino and most impressive la nina since 2010-2011. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2021 Author Share Posted December 25, 2021 10 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Printed Ray’s December forecast and got this going good. LMAO I nailed the blocking part....but missing the record breaking RNA was a death knell. I knew the season would be RNA in the mean, but though Dec would have more variability. Let's see how the season goes...its tough to get the monthly progression perfectly, but willing to bet my overall seasonal will be decent. Like last year...I missed February, but it was actually my best forecast ever in the aggregate. I stand by this year's forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2021 Author Share Posted December 25, 2021 10 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I’m just kidding with Ray. His outlooks honestly top what the pros have. I’m just having some fun. No offense taken, man...all in good fun. Merry Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2021 Author Share Posted December 25, 2021 15 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I found this beer .. small brewery out of Kansas City - well ...may be bigger now, or no longer exist, not sure. They were called "Sixth Glass." They made this amazing 10.4% potent IPA that had an almost creamy sort of velvety finish to it. It was amazing. It went well with just about any meal, or just nursing during the game - multi utility, and yes... given to the 10.4%, you really only need a couple of them. If downed on an empty stomach, perhaps only one. Amazing beer. Now ... personally, I haven't drank any alcohol in 7 years - despite the marketing pitch above. Ha. But I had to make the conscience choice for better over worse. I wasn't an alcoholic .. .at least I don't think? But, I did at the time feel I was engaging in life style that was not healthy, too often. The proof of that, I was beginning to manifest physical oddities that I don't care to delve into -LOL. Anyway, since stopping, all vitals are vastly improved and I weigh like 180 .. .Turns out, I'm actually a tall slender bloke - not that barrel chested after all. Probably TMI but ...I guess one doesn't always know when a lifestyle is creeping into a dangerous territory. It can be a very gradual process, where one's body adapts over time; meanwhile, the adaptation is muting the sensation of the erosion going on - then there you are ... hosting an uneasy conversation with a doctor...etc. I mean, I wasn't even getting much in the way of hang-overs like ever... Yet I could put away a bottle of wine and one of those IPA's above every night. Go to work fine the next morning... fine. Gradually got to that state over years. So, I suppose I needed the change at the time - duh. But it went painless for me. No withdrawal bullshit or cravings. Nothing. Stopped one night on a dime and never went back... I really only missed the cigars I used to have along with - that's really a nice combination. Really soothing. Tie one one then spark up a blunt... My god, can't believe I used to engage like that. Now? I work out every day crazy -like. I run 10K, then bike 24 miles the next day, then do an hour on the full press Elliptical, and weight train every other work out. Eat organic, high in fruit and veggies. Lots of water. Sleep regular...basically, no life. But hey, I feel topico! 9 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said: You probably saved your own life by giving that particular vice up. I’m not a doctor but Those “oddities” were probably caused by alcoholic hepatitis of the liver. And you don’t have to be an alcoholic to get that. You just have to drink a lot. I once drank very heavily for a year, and had trouble stopping. In the end I treat my mental health with medications and that reduced my need and cravings for things that endanger my health so I am doing a lot better today. Kudos gents. I will have 8 years in February and can honestly say that that decision has saved me in every way that a person can be saved. Nothing against those that drink, it works for plenty of people, but not for me. I and everyone around me is better for it. Happy Holidays. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 The weather channel just had a video of it snowing in Tolland yesterday Kevs town is famous today! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: The weather channel just had a video of it snowing in Tolland yesterday Kevs town is famous today! It’s a Christmas miracle 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas weenies. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Merry Christmas weenies. Same to you man. And everyone else. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas everyone! Hope all of you have a great day! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 I split the ice/snow obs off into the existing thread. Let’s keep it there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Just looked at the 06z GFS, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just looked at the 06z GFS, lol. We can always go higher. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 T-blizz just shed a tear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: We can always go higher. If need be, Kuchie had quite a few 50"+ spots......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: We can always go higher. Good morning and Merry and Happy D. Even though many of us remain sheltered in the warmth of our coastal plain, that graphic is just how it should be and may the light colors intensify and spread as far as climatologically possible. As always … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: We can always go higher. 0.8” at TAN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 I would like to see it happen just for the melt post. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: I would like to see it happen just for the melt post. Ray with 12” and areas 10mi NW of him get 25”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Xmas Guys. I hope everyone truly has a wonderful day with their families and friends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: John, there is zero doubt this particular ENSO event is well coupled with the atmosphere. I understand the HC ENSO dampening phenomenon, but this one has had very robust MEI and atmospheric foot print all along. It's no coincidence this year...its la nina. I mean, there is usually going to be SOME intraseasonal forcing variation, but this one is def not in the same ball park as the past several ENSO events. Def the most impressive event since the super el Nino and most impressive la nina since 2010-2011. Wasn’t the super elnino 2016? He’s saying 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 One of the side roads in our town. I saw Marchand skate past 6 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas everyone! Be safe out there today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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